NFL Week 4 picks: Back the Vikings, and more best bets against the spread from Las Vegas SuperContest expert

We crushed it in Week 3, sweeping the Circa Sports Million picks and going 4-1 in the Westgate SuperContest. The Packers, Lions, Cowboys and Browns, all of which appeared on both contest cards, all came in relatively easily, and I only missed a 10-0 week because I didn't have enough courage to back the Chargers in both contests, instead pivoting to the Giants. Can't win 'em all, I guess. However, the big weeks put me at 10-5 in the Circa and 9-6 in the Westgate, which I'll definitely take after three weeks.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, one of my favorite picks is a home underdog: the Minnesota Vikings +2 vs. the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns looked stellar in Week 1, though they were unable to finish off the Chiefs. The next week, they struggled early as big favorites against the Texans before putting them away after Tyrod Taylor exited the game due to injury. Last week, the Browns put together a dominant performance over the Bears, which I believe is a large reason why they're road favorites here. But shutting down a Bears offense with Justin Fields making his first career start really isn't that impressive, especially when Chicago seemed intent on making the rookie execute the worst gameplan they could imagine.

An overtime loss to the Bengals quickly took the bloom off the rose for the Vikings, and after a close loss to the Cardinals, the market seemed to turn on Minnesota. But the Vikings impressed in a home win over the Seahawks last week, and I don't feel they're getting full credit for how well the offense is playing on this line. Yes, the defense has for the most part struggled, but they could have some success here against a Browns team dealing with injuries across the offensive line and down a key part of the passing game in Jarvis Landry. The Vikings have one of the home-field advantages that matter the most, and that crowd is going to show up and help push this team to victory.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below, including a winless team I'm for some reason trusting enough to put on both cards.

So which teams should you back in Week 4? And which big underdogs keep it close?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 4, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!