Our top teaser option last week in the Bills had no trouble covering the full spread, but the rest of the teaser board was a minefield. The ideal second legs were the 49ers, saving all bettors from Sean McVay's useless last-second field goal, or the Steelers, who won outright. Two more options for us, the Texans and Falcons, ended up landing on unteasable numbers, while the Bears were the one team who likely ruined a lot of teasers last week.
If you've read my other content or followed my picks, you likely already know I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. When it comes to teasers, we stress focusing on the options that go through Teaser Alley and ideally lining up with sides you already like against the main number.
If you don't know what Teaser Alley is, read on to find out. Even if you do, I'll go through every game where I believe there's a teaseable number, give you my analysis of whether it's worth putting in our bucket of potential plays, and then ranking those plays at the end, with the top two representing the best teaser play you can make this week. But if you disagree with any of the analysis for those two teaser legs, you have all the info you need to find other teaser-worthy options.
You may see the Seahawks as -6 and think that's a solid teaser option, but I'd avoid that number when building teasers. Even at the -120 price we stress you get for teasers, you have to beat 54.5% probability to cash, which means each leg has to have roughly a 74% chance of hitting. That translates to about a -285 on each leg, and if you compare that number to the Seahawks moneyline at -6, you'll see you get a much better return on your investment by going that route, while the -285 price is more what you'll find on -6.5 teams. If you really want to play a 6.5-point favorite on a six-point, -120 teaser, that's at least closer to the correct value, but you'll have to fade those rare ties that pop up every so often.
Now let's get to the teaser legs I do think are worth considering.
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