NFL Week 3 odds, betting trends: Home-field advantage has been disadvantage against spread so far

This writer will admit that he was in the camp that home-field advantage in the NFL early this season would mean more than it had in years simply because most teams played in empty stadiums in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic and that fan noise would be such a disadvantage for visiting clubs. Of the 256 games last regular season, home teams went 127-128-1 straight up on NFL picks. However, through two weeks of the 2021 campaign, the return of fans hasn't meant much in terms of favoring home teams.

It should be noted that some clubs haven't had their home opener yet – the Denver Broncos have theirs Sunday as 10.5-point favorites against the New York Jets; the Minnesota Vikings also do Sunday as short underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks; the San Francisco host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night; and the Dallas Cowboys play their first home game of 2021 at JerryWorld in the Monday nighter against Philadelphia.

Entering Week 3, home teams are just 16-16 straight up and 13-19 against the spread (those numbers include the New Orleans Saints as the "home" team Week 1 vs. Green Bay in Jacksonville, Fla.). Home favorites are an ugly 5-13 ATS.

For years, oddsmakers generally agreed that home-field advantage in the NFL was around 2.8 points, but the industry standard has dropped to 1.5-2.0 points. Last season purely from a statistical standpoint, NFL home-field advantage was worth 0.175 points. So far this season: -0.57 points. Eleven of 16 home teams are favored in Week 3.

There also have been plenty of close games so far with 10 decided by a field goal or less. That's tied for the fourth-most such contests in NFL history through Week 2.

There are five teams entering Week 2 with a 0-2 against the spread record: Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, Football Team, Falcons. Over the past five seasons, teams that start 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in Week 3.

The Broncos, Cowboys, Texans, Panthers and Raiders are the lone 2-0 ATS teams. All are solid favorites for Week 3 except Houston, which is +8 tonight at home vs. Carolina. It's the Panthers' first road game – they are the NFL's lone 2-0 ATS home club. 

Who wins every NFL game? And which teams will sink your bankroll? Join SportsLine now to get NFL picks every week, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and is up almost $8,000.