NFL Week 17 odds, betting trends: Texans taking biggest spread lean of any team with 49ers likely starting Trey Lance at quarterback

Houston might be the least-talented team in the NFL with Deshaun Watson not playing, but no club is taking a bigger lean on the spread at Caesars Sportsbook in Week 17 than the Texans even though they are double-digit underdogs at playoff-hopeful San Francisco on Sunday. Currently, the Niners are -12.5, but that number was much higher.

While the Texans are playing out the string, San Francisco would clinch a playoff spot with a win and Saints loss at home to Carolina – that kicks off in the same late-afternoon window. Not likely that New Orleans loses that one.

Clearly, not having a starting quarterback trumps motivation in the bettors' minds for this game because early in the week it wasn't public knowledge that the Niners' Jimmy Garoppolo hurt his thumb in last week's loss at Tennessee. Coach Kyle Shanahan has said all week that Jimmy G has a chance to play through it, but he hasn't practiced at all so it likely will be raw rookie Trey Lance making his second start and seeing his first significant action since that game, a 17-10 loss at Arizona in Week 5.

The Niners have thus dropped from an open of -15 to -12.5, the biggest spread shift at the book. The Texans lead every team in Week 17 in both total number of tickets (86 percent) and total dollars wagered (97 percent) on their respective spread. Houston did upset the Chargers last week.

"It all hinges on the Garoppolo news," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "If the 49ers say he's going to play that line should creep back up, and if he's ruled out it's going to come down a little bit. I think the public is taking a wait-and-see look, they're going to be more hesitant to lay all those points with that uncertainty at quarterback. I think that's something that should shy them away from including the 49ers with the other big favorites in moneyline parlays this week. Just comparing them with the Bucs, Bills and Patriots, all the other games are like double what the moneyline parlay amounts are than the 49ers. Clearly they feel less safe about that one than the other three double-digit favorites."

The red-hot Kansas City Chiefs have won eight in a row and are 5-point favorites at AFC North-leading Cincinnati. Kansas City would clinch the AFC's top seed with a victory and Titans loss at home to Miami. Bettors are hammering Patrick Mahomes & Co. with 81 percent of the money and 71 percent of the tickets.

"The Chiefs are an incredibly public team, and the public sees that they've hit their stride," said Pullen. "The sharps may be sitting and waiting to see how high this line goes. But it seems like the public is back on that mentality of betting the Chiefs no matter what and they're back to drawing a lot of action. Chiefs-Bengals, Cardinals-Cowboys and Vikings-Packers, those three games will have the biggest handles on Sunday for us for sure."

One unusual split is on Raiders at Colts. When the Carson Wentz positive COVID test news broke early this week, some books shifted the line all the way down to Colts -1.5. Caesars kept it at Colts -6.5 (now -7), and the new NFL protocols give Wentz a chance of playing Sunday. A total of 89 percent of the money is on the Raiders (i.e. those hoping Wentz doesn't play) but 52 percent of the tickets are on Indy. Whether it's Wentz or rookie Sam Ehlinger under center is not expected to be known until Sunday morning. 

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