The Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 17, and it's a critical matchup in determining the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Buffalo (12-3) has won six straight games and can clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory and a Chiefs loss in NFL Week 17. The Bengals (11-4) have won seven in a row but need to win their final two and get some help to earn the top seed. It will be the first matchup between top quarterbacks Josh Allen of Buffalo and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow.    

Kickoff at Cincinnati's Paycor Stadium is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Bills are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Bills vs. Bengals odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 50.5. 

Before you make any Bengals vs. Bills picks of your own, you NEED to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 158-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

The model knows Buffalo has the second-best offense in the league, a unit that averages 402 yards per game and scores 28 points (fourth). The Bills rank in the top 10 in rushing and passing, and Allen does both. He has 4,029 passing yards and 32 touchdowns and 746 rushing yards and seven more scores. Receiver Stefon Diggs is third in the league with 1,325 receiving yards and has scored 10 times. Running back Devin Singletary has 1,067 total yards. The Bills defense allows 17.5 points per contest (second in NFL).      

The model also has considered that the Bengals have the No. 6 scoring offense (26 PPG) and ninth-best scoring defense (20 PPG). Burrow is second in the NFL with 4,260 passing yards and 34 TDs. He threw for 375 yards in a Week 16 victory against New England. Receiver Ja'Marr Chase has 960 yards and eight TDs despite missing four games, and Tee Higgins has 1,022 yards and seven scores. The Bengals are plus-3 in turnover margin, while the Bills are even and are tied for second-most turnovers in the NFL (24).      

Now, the model has broken down the Monday Night Football Bills vs. Bengals matchup from all angles. We can tell you the model is leaning Under the total, and it says one side of the spread has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.

So who wins Bengals vs. Bills on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread has ALL the value? Join SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Bengals spread to back, all from the model that's an amazing 158-113 on NFL picks!