NFL Week 15 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 16 lines
Mike Tierney reviews this past week's betting results and previews some of Week 16's line movement
Of the 15 completed NFL games in Week 15, a dozen were decided by one score — eight points or fewer. The three others came close; the margins were nine, 10 and 11.
Moral of the story: Avoid double-digit favorites except under unusual circumstances. Particularly so if a line is colossal, such as Kansas City (-14) against Houston on Sunday. Take a torch to the analytics and go with the underdog against the spread. Be wary of even the only possible two-score spot below double digits. Case in point: Philadelphia (-9) failed to cover against Chicago, winning by five.
Here's a P.S. to today's lesson.
Three games went to overtime, and a fourth — Las Vegas-New England — by all rights should have joined them. Two more would have, too, if not for tie-breaking field goals on the final snaps. When so many go down to the wire, yielding a team two scores on your wagers is akin to walking on a high-wire.
On to a betting review of one of the NFL's wackiest weekends in its 103 seasons, plus a peak ahead to the next set of spreads.
Top 'Dogs
The uppermost underdog winner was Jacksonville, which trailed Dallas by 17 points with 19 minutes remaining.
Within the next nine minutes, quarterback Trevor Lawrence bunched three touchdown passes — he had another earlier — yet the Jaguars still needed a buzzer-beating field goal to force overtime. A pick-six won it 40-34 for the Jaguars, who were the biggest underdogs at +4 to triumph outright.
Let's give a half-nod to three other 'dogs by smaller spreads that triumphed.
Detroit (+2), which entered on a 6-1 straight-up streak and was surely offended to be receiving points, downed the New York Jets 20-17. Pittsburgh (+3), with backup QB Mitch Trubisky, disposed of Carolina 24-16. The New York Giants (+3.5) got some timely plays and friendly officiating to knock off Washington 20-12.
Bad Beats
Generally, when a ball-carrier intentionally goes down shy of the goal line instead of crossing it, his team is ahead.
Saturday night, some TV watchers must have wondered if the snow flurries had distorted their view when Buffalo running back Devin Singletary hit the turf with a half-minute left at Miami's four-yard line in a tie game. Had Singletary scored and the Bills converted the point-after, they would have gone ahead by seven — almost guaranteeing a push.
The tactic set up a tap-in field goal on the last play, giving Buffalo a 32-29 win but its backers an against-the-spread loss.
Totals players endured a few painful setbacks.
Carolina drilled a 52-yard field goal with 19 seconds left in a 24-16 defeat that delivered an Over against Pittsburgh, with the number at 37.5.
The Eagles were in Bears' territory for nearly the closing three minutes, and a field goal would have vaulted the score of 25-20 to an Over with a total of 47.5. Philadelphia advanced as far as Chicago's 28-yard line while draining the clock.
We would be remiss not to cite an almost-bad beat for the ages.
On Saturday, Indianapolis supporters at halftime were imagining what holiday gifts they could purchase with their bounty. The Colts led 33-0, and the +3.5 points appeared secure. Fast-forward to overtime. Minnesota was marching toward a score that would cap the most massive comeback in NFL annals, and a TD would turn a locked-up ATS win for Indy into a catastrophic defeat.
The Vikings settled for a field goal for a 39-36 win as the Colts had all but a half-point of their 36.5-point ATS lead disappear.
How The Books Fared
Underdogs covering customarily means wins for the sportsbooks. As ESPN noted, 'dogs swept the six games in the early Sunday window, but favorites fought back in the latter session with three wins and a push.
However, Caesars took a hit when the underdog Giants won. More than four of five dollars were targeted on New York.
The two other games with the most imbalanced betting also became profitable for the public. About 90% sided with Cincinnati (-3.5), a 34-23 victor over Tampa Bay, while a comparable portion backed Denver (-1.5) for its 24-15 triumph over Arizona.
Week 16 Line Moves
Jacksonville's upset impressed the public. It has flipped the Jags from +1.5 to -1.5 in the Thursday nighter against the Jets, whose loss also played into the change of opinion.
The lines for four other matchups had moved by 1.5 points by noon Monday, though all four favorites retained their status. Here are the current lines, with the originals in parentheses.
- Baltimore -8.5 vs. Atlanta (-10)
- Tennessee -7 vs. Houston (-8.5)
- Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Las Vegas (-1)
- Tampa Bay -4.5 at Arizona (-3)
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