The Lions may have locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC with the win over the Packers on Thursday night that featured four gutsy fourth-down calls, three of which worked out. The first two resulted in touchdowns on a fourth-and-goal situation, with Dan Campbell foregoing a nearly automatic three points to get the touchdown, both of which he ended up needing with a three-point final margin. The Lions also went for it on fourth down with less than a minute remaining and the game tied, adamant not to give the ball back to the Packers with any time left on the clock if possible.

If we get an NFC Championship between the Lions and the Eagles, where Detroit is doing this and Philadelphia is going for any fourth down of 1-2 yards, just a few plays are going to determine whether we get a nail-biter that goes down to the wire or one team winning by 20-plus. Either way, it would certainly be a fun matchup.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm trusting that a team with nothing to play for shows up again and taking the Cleveland Browns +7 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Browns just won this matchup in snowy conditions two weeks ago despite a minus-2 turnover margin and led for most of the game, but the following week they lost and failed to cover in Denver despite racking up 552 yards of offense. Cleveland has turned the ball over three times in three of Jameis Winston's five starts, and it's hard to win a game when you don't protect the football. But this is more about a Steelers team that shouldn't be favored by a full touchdown against any team with a pulse. Not only are they 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites of more than a field goal, but the one cover hinged on a punt return touchdown, a low-probability play that can't be counted on moving forward. They've also had three takeaways in each of their last three games and failed to win any by seven points or more. This should be a back-and-forth shootout where even if the Steelers are up two scores late, the Browns find a way to backdoor the cover.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 14 below.

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