NFL Week 13 odds, trends: Bettors bashing under totals in Colts vs. Texans and Lions vs. Bears

It's no secret that this has been one of the highest-scoring NFL seasons ever, but with the weather turning cold in large portions of the USA and perhaps defensive coordinators figuring things out, bettors are starting to see a shift from games landing Over the total at William Hill Sportsbook to the Under. There are two games in Week 13 taking heavy leans to the Under – Colts vs. Titans and Lions vs. Bears – and that would have been unheard of just a few week ago.

Unders went 10-6 in Week 12 and have now won three straight weeks, cutting the overall lead by Overs to 89-84-4 overall (51.4%).

In terms of money wagered, the heaviest Under lean is on Indianapolis at Houston with 96 percent of the lean toward the Under 51.5 points. That number opened at 54.5, and it's not like weather will be factor at NRG Stadium, which has a retractable roof that is usually closed.  Indianapolis has gone Over its total in six of the past seven games as the defense has sprung a leak – although Pro Bowl defensive end DeForest Buckner will be back this week.

"I was very surprised by how much the total for Colts-Texans has moved," said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading at William Hill US. "This is a Colts defense that has looked quite vulnerable the past two games against the Packers and Titans. I'm expecting a high-scoring game here, but the professionals acted fast once it opened at 54.5. Their algorithms made it lower so they played the under, standard operating procedure for them."

It will be a bit chilly in Chicago on Sunday but otherwise a very nice day with the Lions in town. That total is set at a low 44.5 and is still taking 95 percent of all money wagered on the Under. That Bears offense has been terrible all season – Mitchell Trubisky will start under center for the second straight week -- and the Under is 4-1 in Chicago's five home games this year.

"Yeah the Bears offense has been putrid, but it's counterbalanced by Detroit, whose defense is so horrific," said Bogdanovich. "They also fired their coach, so they're in disarray. Chicago's offense might look like Alabama's this week. So that's a tricky one, and you've got to factor in weather too. A lot of moving parts there."

The lowest total of the week is Bengals at Dolphins – no Joe Burrow and perhaps no Tua Tagovailoa -- with a number of 42.5, and bettors are going Over in both money wagered (69 percent) and tickets sold (61 percent).

The highest Over lean in terms of money bet is on Broncos at Chiefs, with 92 percent on the Over of 51 points for the Sunday night game. It probably helps that Denver actually will be able to start a quarterback under center this week and not a wide receiver as it was forced to in Week 12 due to COVID-19 protocols.

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