NFL Week 11 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 12 lines

Just as buffalo roam across the prairie, Buffalo's betting numbers have roamed across the board the past two weeks.

First, it was the Josh Allen Effect. With the Bills' quarterback availability hazy leading up to the Vikings' game, the spread see-sawed within a wide range of 5.5 points. The total underwent similar movement.

Then, it was the Weatherman Effect. A blizzard forecast for western New York sent the total for the Bills' Sunday encounter with Cleveland tumbling from the high to the low 40s, only to bounce back to the eventual 49.5 after the game was moved to the dome in Detroit.

Less movement is likely this week. The Bills suit up on Thanksgiving Day, which means fewer available days for odds and totals to roam all over the prairie. Er, map. 

Top 'Dogs

The kennels were nearly empty Sunday. Of the dozen games, only two 'dogs won and they were spotted a mere three and 2.5 points.

Detroit downed the New York Giants 31-18, while Las Vegas pulled one out of a frayed hat 22-16 at Denver in overtime. Tennessee bumped off Green Bay 27-17 on Thursday, also as a three-point underdog.

That's all we got. 

Bad Beats

Oh, we've got some ba-a-a-ad ones.

The Jets and Patriots had played 59 3/4 minutes without a touchdown. They might have gone until your Thanksgiving Day meal without either offense crossing the goal line. So, when New York punted in a 3-3 tie with just seconds remaining, overtime seemed inevitable; not a single punt this season had been run back for a TD. So did a cover appeared assured for the Jets (+3.5), with neither side likely able to muster more than a field goal in OT.

Yet rookie returner Marcus Jones returned it 84 yards to paydirt at 0:05 on the clock, giving New England (-3.5) a 10-3 victory and the most improbable of covers.

Cleveland (+7.5) threatened with a backdoor cover, driving 75 yards in eight snaps for a TD with 19 seconds left against Buffalo that trimmed the deficit to nine points. Instead of attempting a two-point conversion, the Browns booted the PAT for a final score of 31-23 and the narrowest of ATS wins for the Bills. (Some bettors secured a push with +8.) 

A late, long Atlanta field goal hit the daily double, impacting the spread and the total against Chicago. Younghoe Koo nailed a 53-yarder with 1:47 remaining, which untangled a tie and gifted the Falcons a 27-24 win. Favored by three throughout the week, they wound up as 2.5-point favorites. What's more, Koo's kick converted an Under to an Over at 51 points scored, above the number at 48.5.

Denver (-2.5) seemed poised for a cover against Las Vegas after moving ahead by three with 3 1/2 minutes left. The Raiders, having scored a measly 13 points to that point, marched for a game-tying field goal. The Broncos were afford a second chance in overtime, needing only a field goal for an ATS win. Alas, a Las Vegas TD doomed Denver to yet another defeat.

It's arguable to classify any game involving Kansas City as a bad beat — not with the maestro of the two-minute offense, Patrick Mahomes, at quarterback. Mahomes shrugged at a Chargers touchdown with 1:46 to spare that put Los Angeles up 27-23, still 2.5 points south of the 52.5 total. He needed just 75 seconds to produce a TD and a Kansas City escape 30-27 to deliver an Over.  

How The Books Fared

The sportsbooks spent time returning lots of money on the Bills-Browns total. At Caesars, an overwhelming 96% played Buffalo against the spread, which wound up pushing at -8.

The other lopsided ATS betting game was a setback for the book as the Chargers, who reeled in 86% of the handle, covered against the Chiefs.

Five totals on Sunday flirted with or exceeded 90% of dollars directed toward one outcome at Caesars. The book went 3-2 on them, winning on the Commanders-Texans Over, Cowboys-Vikings Over and Rams-Saints Under. Bettors collected en masse on the Raiders-Broncos Under and the Chiefs-Chargers Over.

Week 12 Line Moves

You are reading this right. The defending champs are on the receiving end of 14 points.

The Rams-K.C. line leapt from 9.5 after the Chiefs' almost routine last-minute rally Sunday to beat the other L.A. team. Other factors are the Rams' fourth straight loss, this one in New Orleans, and QB Matthew Stafford's iffy status after getting dinged in the head a week after exiting concussion protocol.

Mirroring that scenario is another matchup. Chicago has stumbled four times in a row and QB Justin Fields is nursing a shoulder injury, leaving his status unclear. The Bears' line versus the favored Jets has risen two points to 5.5.

Miami-Houston also climbed two to 11.5. The Dolphins had no bearing on the shift, having spent last week off. It was all the Texans, who were drubbed by Washington.

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