NFL Week 10 picks: Dolphins cover, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas SuperContest expert

A nice start to Week 9 was ruined by the Chiefs and Saints not showing up in primetime, so we march on looking to string together several big weeks. This might be a good card to do it with, as only one line on the SuperContest slate was spot on with where my power ratings projected it, and that game has already passed. One other was a half-point off my projections, and even there, I'm playing the "wrong" side of that number on one card because I like the spot for the team that's slightly inflated.

On the other side of the ledger, I have four lines that I think are at least three points off in the Circa Million, and that doesn't even include a Vikings-Bills game that might just be untouchable without knowing what's going to happen with Josh Allen. I'd bet he doesn't play, but even without him, the Bills have a very good roster, a veteran backup quarterback, and home-field advantage against a team that typically plays indoors. I think a lot of people will be playing the Vikings as 3.5-point 'dogs expecting Allen ultimately is inactive and the line drops from there. But I won't be one of them.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading a mid-week line move in a matchup I think the market has all wrong: the Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. the Cleveland Browns.

My instinct here isn't that the market fees like the Browns are a great team, but that the Dolphins are probably an average one on the same level as Cleveland. But the Dolphins to me are a clear playoff team, even with a defense that some think is shaky. That's because Miami has the best passing game in the league, with Tyreek Hill as the NFL's best No. 1 receiver and Jaylen Waddle as the league's best No. 2 receiver. Tua Tagovailoa has won every game he's started and finished this year. If you extend that back to last year when he played in nowhere near as efficient an offense, he's 12-1 in his last 13 finished games as starter. I know the Dolphins only won by small margins against perceived weaker teams each of the last two weeks, but road inter-conference games are difficult to win no matter the opponent, and those are the types of road trips during which the old Dolphins drop at least one and maybe two games.

Then you have a Browns team coming off a bye that we last saw destroying the Bengals. Maybe that defense will again have success here against a Dolphins offensive line dealing with a key injury to Terron Armstead, but Miami is ninth in sack rate on offense all year, so I wouldn't put them in the same bucket as the Bengals when it comes to strength of that unit. I also worry about the state of the locker room coming out of the bye when they're just a few games from getting Deshaun Watson on the field. Do you think with two weeks to dwell on that QB upgrade that the team is 100% focused on beating the very good opponent on the schedule this week?

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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