NFL Week 10 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 11 lines

This is a betting column. Before we get to the weekly review, let's put aside odds and totals and take a half-minute to marvel at the terrific overtime thriller in Buffalo.

The Vikings and Bills set the bar high for best game of the year, and the final eight weeks likely will not produce a topper. The computerized gizmos that determine a team's chances to win by percentage at any given moment of a game must have blown a gasket with the constant back-and-forth in the closing minutes of regulation. Nor was the overtime half-bad, either.

After such a tasty treat, who wouldn't be down with a rematch in Super Bowl LVII?

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming. 

Top 'Dogs

Of the 13 games already staged in Week 10, 11 of them had lines of less than seven points, including a half-dozen of a field goal or less. Opportunities for earth-shaking upsets were limited.

Minnesota came through at +6.5 with its 33-30 gem. The spread ranged during the week from 3.5 to 8.5 due to the uncertain availability of Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The Vikings removed any possibility of a middle by savvy bettors with the straight-up win.

Another underdog also came through in extra time. Green Bay, allotted 3.5 points by Dallas in the Packers' first home gig in a month, survived 31-28 in OT. Unlike their NFC North rivals in Buffalo who had to overcome a 17-point deficit, the Packers merely needed to climb out of a 14-point hole in the fourth quarter.

The other mild upset of note was by Detroit, +3 at Chicago. Following their division brethren's pattern of rallying, the Lions drifted behind by 14 points, only to register three touchdowns in the final period for a 31-30 escape.

In three of four prior outings, Detroit scored in single digits — and one of those digits was a zero.

Now if only Washington (+11) can ambush unbeaten Philadelphia in the Monday nighter. 

Bad Beats

Any bettor who played Houston and the Over might have felt optimistic for a double score as the Texans, trailing the Giants 24-13, set up with a first down at New York's 17 late in the game. A TD and two-point conversion would deliver a cover for Houston at +4.5 and an Over with a total of 41.5. However, sent backward by a sack, the Texans elected to boot a field goal on second down and try their luck on an onside kick. It failed, resulting in a Giants agsinst-the-spread win 24-16 and an Under.

Similarly, the Under crowd on Cardinals-Rams surely exuded confidence with Arizona ahead 27-10 and and the L.A. offense stuck in quicksand with QB Matthew Stafford out.

Somehow the Rams motored 65 yards inside the final four minutes and scored on a TD pass with 0:07 on the clock. The total had floated between 37.5 and 43.5 because Stafford and counterpart Kyler Murray were iffy all week, with neither eventually suiting up. All Under numbers in the sizable window turned out losers.

Sunday night brought another entry to the bad beats bunch.

The 49ers, who yielded anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5 to the Chargers, were perched at L.A.'s 1-yard line with about a minute remaining and had two cracks for a TD while ahead 19-16. The next play, on third down, lost a yard. After the offense teased San Francisco backers by lining on fourth down, it instead called a timeout, sent out the field-goal unit and went up 22-16 to hand the Chargers a cover.  

How The Books Fared

The Vikings' win was a relief to the sportsbooks, who sold a heavy dose of tickets on Buffalo as the line bounced around.

The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas profited from Week 10, according to ESPN, making up for losses in the two previous weeks.

The same goes for Caesars Sportsbook. Its most lopsided play was a winner, with the public devoting about nine of every 10 dollars on the Rams. Pittsburgh, the second-strongest team bet on, did cover over New Orleans.

The larger leans were on totals, with four games drawing 90% or more on a particular side.

The public cashed on the Steelers-Saints Under and Browns-Dolphins Over, offsetting losses on the Colts-Raiders Under and Texans-Giants Over.

Week 11 Line Moves

The most substantial shift was in the direction of a losing team. But the Bills were brilliant at times and their opponent, Cleveland, was drilled by Miami, resulting in the spread gravitating from six to 8.5.

A game pairing Sunday winners has experienced a two-point variation. San Francisco, getting Super Bowl buzz despite a 5-4 record, stands at -7.5 against Arizona, up from -5.5.

Another two-point movement involved foes coming off byes. New England is giving 3.5 to the New York Jets, down from 5.5.

Those struggling Rams, their chances of defending the title hanging by a frayed jersey thread, are receiving three points from the Saints, who have dropped four of the last five outright. That's up from a point.

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