NFL Week 1 power ratings for against the spread picks: What each Week 1 line should be, and where there's value

When I wrote this column last year, I said the 2020 season would be like nothing that's come before as players and teams grappled with playing during a pandemic, and that "betting on the NFL in 2020 is going to be a test of preparedness." Well, our preparation paid off, as I finished the 2020 season on an 80-59 run with my NFL picks on SportsLine and ended the season as this site's No. 1 NFL expert.

Now we're in 2021, and a few things have changed. A widely-available vaccine has mitigated some of the player availability risk from last season, though we're certainly going to deal with more of it this year. But in terms of this column, the biggest change isn't just that we're bringing it to you directly on SportsLine, but that I plan on sharing my updated power ratings and projected spreads every single week.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Chargers are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. The Dolphins might be a little bit better, making them a +1. The Browns could be better still and get a +2 rating.

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Browns should be favored by two points against the Chargers on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years.

I encourage you to go through this process to build what you think each line should be for Week 1 and see where the market disagrees. Then, digest what we see on the field for that slate of 16 games and adjust accordingly to come up with your projected lines for Week 2. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off in Week 1.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 1? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 1 power ratings from the expert who's an outstanding 80-59 on NFL picks!