NFL Survivor Pool Week 9 strategy: Don't trust the Browns, plus top options for Week 9 and every remaining week

We're on a pretty good run of telling you who not to play as you try to navigate the minefield that is NFL survivor competitions. In Week 2, we said don't fade the Cardinals and they gave the Giants a massive scare before ultimately losing. We said avoid fading them against the following week and they beat the Cowboys, a double-digit favorite. In Week 4 we said to save the Eagles and they needed overtime to beat Washington, and the following week we said avoid Washington despite being favored by nearly a touchdown before they gave up 40 points to the Bears in a loss. In Week 7, we stressed not to use the Bills against the Patriots and they lost outright. Last week we said not to use the Chiefs and they lost outright.

If you've followed this advice, hopefully you're still alive in your survivor pools. I was a part of two large-format pools this year, and we're still alive in the DraftKings competition where we got through Week 3 by using the Chiefs. In the Circa Survivor, I felt I needed to save the Chiefs for the standalone Christmas slate, so I ended up bowing out in Week 3 by backing the Jaguars and watching them give up four 53-plus yard field goals to lose in overtime. The Jags of course have turned into an unstoppable force since that game. I'm not bitter though (I keep telling myself)!

When looking at your options for Week 9, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. This week, I'm fading the biggest favorite on the board, as I would avoid using the Browns against the Cardinals.

It's very likely you still have the Browns available, unless you were overly confident the Bengals would stink to start the season and used Cleveland in Week 1. This certainly feels like the best spot to use them all year, up against a Cardinals team that might be starting fifth-round pick Clayton Tune at quarterback this week. Of course, Tune could be "the next Brock Purdy," a label that gets thrown on any quarterback that wasn't highly drafted these days and was applied to Tune in May by NBC's Chris Simms. But we could also get Kyler Murray in this game, as he practiced in full for multiple days last week and might be able to talk his way into making his debut this week.

But no matter who starts for Arizona, I can't trust whoever starts for Cleveland at QB. If it's P.J. Walker, he's completed less than half his passes this year with one touchdown, five interceptions and two fumbles. If it's Deshaun Watson, he's only had one game where we can be optimistic about his future in Cleveland, and that was against a bad Titans pass defense. Even if he is able to play, do you trust he'll make it through the game after getting pulled after a 1-for-5 start in his last appearance? I don't, and I'm not going to take a team in survivor where I'm hoping the defense does all the work to get me the win.

Let's also keep an eye on what Arizona does at the QB position late in the week. Even if Tune is announced as the starter, the Cardinals have a decision to make with their QB2. If they activate Murray from PUP, all it takes is an underwhelming start by Tune to pivot and put Murray in there a week early. If they elevate Jeff Driskel from the practice squad and don't activate Murray, then we're likely going to get a full game from Tune (perhaps save for a few rush design plays with Driskel). I'm not backing the Browns in survivor either way, but that decision may come in key when deciding how to play the game in the betting market.

Why listen to me? Well, I was 535-450-30 (+3532) on ATS picks over the last six years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 376-290-24 (56.5%) over the last eight years in the Westgate SuperContest.  While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition.

Below, you'll find my top options for this week as well as a tiered set of options for every week over the rest of the season, including breakouts for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas slates. Let's dig in.

What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 9? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!