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NFL Survivor Pool: Week 18 selection from advanced computer model

Don't lock in your NFL Week 18 Survivor pick until you see the play from the SportsLine Projection Model

By@SportsLineUpdated: Jan 04, 2022 4:21PM UTC . 4 min read

Three playoff spots will be up for grabs when the NFL regular-season schedule concludes with a 16-game slate in Week 18. The San Francisco 49ers (9-7) can clinch the final NFC berth with a victory at the Los Angeles Rams (12-4) or a loss by the New Orleans Saints (8-8), who can claim it with a win at the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) and a San Francisco defeat. 

In the AFC, five teams are vying for two spots, and the winner of the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) and host Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) will grab one of them, although Las Vegas can qualify in a few other scenarios. The Indianapolis Colts (9-7) will take the other with a victory at the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14), while the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1) and host Baltimore Ravens (8-8) will need to win their showdown and receive help in order to make the postseason.

Before you make your Week 18 NFL survivor picks, you NEED to see which team the SportsLine Projection Model is backing.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

The model can be used to crush the survivor pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. The team winning the most model simulations each week has been incredibly successful this season, as the 49ers in Week 1 (75 percent), Buccaneers in Week 2 (79 percent), Cardinals and Ravens in Week 3 (79 percent) and Bills in Week 4 (87 percent) were victorious. 

The Patriots in Week 5 (78 percent), Colts in Week 6 (81 percent), Cards in Week 7 (84 percent), Rams in Week 8 (91 percent) and Steelers in Week 9 (73 percent) were winners for survivor contestants who used those teams, as were the Buccaneers and Browns in Week 11 (73 percent), the Bucs again in Week 13 (70 percent), the Chargers in Week 14 (70 percent), the Dolphins in Week 15 (74 percent) and the Saints in Week 17 (66 percent).

In Week 18, we can tell you the model is shying away from the Vikings, who have allowed 30 or more points in each of their last two games - both losses. They're facing a Bears team that has posted back-to-back victories, including one in Seattle, and will be looking to avenge a 17-9 home setback against Minnesota in Week 15. The Vikings are winning 63 percent of simulations, but the status of quarterback Kirk Cousins (COVID-19) is up in the air, so the model is fading them.

Instead, the model is backing a team that has scored at least 31 points in four straight games and is facing an opponent which has produced fewer than 14 points in four of its last five contests! Picking this team will put you in the optimal position to win your NFL survivor pool. You NEED to see which team the model is backing before locking in your NFL survivor picks!

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