NFL DFS roster construction: Expert details winning contrarian and correlation plays for Week 1

When constructing a DFS lineup, you are placing a variety of bets. Your choices go much deeper than just any given player that you select -- let's examine using your one tight end position to roster Mark Andrews as an example.

Rostering Andrews effectively places the following bets:

1. Andrews will be more productive on a point-per-dollar basis than the other popular options at his position.
2. Lamar Jackson will play well enough to facilitate that type of production from Andrews.
3. Baltimore's opponent will keep the game competitive enough for the Ravens to remain aggressive in their offensive playcalling.

A roster with Andrews on it correlates with various different players because your lineup needs to do more than score lots of points -- your lineup needs to score more points than the other lineups in the contest that you are playing in.

If by placing a bet on Andrews, you are effectively also placing a bet against Travis Kelce and Kyle Pitts -- and your goal is to finish in first place in your contest -- a winning lineup with Andrews on it correlates strongly with a strong output from teammates of Kelce and Pitts. Any touchdowns that JuJu Smith-Schuster or Clyde Edwards-Helaire score are ones that Travis Kelce does not score. A productive day from Drake London lowers the probability of Kyle Pitts having a productive day. If you're playing for first place, and you're already placing a bet on Andrews and against Kelce and Pitts, it could make sense to double down on that bet by also rostering London and Smith-Schuster, right? If you feel good about the projection for those guys, they definitely seem like intuitive fits next to Andrews if the salaries work out.

It should go without saying that a pass-catcher's productivity correlates strongly with that of his quarterback -- I already wrote about my favorite stacks for Week 1 -- so Jackson would be a logical pairing with Andrews on this roster. And a high-volume day from Jackson and Andrews necessitates a productive offensive output from Baltimore's opponent, so the most-likely touchdown scorers on the other side of the ball correlate with this Andrews roster as well. In Week 1, Elijah Moore appears poised to cook Baltimore's secondary -- he fits this build perfectly!

This example captures the essence of the correlation corner -- we're aiming for increased intentionality and mindfulness in our lineup construction decisions. We're aiming for first place, and I believe that we can drastically increase our chances of getting there by letting our lineups build themselves around intuitive correlation pieces connected to our conviction plays. If Andrews is a conviction play for you in Week 1, consider the paths to a tournament-winning lineup that features him and build out those lineups.

The correlation corner will be focused on my conviction plays and how I am building around them. You can use them if you want, but I would like to challenge you -- rather than just building the lineups that I describe, consider your own conviction plays and correlated constructions you can concoct. If this process is a change in philosophy for you, feel free to hit me up on Twitter -- I'd be happy to talk through your thought process together. I'm setting aside time for Twitter Q&A's on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings this season -- those are the times that I'll be most available to respond on Twitter.

So which players are conviction plays for Jacob Gibbs this week, and which corresponding players correlate strongly? And which overlooked plays provide leverage over the player projected for the highest roster rate this week? ... Join SportsLine here to join Gibbs in the correlation corner and learn more about lineup construction, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!