NC State vs. Virginia odds, prediction: 2026 ACC Tournament men's college basketball picks from proven model

The seventh-seeded NC State Wolfpack will now face the second-seeded Virginia Cavaliers for the third time this season after beating Pitt 98-88 on Wednesday. Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC) has swept the regular-season series 76-61 and 90-61 over NC State (20-12, 10-8 ACC). The Cavaliers ended the season winning 11 of their last 12 games while the Wolfpacks broke a four-game slide with the win over Pitt. The Wolfpacks appear to be in the tournament, but a win over the Cavaliers would solidify this and possibly a better seed.. The Cavaliers are having a great season with their only losses coming to UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, and Butler.

Tip-off from Spectrum Center in Charlotte is set for 12 p.m. ET. NC State leads the all-time series 87-72 but Virginia has won both games this season handily. Virginia is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest NC State vs. Virginia odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 148.5. 

Before making any Virginia vs. NC State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on an 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated NC State vs. Virginia 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of simulations!

So who wins NC State vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!