My Top 10 teams, plus Week 12 ATS leans

Rating teams each week and making adjustments to their power ratings isn't anything like you see in media polls. In my weekly column identifying the Top 10 teams, I'll explain why I made an adjustment as well as break down significant games for each team that week.

1. Alabama (100, LW 99): The Crimson Tide covered yet again in Week 11 against Mississippi State. Hopefully we kept some people off of the Bulldogs in the column last week, but even I didn't expect the Alabama side to close -30. I made an adjustment to their power rating accordingly. They face Tennessee Chattanooga this Saturday.

2. Ohio State (94.5, LW 94): Ohio State seems to have found its groove again after beating up on Maryland and Nebraska. Both opponents were without their starting quarterbacks, which played a role, but offensively the Buckeyes have been much improved. They are laying 21.5 at Michigan State in Week 12; my number is 22 so I don't see myself getting involved.

3. Louisville (94, LW 94): The Cardinals had a scare for three quarters in their home matchup against Wake Forest Saturday night. The 44-12 final score is misleading as 'Ville found itself down 12-3 late in the third quarter. They have a tricky game on deck on a short week Thursday night in Houston, but Cougars starting quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was injured against Tulane in Week 11 and is currently questionable. I expect the line to be Louisville -14 if he plays; if not, I imagine we see this get closer to -20.

4. Clemson (92, LW 92): The Tigers were one of three projected Top 4 College Football Playoff teams to lose Saturday. They are currently laying 22.5 at Wake Forest in Week 12, which is probably inflated a few points. My personal number is 20.5, but I'm not surprised to see oddsmakers a bit higher, expecting people to back Clemson off of their loss. If we see this get to 24 later in the week, I'll likely bet the Demon Deacons.

5. Michigan (92, LW 92): The Wolverines struggled mightily on offense in their 14-13 loss to Iowa. News broke early this week that starting quarterback Wilton Speight broke his collarbone during the game and likely will miss time. This would explain some of the issues against Iowa. The Wolverines' prospects of beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten are quickly diminishing. My number for their upcoming home matchup against Indiana with Speight at quarterback is -29, but with him likely out, I would downgrade the number about three points. With -23 hanging around, I think there is a slight edge on Michigan.

6. Washington (91, LW 91.5): Not much of a surprise here looking back at the Huskies' loss. We talked about their lack of strength of schedule and it showed. They looked like the weaker team -- whether that's true or not -- in every facet against USC. I expect Washington to bounce back at home against Arizona State, but the following game at Washington State and then potentially a Pac-12 title game appearance will test UW again. I think the current line at -27 is slightly inflated, but will likely be staying away unless I can get over four touchdowns on the Sun Devils.

7. LSU (90, LW 89): LSU took care of business as expected against the nation's worst run defense. The Tigers now host the Gators in a makeup game rescheduled due to a hurricane. LSU obviously has a massive advantage now playing this one at home. The Gators, however, are playing for the right to represent the East division in the SEC championship game. I lean the Gators' way against LSU, but it's not enough to play right now at 13.5.

8. Oklahoma (89.5, LW 88.5): The Sooners took care of Baylor on Saturday and now have themselves a legitimate test at West Virginia in a game that could wind up being for the Big 12 title. My number is Oklahoma -4.5, so I was somewhat surprised to see this move down from -3 to -2.5, but it could very well be a setup to buy the Sooners later in the week. I'm also eyeing the total and could wind up making an Under play.

9. USC (89, LW 88): I don’t expect a letdown here for the Trojans. It was evident from the get-go that they went into that Washington game expecting to win. A rivalry game against UCLA won't be anything they look over. Without Josh Rosen under center, the Bruins will struggle offensively. Expect the number to climb throughout the week.

10. Colorado (87, LW NR): It seems crazy putting the Buffs in my Top 10 but they have absolutely earned it. When you look at their two losses, you could argue they have the best two-loss resume of any team in the country. A road defeat at USC by four points is nothing to be ashamed of, and many people forget Colorado was leading Michigan in Ann Arbor in the third quarter before quarterback Sefo Liufau was injured. My guess is that Washington State plus the points will be a very popular dog in Week 12, but this is my warning for those people: There is a reason it has already come up from -3.5 to -4.5 (my number is even -6; don’t sleep on the Buffs.