My Top 10 Teams, Plus Rivalry Week ATS Leans

As we head into a massive Rivalry Week, here are my Top 10 teams, plus my opinions on their upcoming games.

1. Alabama (100, LW 99): The Iron Bowl lost some of its pizzazz two weeks ago when Auburn lost to Georgia. Had the Tigers hung on, this rivalry game against Alabama would be for the SEC West and a trip to the SEC title game to face the Gators. My pointspread number is 17.5, so I don't see myself getting involved unless the total offers some value later this week.

2. Ohio State (94, LW 94.5): We have been waiting for this "play-in" game against Michigan all season. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, starting quarterback Wilton Speight was injured in their loss to Iowa two weeks ago and is unlikely to play. Even if he does, he won't be nearly as effective as usual. The 6.5-point spread is fair assuming Speight can't go. This is another game where I'll be eyeing the total for a potential play.

3. Louisville (93, LW 94) Hopefully some of you were following Twitter before the Louisville-Houston game and took some Cougars +700 after my recommendation. Now that the Cardinals' College Football Playoff hopes are officially destroyed, I'm not sure what they are playing for. Kentucky will treat the Governor's Cup like more of a rivalry game than Louisville will. The Wildcats haven't beaten 'Ville since 2010, and it was pretty evident last week when they were down 13-0 to Austin Peay that they were probably looking ahead to Week 13. At +24 or better, a play on Kentucky offers value.

4. Clemson (92.5, LW 92) Clemson bounced back from its home loss to Pittsburgh and took care of Wake Forest. The Tigers control their own destiny, and I expect them to win out and earn a spot in the playoff. While this team isn't as prolific last year's Tigers, I don't think Virginia Tech (or North Carolina) can give them a run in the ACC title game. Clemson is favored by 23.5 points this week against South Carolina, and as improved as the Gamecocks have been with new quarterback Jake Bentley, I'd be shocked if this was close. My number is 24.

5. Michigan (92, LW 92) Despite the injury to QB Wilton Speight, the Wolverines have a few things going for them. In Ohio State's competitive games, it has been glaringly obvious that JT Barrett struggles to move the ball through the air. Against Michigan State this past Saturday, he was 10 of 22 for 86 yards and forced to rush 24 times. He has had similar types of numbers earlier this season, and I've pointed out that if the Buckeyes turn one-dimensional they are extremely beatable. Now they face the best defense they've seen. I'm hoping we see a +7 or better pop up, but I don't expect it to. I do however think there will be some value betting the total when it opens.

6. USC (91.5, LW 89) Big jump up for the Trojans in my power ratings. They took care of UCLA as we expected despite the big road win at Washington the week prior, and it's hard to say anybody outside of Alabama is playing better football now. They play an Irish team that has had a disaster of a season, most recently blowing a 17-point home lead to Virginia Tech for their seventh loss. With Notre Dame's season in its current state, I'm surprised this number is only 17. It's Trojans or nothing for me, and I'll definitely be buying if this drops to 16.5.

7. Washington (91, LW 91) The Huskies put a beatdown on Arizona State, winning 44-18. It was expected after their loss to USC, and now their final test is the rivalry game against Washington State. My number is 4.5. I would expect we see this settling anywhere in that 4.5-to-6 range. Don't be fooled by Wazzu's loss to the Buffs; Colorado is really good. I definitely think Leach and company have enough to pull this upset.

8. LSU (89.5, LW 90) LSU lost a very weird game to the Gators. The Tigers whiffed on a first-and-goal opportunity to win late, losing a game that was supposed to be played in Gainesville but was rescheduled and moved due to the hurricane. They face Texas A&M on Thanksgiving and are currently 5-point favorites. Running back Leonard Fournette will probably miss the game, so my number winds up being right in line. I'll be staying away.

9. Oklahoma (89.5, LW 89.5) The Sooners mopped up on West Virginia to solidify what looked like another Big 12 championship, but Oklahoma State upset TCU and now has a shot to force a tie atop the standings when they play in two weeks in Norman. Both teams are off this week. I'm expecting this line, when it opens Sunday, to be around Oklahoma -14.5.

10. Colorado (88, LW 87) The Buffs! These guys are really good at football. I still think if they win out and their only losses are on the road at Michigan and USC in close games, they'll have a shot to be in the College Football Playoff. It starts this week when they host a Utah team that just lost to Oregon. The current 10.5-point spread is a tad short (my number is 12), but I can see why it was shaded down off of their big win over Washington State and the added pressure of playing for the Pac-12 championship the following week. I think they get it done straight up, but I won't be betting the side in this one.