The Missouri State Bears take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in a key Conference USA matchup on Wednesday night. Missouri State is coming off a 27-22 loss to conference-leading Western Kentucky on Sept. 27, while Middle Tennessee dropped a 24-16 decision to Kennesaw State that same day. The Bears (2-3, 0-1 C-USA), who are tied with MTSU for seventh in the conference, are 1-1 on the road this season. The Blue Raiders (1-4, 0-1 C-USA), who have lost two in a row, are 0-2 on their home field.

Kickoff from Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tenn., is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Middle Tennessee won the only meeting between the teams, posting a 42-19 victory in 1986. The Bears are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 49.5 via SportsLine consensus. The Under has hit in four straight Missouri State games. Missouri State is at -128 on the money line (risk $128 to win $100), while MTSU is at +107 (risk $100 to win $107).

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The model has simulated Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations!

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