Michigan State vs. UConn line, picks: Advanced computer college basketball model releases selections for Thanksgiving matchup

The No. 22 UConn Huskies face the Michigan State Spartans in the Battle 4 Atlantis semifinals at noon ET on Thursday. UConn is favored by one point at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 141.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our college basketball odds page). 

Before making any Michigan State vs. UConn picks, you NEED to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows Michigan State is dominant on the defensive end. Tom Izzo's team ranks in the top three nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, with opponents scoring 61 points or fewer in four straight games. Michigan State is a top-10 team in 2-point defense, allowing 38.1 percent shooting inside the arc, and opponents are making only 31.2 percent of 3-point attempts. The Spartans are also rejecting shots at a sky-high clip of 20.3 percent, ranking within the top 10 of the country in rim protection.

The model also knows UConn is playing quite well. The Huskies land in the top 30 in the country in offensive and defensive efficiency, with a few elite metrics to lean on in the early going. UConn is a top-eight team nationally in both offensive rebound rate (42.6 percent) and 3-point accuracy (43.6 percent), with above-average marks in free-throw creation and turnover avoidance. On defense, the Huskies are in the top 20 in turnover creation rate and shooting efficiency allowed, with a 19.6 percent block rate that ranks in the top 10. Michigan State has struggled with ball security, and UConn can take advantage with athleticism and physicality.

Now, it has set its sights on Michigan State vs. UConn. We can tell you the model is leaning over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in 70 percent of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any college basketball picks.

Who wins Michigan State vs. UConn? And which side of the spread hits in 70 percent of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Michigan State vs. UConn spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model on a roll on college basketball picks!