Mets vs. Padres odds, lines: Advanced computer model reveals picks for Friday's NL Wild Card Series opener

SportsLine's Projection Model has generated picks for the first Wild Card game between New York and San Diego
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The New York Mets make their first postseason appearance in six years when they host the San Diego Padres on Friday in the opener of their best-of-three National League Wild Card Series. New York (101-61), which led the NL East for most of the season before succumbing to Atlanta down the stretch, reached the playoffs for the first time since losing to San Francisco in the 2016 NL Wild Card Game. San Diego (89-73) qualified for the postseason for the second time in three years after finishing second in the NL West. 

First pitch at Citi Field Stadium  is set for 8:07 p.m. ET. New York is listed as a -155 favorite (risk $155 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 6. (see the latest lines for every game on our MLB odds page).

Before making any Padres vs. Mets picks, you NEED to see the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it entered the final week of the regular season on an 18-8 run on top-rated money-line picks, returning almost $700 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows New York posted one of the best home records in the major leagues this season at 54-27 after winning eight of its final nine games at Citi Field but lost two of three when San Diego visited in July. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA), who is 7-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his postseason career, looks to bounce back from a loss at Atlanta on Oct. 1 in which he tied season highs with four runs and nine hits allowed. The Mets boast an offense that features the NL batting champion in Jeff McNeil (.326) and Pete Alonso, who led the senior circuit with a career-high 131 RBI and finished second with 40 home runs.

The model also knows San Diego won four of the six overall meetings with New York during the regular season, outscoring the Mets 36-23. Five-time All-Star Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10) has yet to lose to New York in his career as he is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts, including two wins this year in which he allowed one run and six hits while registering 15 strikeouts and issuing one walk over 14 innings. Manny Machado leads the Padres' offense as he was tied for fourth in the NL with a .298 batting average and belted 32 homers while reaching triple digits in RBI for the third time in his career with 102.

Now, it has set its sights on Mets vs. Padres. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any MLB picks of your own.

So who wins Mets vs. Padres? And which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Padres vs. Mets run line you should be all over on Friday, all from the model on a roll on MLB picks!


SportsLine Staff

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