The Dallas Mavericks look to overcome a depleted roster when they take on the Utah Jazz in a Western Conference matchup on Christmas night. The Mavericks (15-16) are expected to be down several players, including Luka Doncic, due to COVID-19 protocols when they face the Jazz (22-9), who have won 10 of 12, including two in a row. 

Utah is favored by 12.5 points in the latest Mavericks vs. Jazz odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 214. Before making any Mavericks vs. Jazz picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 46-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $1,900. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns.

Utah enters the game a much healthier team than the Mavericks, and should have its top two scoring options in shooting guard Donovan Mitchell and strong forward Bojan Bogdanovic. Mitchell leads the team in scoring, averaging 25.1 points, 5.1 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. He has scored 20 or more points in each of his last 12 games and 24 of 30 games in 2021-22. He is coming off a 28-point, seven assist performance against Minnesota on Thursday.  

If he can play through a toe injury, Dallas' Kristaps Porzingis will be counted on heavily against the Jazz. In 22 games this season, he is second on the team in scoring at 19.4 points per game. He is also averaging 7.9 rebounds, two assists and 1.6 blocks. Porzingis has reached double figures in each of his last eight games he has played, and has scored 20 or more points in four games during that stretch. He has also registered four double-doubles, including a 23-point and 12-rebound effort in a 107-104 overtime loss to the Lakers on Dec. 15.    

Now, it has simulated Mavericks vs. Jazz 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60 percent of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NBA picks.