Mariners vs. Astros odds, picks: Advanced computer MLB model releases selections for ALDS Game 1 matchup

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 of the ALDS at 3:37 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Houston is listed as a -235 favorite (risk $235 to win $100) at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 6.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our MLB odds page). Before making any Mariners vs. Astros picks, you NEED to check out the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the divisional round on a 20-11 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $600. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows the Mariners are very patient at the plate. Seattle was No. 2 in the American League in walks this season, and the Mariners also have power with a top-five mark in home runs. Four players on the Mariners roster belted at least 20 home runs in 2022, headlined by Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez. He produced 28 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a .509 slugging percentage in his debut season. 

The model also knows the Astros have an elite pitching projection in Game 1. Justin Verlander is the projected starting pitcher for Houston, and he is the Cy Young favorite in the American League. Verlander led the league with a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP this season, with opponents only producing 6.0 hits per nine innings against him. Verlander had 185 strikeouts in 175 regular season innings, and he had a 1.64 ERA at home, with a 1.51 ERA since the All-Star break.

Now, it has set its sights on Mariners vs. Astros. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one team has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any MLB picks.

Who wins Mariners vs. Astros? And which team has ALL the value on the money line? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Mariners vs. Astros matchup you should be all over Tuesday, all from the model on a roll on MLB picks!