Led by Cowboys, 7 of top 9 against the spread teams in 2021 NFL regular season made playoffs
Being good against the spread largely paid off in playoff spots this season in the NFL.
Being an excellent against the spread team in the NFL doesn't always equate to reaching the postseason. In 2020, for example, the Miami Dolphins were the most profitable ATS team at 11-5, but they didn't play extra football. However, seven of the top nine ATS clubs this season are in.
The NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys had the best ATS mark at 13-4 – quite a change from last season when the Cowboys were the worst at 5-11. That vastly improved defense led by first-year coordinator Dan Quinn was one of the biggest changes and in fact may lead to Quinn getting a head coaching job again. The Broncos are going to interview him at a minimum and he might be a favorite there. Dallas is a 3-point home favorite Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers, who were 9-8 ATS.
The Green Bay Packers (12-5), Buffalo Bills (9-6-2), New England Patriots (10-7), Tennessee Titans (10-7), Arizona Cardinals (10-7) and Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) also are among the best ATS teams in the playoffs. The two teams among the top nine that aren't are the Detroit Lions (11-6 ATS) and Indianapolis Colts (10-7), who choked Sunday in Jacksonville. Â
Which playoff team has the worst ATS mark? The Rams, Raiders, Chiefs and Steelers are all 8-9. The worst marks overall belonged to the Jaguars and Panthers, both 5-12. Overall this season, home teams were 140-131-1 straight up and 129-140-3 ATS. Home favorites were just 72-85-3, a cover percentage of 45.9.
On the Over/Under, the Minnesota Vikings were the top Over team on totals with a mark of 11-6, while the best Under teams were Jacksonville and Denver at 12-5 to the Under. All three of those franchises are looking for head coaches after Minnesota fired Mike Zimmer today. Unders won the season with a record of 146-125. There were 21 overtime games and the Over hit in 16 of them.Â
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