Kentucky vs. Mississippi State SEC basketball odds, bracketology: Wildcats in NCAA Tournament trouble with another loss

The biggest "bubble" game around college basketball Wednesday is from the SEC as shockingly average Kentucky visits Mississippi State. The loser likely falls on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble -- if the team isn't already there. The Bulldogs are 3-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook in the only scheduled meeting of the season.

Despite coach John Calipari returning 2021-22 Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe this season along with adding a typically loaded recruiting class, the Wildcats are just 16-9 overall and 7-5 in the SEC. In the all-important NCAA NET rankings, Kentucky is a decent 44th but is 1-7 in Quad 1 games and 3-4 overall on the road. Mississippi State offers an opportunity for a Quad 1 win.

ESPN bracketology currently lists Kentucky, which was No. 4 in the preseason AP Top 25, among its First Four Out, and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has the Cats as the same. Anyone for a Kentucky-North Carolina First Four matchup?

UK enters off back-to-back losses to unranked Arkansas and Georgia. The team faced the Bulldogs without injured guards CJ Fredrick and Sahvir Wheeler. Both are in question Wednesday (neither attended an early shootaround). Wheeler averages 7.7 points and 5.6 assists per game -- he is fifth in SEC history with 656 career assists -- and Fredrick 7.3 points. Kentucky has played 13 games at full strength this season.

"I think our guys' mindset is, they have a sense of urgency," assistant coach Chin Coleman said ahead of the MSU game. "I think they know that we've got to get ourselves together again right now, as we move down the stretch of the season."

Kentucky is 17-1 under Calipari against Mississippi State (17-8, 5-7 SEC), which is No. 40 in the NET Rankings. The Bulldogs are listed among the Last Four In for the Big Dance at ESPN and CBS Sports. They have followed a five-game losing streak with five straight wins.

Coach Chris Jans' club is the only program nationally to rank inside the top 11 in scoring defense (58.7 PPG, fifth nationally), opponent field goal percentage (38.8%, seventh nationally) and steals (9.46 steals per game, second nationally). The 58.7 points per game allowed is the program's second-lowest average through 25 games since 1955-56.

MSU's lone victory over Kentucky in the Calipari era was a 74-73 win at the 2021 SEC Tournament in Nashville.

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