Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The seventh-seeded Kentucky Wildcats battle the second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones in the second round of the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Sunday. Kentucky advanced with an 89-84 overtime win over Santa Clara in Friday's first round, while Iowa State cruised past Tennessee State 108-74 that same day. The Wildcats (22-13), who tied for seventh in the Southeastern Conference at 10-8, have won three of their last four games. The Cyclones (28-7), who tied for third in the Big 12 Conference at 12-6, have won four of their last five. Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson (ankle) is not likely to play.

Tip-off from Enterprise Center in St. Louis is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Kentucky leads the all-time series 3-0, but the teams have not played since 2012. Iowa State is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5. Before making any Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Kentucky vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of the simulations!

So who wins Kentucky vs. Iowa State, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!