Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 7 picks: Giants to cover vs. Jaguars, plus totals, player props, and more best bets

The trade deadline is nearing. And it may actually impact some gambling markets.

I suspect there are a few more big deals to come on the heels of the Christian McCaffrey trade. Those deals could have some short- and long-term ramifications for teams, team win totals and team point totals in any particular weekend. That impact might already be felt this weekend.

We've been let down before by NFL general managers, of course. Many a deadline has been a dud. But I am keeping my hopes up that a few playoff-bound teams will be adding more parts, and I know the Panthers for one aren't close to being done moving pieces and reshaping their roster and draft haul for the future.

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Panthers Under 13.5 Points vs. Buccaneers

I liked this a lot before they dealt McCaffrey. I really love it now. They just moved on from the one guy making that horrible offense occasionally not putrid. He was it. And he's gone. And sell "next man up" someplace else. PJ Walker is not an NFL quarterback. This team had seven offensive touchdowns all season with McCaffrey, and five straight games with no more than one offensive TD. Tampa will be more than prepared and that's a legit defense that's licking its wounds. Panthers players are hoping they are the next to be dealt off this sinking ship. It's not great for morale! I have a little bit of fear about a defensive touchdown, but I'm not letting it scare me off this. The Panthers don't have a first-quarter TD and playing from behind will lead to turnovers and miscues.

Commanders +4.5 vs. Packers

The Packers are in trouble on both sides of the ball. The Commanders have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem up for that fight. Washington struggles against the deep ball but Rodgers doesn't throw those anymore. Green Bay averages fewer than 18 points per game and with Washington's sack rate, red zone defense and third down effort much improved the past month, I anticipate for Green Bay. I don't mind Taylor Heinecke running around and moving the pocket. He played well against the Packers last year and is strong against the spread. Green Bay is allowing the most passing yards per attempt and sixth-most rushing yards per attempt. The Commanders are also well rested after a Thursday game, while Green Bay played in England, had a quick turnaround and now is on the road again. This is a live dog for me if you are into the moneyline.

Giants +3 at Jaguars

This line seems a little fishy and the lack of movement may be a little fishy, too. It might be a little hot in Jacksonville Sunday afternoon. But not hot enough to move me off the better side. The Giants are a better team with a legit top-10 defense and just enough offense. They are very well-coached, and unlike the Jaguars, they don't beat themselves. Trevor Lawrence has not been good over the last three weeks (a measly 78.4 rating) and he hasn't been blitzed much. That's about to change. Wink Martindale came after Lamar Jackson on 61% of his dropbacks last week and blitzes more than anyone else, and it's going to cause problems for that young QB. Daniel Jones has been better on the road than at home in his career, and unlike Lawrence, he is coming up big late and leading comeback drives. Lawrence is 7-16 all-time ATS. The Giants are 5-1 in one-score games. The Jags are just 0-4 in those scenarios. Give me these points, please.

Chiefs at 49ers Under 48.5

Not sure we see much of McCaffrey here, but the 49ers will be up for this after finally getting back home from the East Coast. Nick Bosa is trending towards playing and Trent Williams might as well. I see that helping the 49ers ground the clock to try to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and Bosa will sniff out a few drives on his own. The Under is 5-1 in 49ers games this season and the Chiefs are struggling to finish drives. Mahomes is the worst fourth-quarter QB in the NFL right now (54.9 rating), so I'm not sure there is a late flurry of points. The Chiefs defense is troubled by downfield passing but Jimmy Garoppolo stopped doing that a long time ago. I really liked the Under in the Chiefs game last week and I'm back on it here.

Seahawks at Chargers Over 50

Neither of these teams can play a lick of defense, especially when they come up against an offense that isn't inept. Geno Smith keeps doing his thing, winning on passes over 15 yards or more; the Chargers are willing and able to give that stuff up. The Seahawks give up 37 points per game on the road and the Chargers give up the eighth-most points per drive in the NFL. Hello! At some point someone in L.A. forces coordinator Joe Lombardi to try to actually big-boy passes with that stud QB of his, right? Right?

Cowboys Over 28.5 Points at Lions

Dak Prescott is back. And he returns against this historically bad defense. The Lions give up 34 points per game. They bleed points when leading and bleed them when trailing. And this Cowboys defense could lead to the Lions giving up more points, too. Prescott has averaged more than 30 points per game since Mike McCarthy came to town. The Lions are deadlast in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, third-down defense and percentage of drives that end in a TD. Their games average over 70 points. Dallas can't stop chasing points. They won't.

Player Props of the Week

Daniel Bellinger Anytime TD (+280)

The rookie tight end is becoming one of Daniel Jones's favorite targets. Brian Daboll loves to move the pocket on a bootleg-TE based offensive approach. Bellinger is athletic and is growing in confidence and the Jaguars – who haven't really faced truly elite TEs with any regularity – have given up 14 catches on 17 targets to TEs with a QB rating of 126.7 (29th in the NFL). There is a lot of value here for someone who has become a growing cog in this offense.

Nick Chubb Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-104)

Chubb averages 56 rushing yards per game against the Ravens. 30% of his career scrimmage yards in eight games against the Ravens came on two plays; an 88-yard run and a 70-yard reception. The Ravens run defense is rounding into form and they did the job against Saquon Barkley last week. They won't want to let Chubb beat them and Kevin Stefanski has been fairly quick to abandon the run. I could see Kareem Hunt showing up big in the passing game at the expense of Chubb's workload.

Tom Brady Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-117)

The Buccaneers cannot run the ball. It's broken. Their line can't really do it. It would be silly to keep doing it. I don't think they will force it to the degree they have the past few weeks. Brady is angry and out to prove a point. He's facing a pathetic opponent that has watched its coach be fired and best player dealt away in the span of mere days.  Brady is going to throw and keep throwing and his group of pass catchers may be the healthiest they have been all year.

Geno Smith Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-109)

You guys already know what I think of this game. Lot of yards. Lot of points. Smith is going to chuck the ball around. We know that much. He has no shortage of options. I expect this game to be played at a fairly hectic pace and for both teams to still be in heavy throw mode through the fourth quarter. Put some respect on this man's name.

Josh Jacobs Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

He is coming off a bye and has become a workhorse for Josh McDaniels. I don't see that changing. The Texans are a suspect operation and Lovie Smith loves to sit back and play all that Cover-2. I'm worried about all the Raiders weapons in the pass game. Jacobs has 59 touches for 369 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs over last two weeks. I see more in his future.

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