I feel it's only just to dedicate this Best Bets column to Colin Hay, lead singer of Men At Work, and the man who authored the 80's classic "Down Under." I couldn't help but think of him and his Aussie mates as I sized up the Week 3 card.

The NFL, for me, this week, is The Land Down Under. In so many of these games, I found myself leaning into the Under, being most captivated by the Under. There are some teams whose offense have been fairly tragic through two weeks, some units ravaged by shoddy offensive line play or injuries or suspensions (ahem, Tampa). There has been a trend in Unders in prime time games, and plenty of not-ready-for-prime-time games going Under as well.

• More Week 3 picks: Model | Hartstein | Pick 'em | Survivor | Props | DFS

How low will Vegas go? Not low enough for me not to still take the Under in several games this week. (Feel free to throw on "Business As Usual," or "Cargo" if you like while reading this column, and keep in mind that "Overkill" and "Catch A Star" don't get nearly enough accolades).

Eagles -6.5 at Commanders

The Commanders defense is a joke (again). The Eagles offense is a problem. Here are some staggering numbers -- Washington is allowing a league-worst 7.48 yards per carry and a staggering 4.28 yards before contact (the next closest team, Miami, allows 2.85). Now think about the Eagles robust option rushing attack led by Jalen Hurts. Yeah, it could be ugly. In the contest with the then-WFT a year ago in which Miles Sanders played, the Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards in an easy win. Oh yeah, and Washington has also allowed the most plays of 20 and 25 yards in the league and is yielding over 12 yards per pass to wide receivers (Hello A.J. Brown!). Yes, the Eagles rush defense is struggling, but I don't see Washington exploiting this much. Carson Wentz will make a few mistakes around the red zone. And after nearly blowing a huge lead to the Lions in Week 1, I don't see the Eagles taking their foot off the gas here (hopefully preventing any back-door cover nonsense).

49ers -1.5 at Broncos

Nathaniel Hackett is not an NFL head coach right now. The sidelines are in shambles, decisions are taking too long, procedural penalties are piling up and the Denver fanbase is already letting him have it. Trying to fix all of that -- oh yeah, and the league's worst red zone offense -- before a huge Sunday night game (after that Monday night debacle) sounds problematic to me. The 49ers are a much better team with Jimmy Garappolo and the helm, which I still don't believe is being valued enough here. That Chicago loss was an aberration and this 49ers defense is legit and is plenty familiar with Russell Wilson, whether he is cooking or getting filleted himself. Kyle Shanahan runs a professional operation and the Broncos, frankly, scare me right now -- and not in a good way.

Ravens at Patriots Under 44

The one thing we know Bill Belichick will do is try to take away an opponent's main weapon on offense. Believe it or not, with the Ravens right now, that is their downfield passing game -- early-down deep passes and play-action acumen. As crazy as it sounds, the Ravens cannot run the ball unless Lamar Jackson does it. Not even in their jumbo packages. I could see The Hoodie going with a lot of the Cover-2 looks that have given Jackson trouble and dare the Ravens to dink and dunk – on the ground or through the air. Meantime, New England is quite content to plod on the ground, eat clock and protect Mac Jones. And after authoring one of the greatest defensive choke-jobs in NFL history last week, Ravens rookie defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald – already risk-averse and leaning heavily on zone looks -- is going to do everything possible not to give up the deep ball (not that the slow and twitch-less Pats can work through the deep ball anyway). This looks like another throwback game to me. The Patriots will do whatever it takes to win ugly in their home opener.

Packers at Buccaneers Under 42

For all of the talk about these two GOAT quarterbacks, have you seen these two teams play? A lot goes through the running backs, Aaron Rodgers is still figuring out his kid receivers, and the Packers have been horrible against the run. Tom Brady has a third-string left tackle in front of him and a reconfigured interior offensive line. Chris Godwin has been hurt, Mike Evans is suspended and Rob Gronkowski hasn't come out of retirement again (yet). Both of these teams are playing the long game – Super Bowl or bust – and I see this being a game more like the Saints-Bucs contest from last week than some sort of shootout.

Team Total of the Week: Lions Over 22

The Lions finish drives with touchdowns because they run the ball down your throat. All of a sudden they are developing a true No. 1 receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, too. The Vikings can muster a pass rush at times, but have issues on defense overall.  

Survivor Pick of the Week: Eagles

I tried to get cute last week with the Browns, who oh by the way had something like a 99.9999999999% chance of winning that game in the fourth quarter and somehow blew it anyway. My second-best choice was the Raiders, who, well, you get the drill. Luck has not been in great supply early on. Take the Eagles, who we know are actually be good at football.

Teaser of the Week: Lions +12, Chiefs +1.5

The Lions are running the football with astounding success and I expect D'Andre Swift to play -- his yards before contact numbers are totally ridiculous, by the way. The Vikings run defense has been brutal. On the whole, the Lions lead the NFL with 3.75 yards before contact; the Vikings are 29th and allowing 2.31. The Lions OL is mauling people and Jared Goff is being thrust into advantageous situations. And while this Chiefs-Colts game gives me funny vibes, and I don't want to touch it in a traditional sense, I also don't see Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes losing it. The Colts have major issues all along their OL and on all three levels of the defense.

Same Game Parlay: "Hurts So Good"

Jalen Hurts TD, Hurts Over 19.5 Completions, A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Yards (+625)

We are going for maximum payoff here in what looks like a very advantageous matchup for many Eagles skill players, Jalen Hurts in particular. They can gut Jack Del Rio's defense any number of ways, and I see Hurts rumbling for several big gains on the ground. He has as many rushing TDs as anyone since Week 11 last year and gets plenty of rushes in the red zone. As we noted above, Washington is atrocious against the run and haven't seen anything like this option attack yet. The short-range, high-percentage passing game looks great for the Eagles so far, allowing Hurts to complete at least 20 passes. Brown is a difference-maker, has seen a ton of targets and has a nose for the end zone. He is a proven red zone factor is due for a TD himself. The Commanders have allowed a 100-yard receiver in both games thus far, so I'll go with the yardage total here, but if you go with a Brown TD instead of the yards prop it's +800.

Player Props of the Week

Lamar Jackson Over 217.5 yards

Yeah I like the Under here, but have you seen this guy? He leads the NFL with 11.42 air yards per attempt and is gutting people passing under center for the first time in his career with any regularity. Rashod Bateman looks legit, Mark Andrews is legit, and don't be shocked if rookie Isaiah Likely gets in the end zone this week. This total seems ridiculously low for me against a solid-but-not-spectacular defense and for a passing attack that has plays of 75, 55, 34, 26, 25 and 25 yards already this season.

Stefon Diggs Over 80.5 yards

Bills/Dolphins Over 52.5 came very close to making an appearance in this column. Regardless, both of these defenses are already dinged up and I see both QBs making some big plays -- especially Josh Allen. Byron Jones is out and Xavien Howard has been missing practice, and Miami's pass rush being tepid thus far. I don't think they can hold Diggs in check.

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