James Harden trade odds fallout: Nets largely status quo adding Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond; 76ers' NBA title futures hugely improve with Harden
Blockbuster trade Thursday as the Nets have traded James Harden to Philly for Ben Simmons and others.
It's incredibly rare to see two contending teams in the same conference swap All-Stars in the middle of a season but that has happened as the long-rumored trade of Brooklyn's James Harden to Philadelphia is finalized with the Nets getting Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and draft picks. The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) improves the Nets' forecast for this season a bit and slightly downgrades Philly's, but Caesars Sportsbook oddsmakers disagree.
Entering Trade Deadline Day, Brooklyn – despite being on a nine-game losing streak in part because Harden was unhappy/supposedly injured – was the +400 NBA title favorite at Caesars and the +220 Eastern Conference favorite. The Nets are now +425 to win it all and +240 in the East – still favored on both but barely. Philadelphia was +1200 and +500, respectively, but is +700 and +300.
Via SportsLine Projection Model creator Stephen Oh: "Because Harden's stats have been subpar for most of this season and current season stats are weighted more than past season stats, the Nets get better with Simmons and Philly gets a little worse. Simmons hasn't played and his weakness (i.e., he's scared to shoot) is not apparent from a statistical standpoint."
Brooklyn has been abysmal on defense this season and Simmons is a two-time All-NBA Defensive First-Team member, so he will hugely help there. Not clear when he might debut having sat out all season. Curry is one of the NBA's better three-point shooters at 40 percent and is averaging 15.0 ppg. Drummond is a stellar rebounder who can help defend (or use his six fouls) Philadelphia's Joel Embiid if the Nets and Sixers meet in the playoffs – which I think everyone wants to see.
When Harden is engaged, he's obviously a Top 10 player in the league. The Beard is averaging 22.5 points and 10.2 assists this season. It marks the second time in NBA history a player was averaging 20 points and 10 assists per game at the time of changing teams within a season. The other instance was Harden last year when Harden forced his way out of Houston and was sent to Brooklyn in a multi-team deal.Â
Brooklyn visits Philadelphia on March 10 in the final regular-season meeting between the two. Kevin Durant should be back from injury by then.Â
The Sixers are sending the Nets an unprotected 2022 first-round pick and a protected 2027 first-round pick in the trade, and Brooklyn threw in Paul Millsap as salary filler.
| BROOKLYNÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | WINSÂ Â Â | WIN%Â Â Â Â | PLAYOFFÂ Â Â | CONFÂ Â Â Â | CHAMP |
| Before Trade | 45.3 | 55.20% | 84.60% | 18.50% | 6.80% |
| After Trade | 46.1 | 56.20% | 88.40% | 19.70% | 7.70% |
| Difference | 0.8 | 1.00% | 3.80% | 1.20% | 0.90% |
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| PHILADELPHIA | WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before w/ Simmons | 47 | 57.30% | 88.70% | 5.90% | 1.30% |
| After Trade | 46.4 | 56.60% | 86.70% | 5.40% | 1.20% |
| Difference | -0.6 | -0.70% | -2.00% | -0.50% | -0.10% |
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