Iowa vs. Illinois odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

A spot in the Final Four is on the line when Big Ten Conference rivals clash as the ninth-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes battle the third-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini in an NCAA Tournament South Region Elite 8 matchup on Saturday. Iowa is coming off a 77-71 win over fourth-seeded Nebraska on Thursday in the Sweet 16, while Illinois defeated second-seeded Houston 65-55. The Hawkeyes (24-12), who placed ninth in the Big Ten at 10-10, have won three in a row and four of five. The Fighting Illini (27-8), who tied for second in the Big Ten at 15-5, have won three straight and five of six.

Tip-off from the Toyota Center in Houston is set for 6:09 p.m. ET. Illinois leads the all-time series 95-77, including a 75-69 win in their last meeting on Jan. 11. Illinois is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Iowa vs. Illinois odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 138.5. 

Before making any Iowa vs. Illinois picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Iowa vs. Illinois 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of the simulations!

So who wins Iowa vs. Illinois, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!