Heat vs. Celtics Wednesday NBA injury report, spread, odds: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown will play; SportsLine Projection Model downgrades Boston futures without Robert Williams

The most important game Wednesday around the NBA is clearly Miami at Boston as they battle for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference along with Milwaukee and Philadelphia, although getting a top-two seed might not be a great thing this year because of Brooklyn. The Celtics will see the return of All-Star Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but have lost center Robert Williams for likely the season. The SportsLine Projection Model hugely downgraded Boston's NBA futures without "Time Lord." Click here for model picks. 

Williams tore his meniscus in Sunday's win over Minnesota and had surgery but still could potentially be back for the second round of the playoffs if the Celtics get there as Williams has been given an early timetable of 4-6 weeks. That's far from a sure thing, though. Star Cleveland guard Collin Sexton has missed the majority of this season after undergoing surgery for a meniscus tear. Everyone heals differently.

The 24-year-old Williams, a 2018 first-round pick out of Texas A&M, will get some votes for Defensive Player of the Year, although he definitely won't win it now – he's +4000 at Caesars Sportsbook. He averages 10.0 points on stellar 73.6 percent shooting (mostly dunks; he's fourth in the NBA with 157 dunks) along with 9.6 rebounds and 2.2 blocks (second in the NBA) despite being just 6-foot-8.

A total of 139 players have been the closest defender on at least 600 shots in the NBA and Williams forces opponents to shoot only 35.5 percent, the best mark in the league, according to Second Spectrum. He and Marcus Smart are the anchors of the NBA's top defense.

In addition, Boston's starting five of Tatum, Brown, Smart, Williams and Al Horford had posted a plus-24.6 net rating in 2021-22 over 443 minutes together, easily tops in the league among lineups that have played at least 300 minutes. Defensively, the five-man lineup with Williams recorded a 94.2 net rating, also best in the NBA.

ESPN analyst and former Celtics center Kendrick Perkins said this of the injury: "It takes them from being a title contender to possibly being out in the second round. Rob Williams being out affects the Celtics in all aspects."

The SportsLine Projection Model seems to agree. It drops the Celtics from a 77 percent chance of winning the division (which is the team's only shot at the East's top seed) to 58.9 percent, of winning the Eastern Conference title from 25.4 percent to 7.1 and the NBA title from 11.3 percent to 2.0. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston at +430 to win the East and +900 for the NBA title.

If the Celtics and Heat finish tied for the Heat's best record, Boston would win the tiebreaker regardless because of a 2-0 series lead and the teams not meeting again after Wednesday. Williams, Tatum, Brown and Horford all sat out Monday's loss in Toronto but Tatum and Brown simply being in the second of a back-to-back. Horford sat Sunday and Monday for personal reasons but is also expected back.

Miami has lost four of five but hasn't been at full strength for some of those. It is listing three-point sharp-shooter Duncan Robinson (11.1 ppg) as questionable with a non-COVID illness. He hasn't missed a game since Jan. 3.   

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