Fred VanVleet next NBA team odds: Raptors favored to retain All-Star guard, but Rockets, 76ers, Bulls, Clippers among possible landing spots

With the 2023 NBA Draft completed last Thursday, the next big date on the league's offseason calendar is June 30. At 6 p.m. ET on Friday, the free agency negotiation period officially begins ahead of the league's annual moratorium period of July 1. Deals can be agreed to but can't be officially signed until July 6. One of the top free agents available is Raptors All-Star guard Fred VanVleet. SportsLine offers odds on his next team.

VanVleet is on a short list of best undrafted players in modern league history. He wasn't selected in the 2016 draft despite a stellar college career at Wichita State. VanVleet was an All-Star for the first time in 2021-2022, and this past season the 29-year-old VanVleet averaged 19.3 points, 7.2 assists (a career high) and 4.1 rebounds per game.

He's a very good defender who ranked third in the NBA in steals (1.78) and was first in deflections per game (3.8), as well as total deflections (262). VanVleet was fifth in the league in minutes played per night (36.2). He would make any contender better but is looking for an annual value of roughly $30 million. Outside of Toronto, there aren't many teams that will be able to sign VanVleet outright without a sign-and-trade.

It's not clear if the Raptors will maintain the core of the team that finished 41-41 this past season and was stunned at home in the play-in game by Chicago. Toronto has much more talent in the fold than a .500 record would suggest. While VanVleet declined to exercise his player option for this year, fellow guard Gary Trent Jr. did exercise his in a minor surprise, so he'll be back. Center Jakob Poeltl also is a UFA. Like VanVleet, the team wants him back but Poeltl said he doesn't want to be in a rebuild situation. If the Raptors re-signed VanVleet, it would signal an intent to compete.

Not too long ago, the Suns were considered a top VanVleet suitor but that's likely no longer the case after they traded for Bradley Beal. Phoenix now essentially has no assets it could even entice the Raptors with in a possible sign-and-trade, and the Suns would pay a gigantic luxury tax bill if they signed VanVleet as a free agent, which would take some incredible cap accounting skills. Sure, in theory the Suns could sign-and-trade Deandre Ayton to Toronto for VanVleet, but Phoenix would then seriously lack size.

(The salary cap for next season is projected to be $136 million and the luxury tax is projected to be $165 million -- higher by $2 million and $3 million, respectively, than initial projections by the league.)

We may not know what VanVleet's plans are until the James Harden's free agency is resolved. If the Beard returns to Philadelphia, then the Sixers don't need VanVleet. If Harden goes to Houston, then Philly would absolutely need VanVleet– and the Sixers are now coached by former Raptors coach Nick Nurse.

The Rockets are an option themselves if they don't get Harden, as if any team needs a respected veteran in the locker room, it's that one. Houston has by far the most cap space in the league and would have no trouble signing VanVleet outright.

The Los Angeles Clippers need point guard help in a bad way and nearly acquired Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon from Boston ahead of last week's draft before that deal fell apart. VanVleet would be a perfect fit on that team and reunite with former teammate Kawhi Leonard, who led the Raptors to their only NBA title in 2019. The Clippers were one of the teams heavily linked to VanVleet at the 2023 trade deadline, but the Raptors reportedly asked for Terance Mann and a first-round pick in exchange for VanVleet, which was too steep for L.A.

Chicago is desperate for point guard help with the devastating injury to Lonzo Ball, who is expected to miss yet another season. VanVleet is from Illinois. I'm not sure the Bulls are ready to go into the luxury tax by adding VanVleet and re-signing Nikola Vucevic, but maybe some sort of sign-and-trade works out if VanVleet tells Toronto he wants to return home.

Orlando was considered a possibility as that's another young team that could use some leadership, but VanVleet is likely no longer an option after the Magic took Arkansas point guard Anthony Black at No. 6 overall in the draft. Toronto did not "replace" VanVleet at point guard in the draft, but took Kansas small forward Gradey Dick.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will Fred VanVleet open the 2023-24 season with?

• Raptors Even
• Rockets +400
• 76ers +500
• Bulls +700
• Clippers +800
• Mavericks +1000
• Lakers +1500
• Heat +1700
• Suns +1800
• Magic +2000

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