Fantasy Football Week 9 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies. If you're unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread in which Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme.

In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5. In Week 6, Gibbs' matchup data pointed towards Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as being in a terrific spot against Minnesota's Cover-3 and Cover-6 combo, and the Miami duo dropped a combined 53.7 DraftKings points. In Week 7, Gibbs helped DFS players avoid Deebo Samuel's lowest output (9.4 DK points) of the season. In Week 8, Gibbs nailed the DJ Moore bounce-back spot (season-high 30.5 DK points) and was all over the Dolphins stack against a coverage scheme that was susceptible to downfield attacks. Hill, Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa combined for over 100 DK points in that spot.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found seven that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Chris Godwin against a Rams defense that leads the NFL in Cover-3 usage.

"This defense is much easier to attack through the air than on the ground, and they have the lowest opponent average time to throw and depth of target -- Godwin stands to benefit from all three," Gibbs said. "He has a 26% target share in each of the past three games, and he's drastically underpriced as the 16th-most expensive WR on DraftKings."

Gibbs also loves the schematic fit for both Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin, but worries about the game environment if Washington is able to move the ball on the ground and drain the clock.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And could DJ Moore finally be trending in the right direction? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

Tee Higgins is set for a big day against a Panthers defense that doesn't get pressure on the QB

Week 8 was a disappointment for Tee Higgins and the Bengals pass offense, but there's a fantastic bounce back opportunity in Week 9. Carolina ranks 7th in rush defense DVOA and 27th vs the pass, and is one of 10 teams with a pressure rate below 20%.

That's big news for a Bengals offensive line that is doing its best to remain standing with one week left before a much-needed bye.

Carolina's average opponent time to throw is 2.8 seconds, which is big news for Higgins specifically. Since the start of 2021, Higgins has the highest yard per route run in the NFL on plays in which the quarterback had 2.8 or more seconds to throw. Higgins has been targeted on 33% of his routes when Cincinnati has had 2.8+ seconds to throw -- the next-highest rate on the Bengals is 21%. Even when Ja'Marr Chase was healthy, Higgins was clearly the player who Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor were looking to get the ball to when there was time for downfield routes to develop.

The other notable takeaway from Carolina's defense is their heavy Cover-3 usage. The Panthers use Cover-3 on 42% of defensive plays -- the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Since the start of 2021, Burrow ranks third in passer rating and Higgins ranks 13th of 101 qualified receivers in yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3.

If Carolina's offense puts enough pressure on Cincinnati for this to not be a "lean on Joe Mixon and limp into the bye week" scenario, there's huge upside for Higgins in this matchup. He'll likely carry a subdued rostered rate after disappointing in a prime-time spot in Week 8.

When Kirk Cousins is given time to throw, Justin Jefferson is likely wide open

Even though their defense profiles similarly from a schematic standpoint, Washington doesn't provide the true eruption upside that a matchup against Detroit or Miami does. The Commanders don't offer enough offensive firepower to make shootouts likely, and they play at one of the slowest offensive paces in the NFL. Washington prefers to bleed the clock with the ground game, and the risk of them ruining a game environment is real on any given week.

I preface Jefferson's "dream matchup" this way so that he doesn't feel like someone that you have to go out of your way to fit into lineups. If you're making multiple tournament lineups, I would build one or two around Jefferson -- if he hits the top of his range of outcomes, it will yield a massive point total. Jefferson could get loose against this defense.

Washington ranks second in the NFL in rush defense DVOA but is just 28th against the pass. They're one of just seven teams that uses man coverage over 30% of the time defensively, and opponents have attacked aggressively downfield against this unit. The Commanders have the fifth-highest opponent average depth of target and the second-highest opponent average time to throw (2.9 seconds).

Since the start of 2021, on plays when Kirk Cousins has had at least 2.9 seconds to throw, Justin Jefferson has averaged 3.30 yards per route run -- the third-highest rate in the NFL.

A Cover-3 heavy Rams scheme presents an opportunity for Chris Godwin to pile up short-yardage targets

This Rams defense stands out as one of the league's most pronounced in several areas. They use Cover-3 on 59% of defensive plays, which is more than any other team uses any scheme. The Rams also have the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, which I would have expected to result in opponents attacking downfield.

Nope. This defense is an enigma. L.A.'s opponent average depth of target (6.2 yards) and average time to throw  (2.38 seconds) are actually both the lowest rates in the NFL. I checked L.A.'s splits when in neutral game scripts (score within six points) and found the same story. In fact, their opponent's average depth of target is all the way down to 5.2 yards in neutral game scripts. No other team has a rate below six seconds.

I don't know why teams have attacked the Rams this way. This is how teams have attacked them, though, and literally all four factors (a low pressure rate, heavy Cover-3 use, low opponent average depth of target and time to throw) stand to benefit Chris Godwin. This defense is notably easier to attack through the air (19th in pass defense DVOA) than on the ground (4th). Oh, and Godwin has a target share above 26% in each of the past three games. And he's just the 16th most-expensive WR on DraftKings in Week 9.

A quick run-down on the specific matchup boosts that Godwin is looking at in Week 9:

Godwin's per route rates since the start of 2021
(rank among 101 qualified WR in parentheses)

When his QB wasn't pressured:
25.8% target per route run rate (24th)
2.25 yards per route run (16th)

When facing Cover-3:
24.9% target per route run rate (17th)
2.04 yards per route run (24th)

When his QB had 2.4 or fewer seconds to throw:
28.3% target per route run rate (26th)
2.43 yards per route run (9th)

For reference, Godwin has a 23.7% target per route run rate and 1.91 yard per route run rate overall since the start of 2021, so he has seen a boost in both rates within each of the above subsets.

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There might be something here

Mike Evans could also go for a big day against this Rams defense

Everything that we've seen from L.A.'s opponents suggests that Chris Godwin is the Buccaneers receiver who is set to benefit the most from this matchup. The past (especially in just a seven-game sample size) isn't necessarily predictive of the future, though -- we don't know that Tom Brady and Todd Bowles will choose to attack this Rams defense through short-yardage targets.

In fact, Brady's 2022 average depth of target vs. Cover-3 is the fourth-highest among 30 qualified passers. And while his career splits vs. Cover-3 with Brady at QB don't stand out, Mike Evans has been excellent vs. the NFL's most common coverage scheme in 2022. Only Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Davante Adams have a higher yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3 than Evans in 2022.

The Rams have allowed some perimeter receivers to get behind their defense:

Week 1 -- Gabe Davis (4-88-1) and Stefon Diggs (8-122-1)
Week 2 -- Drake London (8-86-1)
Week 3 -- Marquise Brown (14-140)
Week 8 -- Brandon Aiyuk (6-81-1)

On paper, this matchup clearly seems to suit Chris Godwin. Both Buccaneers wideouts are viable DFS plays though, and you could get contrarian and go big with a Brady-Evans-Godwin stack if you suspect that this is the game where Tampa breaks out of the funk.

A Jets defense that has been somewhat susceptible to the deep ball could yield a ceiling performance for Gabe Davis or Stefon Diggs

The Jets are not necessarily a defense that we want to go out of our way to attack -- New York ranks eighth in both pass and overall defensive DVOA and has allowed just one game of 250+ passing yards and none of 275+.

I also do not feel confident that Zach Wilson will find any success moving the ball against Buffalo. So, even if the Bills do torch this defense, the game script may lead to a more run-heavy and conservative offensive game plan.

There is potential for Buffalo's stud perimeter duo to get behind this secondary for some splash plays, though. The Jets have the eighth-highest average opponent time to throw (2.83 seconds) and the seventh-highest average depth of target. New York uses a lot of man coverage, as well as heavy Cover-6 and Cover-4 use, and all three schemes typically lead to more downfield passing.

When Josh Allen has taken at least 2.83 seconds to throw, it comes as no surprise that the results have been explosive for his perimeter pairing. Still, though, I had no idea just how ridiculous the splits would be.

Yard per route run rate on plays where the QB had 2.8+ seconds to throw (2021-22)
(Rank among 101 receivers in parentheses)

2.96 -- Stefon Diggs (10th)
2.88 -- Gabe Davis (13th)

Yard per route run rate on plays where the QB had 2.8+ seconds to throw (2022)
(Rank among 101 receivers in parentheses)

4.14 -- Stefon Diggs (2nd)
3.80 -- Gabe Davis (3rd)

Buffalo's receivers are too dynamic to allow Allen this type of time to throw -- it's simply too much space to cover.

What we've seen from New York's defense is impressive. I feel more confident betting on Buffalo's offense, though. I don't feel confident enough in the overall game environment to build full stacks that include Allen, Diggs, and Davis, but stacking either wideout with Allen in this spot could absolutely yield you 60+ points.

Terry McLaurin could get behind this Vikings defense

It has been a disappointing season for Terry McLaurin. His target rates are way down, but he has shown some signs of life lately. After posting a troubling 16% target share and 27% air yardage share through six weeks with Carson Wentz, McLaurin has a 26% target share and 57% air yardage share in two games with Taylor Heinecke. With Heinecke at QB in 2021, McLaurin had a 26% target share and 43% air yardage share.

McLaurin will look to carry his momentum forward in a Week 9 matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA and 31st in opposing yards per attempt.

Minnesota has one of the league's most unique defenses, using Cover-6 schemes 31% of the time. The league average Cover-6 rate is just 8%, and only one other team even has a rate above 18%. Cover-6 and Cover-4 make up 50% of Minnesota's defensive plays, up from the league average of 21%.

Those have been the two best zones for McLaurin to face! His yard per route run rate is up 30% from the league average at the WR position when facing Cover-4 or Cover-6, compared to just 10% when facing any other zone scheme.

This makes sense! Teams throw deep against Cover-6.

The Vikings actually rank top-five in defensive efficiency against the deep ball in 2022, but teams have still chosen to attack downfield against them at a top-10 rate. If Washington falls behind early, we could see several downfield shots to McLaurin, who has three deep (15+ air yards) targets in each of the past two games. He's way too cheap on DraftKings ($5,900) and makes sense as a correlation play with Dalvin Cook or a potential ceiling-igniter correlation play with Justin Jefferson -- if McLaurin breaks a long play or two in this game, it fans the flames for Jefferson. It's unlikely that Minnesota will feel pressured to attack this game with pace and urgency, but the most conceivable path to that outcome definitely does come through a big McLaurin game. It could happen!

Check it out -- rest of season and Dynasty rankings updates! We have two months of new data available to us, so I set aside time this week to dig in and update those rankings for SportsLine members. Some changes will come as no surprise -- Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and Rhamondre Stevenson are of course on the rise -- but there are definitely several nuggets to be found in the per-route data that has been compiled. Notably, my perception on Michael Pittman, Terry McLaurin, Darnell Mooney, and Jaylen Waddle has shifted since the start of the season.

If you have any feedback or questions, please don't hesitate to hit me up on Twitter.

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