Fantasy Football Week 8 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies. If you're unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread where Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.

In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5. In Week 6, Gibbs' matchup data pointed towards Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as being in a terrific spot against Minnesota's Cover-3 and Cover-6 combo, and the Miami duo dropped a combined 53.7 DraftKings points. And in Week 7, Gibbs helped DFS players avoid Deebo Samuel's lowest output (9.4 DK points) of the season.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found seven that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Deebo Samuel in a bounce-back spot against a Rams defense that leads the NFL in Cover-3 usage.

Davante Adams is the only player who has a higher target per route run rate vs. Cover-3 than Samuel since the start of the 2021 season.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And could DJ Moore finally be trending in the right direction? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

Deebo Samuel should bounce back against L.A.'s league-high Cover-3 rate

As we covered last week, Cover-3 is important for Deebo Samuel. Cover-3 is by far the most prevalent coverage scheme in the NFL -- it is used 35% of the time, with the next-highest rate being just 21% -- and no team uses Cover-3 more than the Los Angeles Rams.

Samuel went for 26.7 DraftKings points against L.A. in Week 4, and we could see something similar if his hamstring allows him to take advantage of this schematic fit.

If Deebo isn't able to suit up, Brandon Aiyuk would project as a borderline top-15 Fantasy WR in this matchup. Aiyuk has drawn 11 targets in back-to-back games and has healthy splits vs. Cover-3 in 144 career routes run without Samuel.

Aiyuk has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes when facing Cover-3 without Samuel on the field, up from 20.6% when facing any other coverage scheme without Samuel, while his yard per route run rate is up from 1.47 to 1.64.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been 29% more likely to draw targets when facing man coverage, and he faces the NFL's third-most man-heavy coverage scheme in Week 8

Amon-Ra St. Brown did not suffer a concussion in Week 7 and should be healthy and ready to take advantage of a susceptible Miami coverage scheme in Week 8. The Dolphins rank seventh in rush defense DVOA but are just 25th against the pass, and their heavy use of man coverage presents an exciting opportunity for the Sun God. The Dolphins are one of just three teams that use man coverage over 40% of the time.

Displayed below are Amon-Ra St. Brown's career splits vs. man/zone schemes.

Target per route run rate:

22.6% -- Zone coverage
31.9% -- Man coverage

Yard per route run rate:

1.83 -- Zone coverage
2.03 -- Man coverage

Since the start of 2021, St. Brown ranks fifth in target per route run rate vs. man coverage. He doesn't have enough routes to qualify in 2022, but his 39.4% target per route run rate vs. man coverage would be the highest in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit's defense is one of the two that uses man coverage more than the Dolphins. This could quickly turn into a shootout.

Detroit brings a 43.9% man coverage rate and 31st-ranked pass defense DVOA into a projected shootout against what may be the most dangerous wide receiver duo in the NFL.

The other important aspect of Detroit's defense is their inability to get pressure on the quarterback. Even though they blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, Detroit ranks just 16th in pressure rate on the year. And recently, we have seen the Lions decrease the aggressiveness of their blitz packages. Over the past month, the Lions rank 14th in blitz rate, and they sit in dead last in pressure rate during that time as a result.

Since the start of 2021, Tua Tagovailoa ranks 29th among 37 qualified quarterbacks in pass rating when pressured but is 8th when not pressured. In 2022, only Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith have a better passer rating than Tagovailoa without incoming pressure, and no QB has averaged more yards per attempt. Tua also has the highest average depth of target (9.21 yards) when not pressured.

This brings us back to Detroit's defense. Because of their inability to put pressure on the QB, Detroit has the highest opponent average time to throw in the NFL and a corresponding 8.5-yard opponent average depth of target (seventh-highest). The Lions don't get pressure on the QB, particularly so of late, and teams aggressively and successfully attack downfield against single-man coverage. No QB has been more aggressive in pushing the ball downfield when not pressured than Tagovailoa, and his wide receivers should have no issue getting open against single-man coverage.

Of the two, Tyreek Hill is the player with better splits vs. man coverage. Hill has the NFL's third-highest target per route run rate and eighth-highest yard per route run rate vs. man coverage since the start of 2021 -- Waddle ranks 34th and 30th (among 98 qualified receivers), respectively.

It's also worth noting that Waddle is being used completely differently in Year 2 than he was when the majority of those splits were accumulated. In fact, he's the Miami receiver whose route tree seems like the most intuitive fit for this matchup.

2022 average route depth:

7.5 yards -- Tyreek Hill
9.4 yards -- Jaylen Waddle

Waddle is also the Miami receiver who is more underpriced on DraftKings, coming in at an $1,800 discount to Hill. Both receivers are strong plays -- I'll have more exposure to Waddle this weekend, but I will use plenty of both. I love the idea of a four-man stack of Tagovailoa, St. Brown, Hill, and Waddle for tournament play -- for more specific angles on the best way to approach stacking this game, be sure to check back on Friday for my weekly DFS stacking article.

Atlanta's Cover-2-heavy defense ranks dead last in DVOA vs. the pass and could be just what DJ Moore needs to build momentum

The Panthers are using Moore more in the slot and on short-designed routes -- namely, screens and slants.

This change has led to a spike in Moore's target volume, which is great for his overall Fantasy outlook. More short routes also fit Moore's specific Week 8 matchup quite well. The Falcons use Cover-2 at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Cover-2 is known for funneling targets to the short area of the field. Typically, this would be a classic Christian McCaffrey spot. McCaffrey does have the highest career target per route run rate against Cover-2 among active players, after all. With the star running back removed from the equation, Carolina's offense has run through Moore.

I was surprised to find out that even with McCaffrey posting the NFL's highest target per route run rate vs. Cover-2, Moore still has strong splits vs. the specific coverage scheme. Among 36 receivers with at 150+ routes run vs. Cover-2 since the start of 2020, Moore ranks ninth in target per route run rate and fifth in yard per route run rate.

In a matchup against a Falcons squad that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and is fresh off of allowing a combined 83 (!) DraftKings points to Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins, Moore could absolutely crush value at diminished price tags of $5,300 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel.

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There might be something here

A struggling Saints pass rush bodes well for Derek Carr, Davante Adams, and Mack Hollins

The Saints have typically been one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL, but New Orleans ranks just 20th in pass defense DVOA and 19th vs. the run in 2022. The Raiders are implied for 25.5 points in this spot, while New Orleans carries a healthy 24-point implied team total. Vegas ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and 27th overall, and this game could quickly turn into a shootout.

If a struggling Raiders defense can't stop New Orleans and Vegas is pushed into a more pass-heavy offensive attack, we could see huge results against a struggling Saints pass rush. New Orleans ranks just 29th in blitz rate and 28th in pressure rate -- as a result, their opponents have an above-average time to throw rate (2.75 seconds) and depth of target (8 yards). 

Since the start of 2021, Derek Carr ranks 23rd among 37 qualifiers in passer rating when facing pressure but is 10th when not pressured. His average depth of target is just below the NFL average when pressured, but we've seen Carr take the time to push the ball downfield (eighth-highest aDOT) when not under pressure.

Carr's downfield route runners -- Mack Hollins and Davante Adams, specifically -- have seen a corresponding boost in efficiency when their QB is not pressured. Adams is who Carr has leaned on when pressured. He has drawn a target on 31% of his routes run when his QB is under pressure, compared to a 30% rate when not pressured -- but his non-pressured targets have been much more valuable. Adams' catch rate rises from 57% to 66% when Carr isn't pressured, and his yard per route run rate is up from 1.91 to 2.65.

The splits are even more pronounced for Mack Hollins. Due to the nature of his downfield-oriented route tree, Hollins has drawn a target on just 8.9% of his routes run when Carr has been pressured. Compare that to a healthy 19% rate when Carr is not facing pressure.

Another way to frame it is through the Las Vegas splits when Carr has had at least 2.75 seconds to throw. On 89 dropbacks with at least 2.75 seconds to throw, Carr has been locked in on Adams and Hollins. Those two each have over 200 receiving yards within that split, while no other Raider has more than 100.

Receiving stats on dropbacks where Derek Carr had 2.75+ seconds to throw:

Davante Adams -- 24 targets, 13 receptions, 275 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns
Mack Hollins -- 16 targets, 9 receptions, 247 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Kyler Murray's splits suggest that he should find success against a Cover-6-heavy Vikings scheme

The coverage schemes that the Vikings use are in no way similar to the Saints, yet they actually provide a somewhat similar baseline for opposing offensive attacks. Minnesota doesn't bring the blitz (25th) or get pressure (22nd), and has a well-above-average opponent time to throw (2.85 seconds -- 27th) and average depth of target (8.43 seconds -- 24th).

While New Orleans uses heavy man coverage, the Vikings are one of just two teams to use man coverage on fewer than 10% defensive plays. Unlike most zone-heavy defenses, the Vikings are susceptible to the deep ball as a result of their extremely unusually Cover-6-heavy scheme. The NFL average Cover-6 rate is 8.4% -- Minnesota's 29% rate is not only the highest in the league, but is the only rate above 25% and one of just three above 15%.

Teams attack downfield against Cover-6.

The other coverage scheme that Minnesota uses a ton of is Cover-4. Minnesota has a combined 49% Cover-4/6 rate, up from a league average of 21%.

Kyler Murray has been significantly better when not pressured, and he carries notably better splits vs. the specific coverage schemes that the Vikings use. Since the start of 2021, Murray has the NFL's fifth-highest passer rating when facing Cover-4 and Cover-6. When facing any other coverage schemes, Murray ranks 20th in passer rating. He ranks 25th in passer rating when pressured and 12th when not pressured. On paper, this is a near-perfect matchup for Kyler.

When digging into Murray's splits vs. these coverage schemes, I expected to find strong numbers for his downfield threats. However, his average depth of target has come way down relative to the NFL average when facing Cover-4.

DeAndre Hopkins has posted notably worse splits vs. Cover-4 and Cover-6 during his time in Arizona, but his splits when Murray is not pressured are encouraging -- since the start of 2020, Hopkins has an elite 2.93 yard per route run rate when his QB isn't pressured, compared to 2.21 when pressured. I view this as a neutral schematic fit for Hopkins, while Arizona's splits since 2020 indicate that Eno Benjamin and Zach Ertz should see a slight boost in their projections. And given Minnesota's defensive struggles as a whole, all Cardinals receive a slight boost.

The main takeaway is that this seems like a great spot for Murray, whose roster rate may be a bit subdued on a slate where many are paying the minimum price tag for Sam Ehlinger.

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