Fantasy Football Week 7 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies. If unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread where Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.

In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5. In Week 6, Gibbs' matchup data pointed towards Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as being in a terrific spot against Minnesota's Cover-3 and Cover-6 combo, and the Miami duo dropped a combined 53.7 DraftKings points.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found six spots that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Allen Lazard against a blitz-heavy and man-heavy Commanders coverage scheme. Lazard's career splits are much better vs. man than zone coverage, and Aaron Rodgers has leaned on him when blitzed in 2022.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And could CeeDee Lamb finish as Week 7's WR1 in Dak Prescott's return to the field against a blitz-heavy Lions defense? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

Allen Lazard's splits vs. man coverage and the blitz suggest that he is without a doubt the Packers WR to target in Week 7

Washington's defense has held up better lately against the likes of Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill, and Cooper Rush, but we saw Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence light this unit up to open the season. On the year, the Commanders rank 19th in pass defense DVOA and 5th against the run.

I'm not confident in Washington's ability to put points on the board and keep this game competitive. What we saw from the Commanders offense in Week 6 was disgusting, and they will likely again go run-heavy while facing a run-funnel defense (Green Bay ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and dead last vs. the run) with their backup quarterback. This game has just a 41.5-point over/under and could turn into a clock-draining punt fest.

I preface with that so that you don't get overly excited to play Allen Lazard in this spot because he is underpriced and fits the specificities of Washington's schematic approach quite well. The Commanders are one of nine teams that brings the blitz at least 30% of the time; they're also one of nine teams that uses man coverage at least 30% of the time. Both tendencies favor Lazard.

Josh Jacobs is set to keep rolling

Houston ranks 16th in pass defense DVOA and 29th vs. the run. The Raiders have really leaned on Josh Jacobs as their offensive driving force recently, and we should expect the same in this spot.

Everything about his Week 7 spot sets up nicely for Jacobs:

• Houston struggles against the run.
• The Raiders have the fourth-highest implied total (26.25 points) on the slate.
• The Raiders are heavy favorites (-7).
• The Raiders are coming off of their bye week.
• Jacobs is ridiculously underpriced ($6,500) on DraftKings.

You likely already know to play Josh Jacobs in Week 7. I'm just here to add this extra layer of matchup appeal -- the Texans use Cover-2 on 27% of defensive plays, making them the only defensive unit with a rate above 25%. Teams target the running back position significantly more when facing Cover-2. Houston's opponents have been 15% more likely to target the RB position compared to the league average in 2022.

On paper, Jacobs projects as a game script-independent play who will likely dominate on the ground if leading or pile up Fantasy points through the air if the Raiders fall behind and are forced into a more pass-heavy game plan. He offers a "safer" point-per-dollar projection than Kenneth Walker, who is the only back whose DraftKings price tag ($5,800) is nearly as absurdly off-base. Those two should be lock buttons for cash games, and both offer enough upside to be considered strong tournament plays even at elevated rostered rates.

Mark Andrews has been targeted on 36% of his routes vs. Cover-3 and only five teams use Cover-3 more than the Browns

Top targets get fed vs. Cover-3. In 2022, the only players with a higher target per route run rate vs. Cover-3 than Mark Andrews are Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill.

The Browns have used Cover-3 on 41% of their defensive plays in 2022 -- only five teams use it more often. Cleveland ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA, and Lamar Jackson could rebound in a big way in this matchup. Jackson ranks seventh among 37 qualified passers in yards per attempt vs. Cover-3 since the start of 2021, and he's third in that category in 2022.

Jackson also should benefit from a Browns defense that rarely blitzes or gets pressure. Cleveland has the 10th-lowest blitz rate (22%) and pressure rate (20%), and Jackson has been notably better when kept clean. Since the start of 2021, he ranks 28th among 37 qualified passers in passer rating vs. the blitz and is 14th when not blitzed.

The Ravens are expected to find success (26-point implied team total) in this soft matchup, which should only mean good things for Lamar Jackson's top target. Since the start of 2021, Andrews has averaged 25.1 DraftKings points in games in which the Ravens have scored at least 26 points, compared to an 18.5 DK point average in all other games.

CeeDee Lamb set to explode vs. Detroit's defense

CeeDee Lamb's underlying data has been extremely exciting all year -- he's essentially hogging targets as if he were Davante Adams, but it has been masked by the low volume in Dallas. The Cowboys bring a 28-point implied team total into Week 7 that has already climbed by half a point since opening, and we could see a drastic increase in Dallas' receiving volume if Detroit's offense can put points on the board (the Lions are implied for 21 points).

If Lamb's rate stats maintain while the raw volume increases, he's going to explode. He has the highest target share in the NFL (33.3%), and his 39.5% air yardage share ranks fifth.

If these rate stats don't fall off, Lamb could easily finish as the highest-scoring Fantasy wide receiver while facing a Lions defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA in Week 7.

More specifically, Detroit's defense ranks second in man coverage use (45.8%) and third in blitz rate (35.9%) -- both provide further reason to expect a Week 7 explosion from Lamb.

Lamb has been targeted on 39% of his routes when his QB has been blitzed in 2022, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. He also has been targeted on 39% of his routes vs. man coverage, which is the leauge's third-highest rate. He's a lock on DraftKings at just $6,800 -- no player at any position brings a better point-per-dollar projection. Lamb isn't quite as egregiously priced on FanDuel, but he's still the top play at the WR position.

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There might be something here

Amari Cooper brings exciting upside against a man-heavy Baltimore coverage scheme

One of the few players whose 2022 splits against man coverage can rival CeeDee Lambs' is his former teammate, Amari Cooper. Cooper brings the NFL's ninth-highest target per route run rate vs. man coverage (36.8%), and his yard per route run rate is up from 1.26 vs. zone to 2.58 vs. man coverage.

Cooper's splits throughout his career have been significantly better when facing man coverage, and he'll face a bit more man in Week 7 than usual. The Ravens rank 11th in the NFL in man coverage rate in 2022 and seventh since the start of 2021.

Tyreek Hill (11-190-2) and Jaylen Waddle (11-171-2) got behind this defense in Week 2, but we've seen the Ravens limit Stefon Diggs (4-62) and Ja'Marr Chase (7-50) since then. Outside of Miami, Baltimore's opponents have not found success in pushing the ball downfield. In fact, the Ravens have the league's seventh-lowest opponent average depth of target after posting the eighth-highest in 2021.

Baltimore ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA but just 24th against the run, so we should expect the Browns to attempt to attack in the way they prefer -- on the ground. If Cleveland falls in an early hole, though, we could see an explosive performance from Amari Cooper in this spot.

Kansas City's strange schematic offering seems to favor George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk

Kansas City's strange coverage scheme usage does not guarantee that Deebo Samuel will disappoint in this spot. I highlighted the coverage schemes that the Chiefs use significantly more than the league average, but those aren't necessarily the schemes that they use the most often -- for example, while Kansas City does use Cover-0 at the NFL's sixth-highest rate, that rate is only 6.6%.

Deebo Samuel could still get loose if this game turns into a shootout. I'm not suggesting that Brandon Aiyuk should be ranked ahead of Samuel in this matchup.

I just hoped to highlight the fact that this is an unusual schematic matchup, and the data that we have indicates that we can expect a decrease in targets and efficiency for Deebo Samuel, a slight increase for Brandon Aiyuk, and a potentially large increase for George Kittle.

If Tennessee is forced to the air, Robert Woods could pile up targets vs. a Colts defense that uses Cover-3 nearly 60% of the time

The Titans are 2.5-point home favorites and will likely attempt to lean on the ground game while facing a Colts defense that allowed Derrick Henry's most efficient rushing performance of the season in Week 4. Henry rumbled for 114 yards and a score on 22 attempts against Indianapolis in a game where Ryan Tannehill only attempted 21 passes, and we could see something similar in Week 7.

Even in that low-volume effort, Robert Woods converted his four targets into a 4-30-1 receiving line. We could see similar efficiency in this spot, as Woods faces a Colts defense that ranks sixth in rush defense DVOA but is just 18th against the pass. The Colts use Cover-3 at the NFL's second-highest rate (57.6%). As we've already hit on multiple times throughout today's article, Cover-3 provides a boost to top targets.

Robert Woods has clearly operated as Tennessee's top target over the past month. In fact, on a per-route basis, few players have drawn targets at a higher rate than Woods.

His splits vs. Cover-3 back this notion up, as Woods has been targeted on 13 of 40 routes for an elite 32.5% rate while averaging an equally impressive 2.95 yards per route run.

The Titans will likely lean on the run in this spot. However, if the offensive changes that we saw from the Colts in Week 6 are legit, we could see Indianapolis put points on the board against a Tennessee defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. If Tennessee is forced into a more pass-heavy approach, Woods could sneakily finish as one of the top Fantasy scorers at the WR position in this matchup.

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