Fantasy Football Week 6 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies.

If unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread where Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.

In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found six spots that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Tyler Lockett against a blitz-heavy Cardinals defense. Dating back to 2021, Geno Smith has leaned on Lockett when blitzed.

Gibbs also identified what may be a prime bounce-back spot for an underachieving wide receiver. He wouldn't be surprised at all if that player turns his season around in a matchup conducive to the types of routes that the receiver specializes in.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And what should Justin Jefferson expect against Miami? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown have strong splits vs. Cover-3 and Cover-6 and are next in line to eat against a generous Seattle secondary

Seattle ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, and with Geno Smith playing at an elite level, Seahawks games bring a lot of shootout potential when the opposing offense is capable of taking advantage of Seattle's soft zone schemes.

The two most prevalent schemes in Seattle's zone-heavy arsenal are Cover-3 and Cover-6. In the Twitter thread that I created detailing the effects of each specific coverage scheme, you'll find the following takeaways for Cover-3 and Cover-6:

• Top targets get fed against Cover-3
• Teams throw deep against Cover-6

These certainly sound like favorable circumstances for Marquise Brown, who has been among the absolute best Fantasy wide receivers over the past month.

Since the start of 2021, only Aaron Rodgers (104.7) has a better passer rating when facing Cover-3 or Cover-6 than Kyler Murray (101.3). Murray has struggled against man coverage and Cover-2, but he's been quite good when facing Cover-3, 4, and 6.

In 85 routes run vs. these coverage schemes in 2022, Marquise Brown has a massive 30.6% target per route run rate -- compare that to 26.4% vs. any other coverage scheme. Brown's career rates are improved when facing these defenses as well. He should find success in this matchup, and he could finish as Week 6's highest-scoring Fantasy WR if the game shoots out.

Arizona's blitz-heavy approach could lead to another big outing from Tyler Lockett

If this game does shoot out, both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could continue to ball for the Seahawks. Geno Smith is PFF's number-one graded passer and is playing legitimately excellent football right now.

If picking one of the two Seahawks receivers to take advantage of an Arizona unit that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA, I'm going with Lockett. His $5,600 price tag on DraftKings is absurdly cheap, and the limited sample size that we have on Geno Smith facing the blitz suggests that Lockett will benefit more from an Arizona blitz-heavy scheme than Metcalf.

The Cardinals bring the blitz at the second-highest rate (41.7%) in the NFL. Geno has been blitzed on 65 dropbacks since the start of 2021, and he locked in on Lockett on those plays.

Target per route run rate when Geno Smith was blitzed: Tyler Lockett (29%), DK Metcalf (23%)
Yards per route run rate when Geno Smith was blitzed: Tyler Lockett (2.56), DK Metcalf (1.88)

If looking at specific coverage types, the only ones that Arizona uses at an above-average rate are Cover-3 and Cover-6. The Cardinals have been very man-heavy in the past, but their man coverage rate (25.4%) is right in line with the NFL average (25.6%) in 2022.

DK Metcalf has the highest target per route run rate in the NFL vs. man coverage since the start of 2021, so he's definitely the player who would benefit if we expected Arizona to revert to a more man-heavy approach. The Cardinals have used fewer man looks as the season has progressed, though -- with just a 19% rate over their past three games.

So, who benefits from Cover-3 and Cover-6 looks? Again, it's Lockett.

Seattle's receivers vs. Cover-3 + Cover-6
(2021-22)

Target per route run rate
25% -- Tyler Lockett
24% -- DK Metcalf

Yards per route run
2.68 -- Tyler Lockett
1.89 -- DK Metcalf

Justin Jefferson set to shred Miami's man coverage

Not only does Justin Jefferson draw the defense with the NFL's worst pass defense DVOA ranking, but he also is set to benefit from a man-heavy Miami coverage scheme. The Dolphins are one of just three teams that uses man coverage over 40% of the time, and Jefferson is one of the NFL's absolute best at beating man coverage.

Justin Jefferson's man/zone splits
(2021-22 seasons)

Target per route run rate:
29.2% -- Man coverage
26.7% -- Zone coverage

Yard per route run rate:
2.85 yards -- Man coverage
2.72 yards -- Zone coverage

The Dolphins also are known for bringing one of the NFL's most aggressive blitz packages. Miami hasn't blitzed as much as in 2021 when they ranked second in the NFL, but the Dolphins still carry a healthy 25% blitz rate into this game.

Since the start of 2021, Kirk Cousins has targeted Jefferson on 27.6% of his routes when blitzed, up slightly from 26.6% when not blitzed.

Cousins has been locked onto Jefferson since his unusually quiet Week 3 -- Jefferson has turned his 26 targets into 301 yards over the past two weeks, and he brings similarly explosive upside in his Week 6 matchup. I wouldn't expect Jefferson to be rostered at a high rate on a week where most people are using their salary to pay up for members of the Kansas City-Buffalo game, making this one of the best spots to target him in tournaments that we'll have all year. 

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There might be something here

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle draw an excellent matchup if the QB play is there to facilitate the production

I don't have much confidence that Skylar Thompson will be able to facilitate the volume necessary to justify paying up for Miami's receivers after he threw for just 166 yards on 33 attempts against the Jets in Week 5, but he does draw another positive matchup in Week 6. If you want to bet on a ceiling performance from Justin Jefferson, the Dolphins putting points on the board and keeping Minnesota's passing game aggressive correlates strongly.

Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are both relatively cheap for a matchup against a Minnesota defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA -- especially on DraftKings, where Waddle can be had for just $6,200.

While I'm not confident in Miami's seventh-round quarterback, this defense presents about as soft of a matchup as he could ask for. The Vikings only blitz 19% of the time (sixth-lowest) and get pressure 20% of the time (ninth-lowest). Compare that to the Jets, who have the NFL's fourth-highest pressure rate (29%). Minnesota has the fifth-highest opponent time to throw, and their situation neutral (score within six points) opponent average depth of target (10.5 yards) is the highest in the NFL.

This coincides with Minnesota's heavy Cover-6 usage.

Teams throw deep against Cover-6, which is particularly good news for Jaylen Waddle.

The Vikings have used Cover-6 on 29% of defensive plays in 2022 -- no other team has a rate above 20%. Minnesota's combined Cover-6 and Cover-4 rate is a league-high 52% -- up from a league average of 22%.

Check out the splits for Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill when facing Cover-4 or Cover-6 since the start of 2021:

Target per route run rate vs. Cover-4 + Cover-6:
29.5% -- Jaylen Waddle (3rd of 84 qualified WRs)
26.6% -- Tyreek Hill (7th)

Target per route run rate vs. Cover-4 + Cover-6:
2.81 -- Tyreek Hill (1st)
2.37 -- Jaylen Waddle (8th)

Again, we are ultimately placing a bet on a seventh-round rookie by rostering a Miami receiver this weekend. We have a lot of appealing options, so I'm hoping that I will not find myself in a position where I feel the need to place a bet on Skylar Thompson. This is certainly a positive schematic matchup for Waddle and Hill, if Thompson is capable of facilitating the volume to allow them to take advantage of it.

If his ankle allows him to, Tee Higgins could tee off against a struggling Saints pass rush

The Bengals have struggled to provide Joe Burrow with time to throw, a persistent problem for this offensive line. When Burrow has had time to throw, Tee Higgins has been by far the biggest beneficiary -- more on that later.

First, let's talk about this New Orleans pass rush.

The Saints are not getting any pressure. This defense was one of the least blitz-heavy (21% -- 6th-lowest in the NFL) in 2021, but they still got pressure on the QB at a league-average rate (24.7%). In 2022, the Saints are blitzing at the third-lowest rate (15.1%) and have just a 16.9% pressure rate. The Saints have the NFL's eighth-highest opponent average time to throw (2.8 seconds) as a result, as teams are taking advantage of the lack of pass rush and finding success attacking downfield.

New Orleans tied Washington for the league's highest opponent average depth of target (8.46 yards) in 2021, but they had the fourth-lowest opponent passer rating (63) on passes traveling 15-plus air yards. In 2022, the Saints have a nearly identical opponent average depth of target (8.53 yards), but their opponent passer rating on deep passes is up to 115.4 -- the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.

This brings us back to Tee Higgins.

Displayed below are Cincinnati's per-route rates on the 241 dropbacks that Joe Burrow has had at least 2.8 seconds (New Orleans' 2022 opponent average) to throw since the start of 2021.

Cincinnati target per route run rate with 2.8+ seconds to throw:

34.8% -- Tee Higgins
20.3% -- Ja'Marr Chase
17.2% -- Tyler Boyd

Cincinnati yard per route run rate with 2.8+ seconds to throw:

4.30 -- Tee Higgins
2.34 -- Ja'Marr Chase
1.48 -- Tyler Boyd

Those rates for Tee Higgins are absolutely insane.

For some context, here's how those compare to the rest of the league:

Target per route run rate with 2.8+ seconds to throw:
(2021-22 -- minimum 100 routes)

34.8% -- Tee Higgins
33.6% -- Mark Andrews
33.5% -- A.J. Brown
30.0% -- Tyler Lockett
28.9% -- Justin Jefferson

Yard per route run rate with 2.8+ seconds to throw:
(2021-22 -- minimum 100 routes)

4.30 -- Tee Higgins
3.93 -- Tyler Lockett
3.79 -- Cooper Kupp
3.55 -- Justin Jefferson
3.54 -- Davante Adams

He's been by far the best player within this subset -- it's not even close. Give Joe Burrow time to throw and Tee Higgins time to get open and the two are going to connect for massive results.

We don't even know if Higgins will play in Week 6, and we also don't know if Cincinnati's offensive line will be able to provide Burrow with time to throw. The Bengals have already faced defenses ranked third-lowest (Miami), fourth-lowest (Pittsburgh), and sixth-lowest (Baltimore) in pressure rate this season and have still struggled.

If Higgins is healthy enough to suit up, he is going to be one of the best tournament plays that we have an opportunity to target all year. His price tag is down, and I'd expect his rostered rate to be low as well after he suited up and barely played in Week 5. On top of that, this slate has a ton of appealing wide receiver plays. He brings explosive upside in this matchup, though -- if Higgins goes for 30-plus DK points at a sub-five percent rostered rate, you'll be at a massive advantage over the rest of the field.

Christian Kirk could bounce back vs. Indy's Cover-3 scheme

This comes on an extremely small sample size (51 routes), but Christian Kirk has been fed targets when facing Cover-3 as a member of the Jaguars. Kirk has a massive 33% target per route run rate and has averaged 3.06 yards per route run vs. Cover-3 in 2022.

This is consistent with what we know about Cover-3 -- top targets get fed against Cover-3.

The NFL average Cover-3 rate is 34%. Indianapolis has a 57% Cover-3 rate.

We saw Kirk shred this Colts coverage scheme for 25.8 DK points in Week 2, a game in which his result could have been much larger if the Jags were not leading throughout. Jacksonville is listed as a two-point dog in Week 6, and I'd expect a pass-heavy attack against a Colts defense that ranks second in rush defense DVOA but 21st against the pass.

In addition to the positive matchup, Kirk could benefit from the squeaky wheel narrative after an unusually quiet Week 5.

Mark Andrews should feast on the Giants defense

The Giants bring the second-highest man coverage rate and the highest blitz rate, both of which stand to boost Mark Andrews' already enormous target rate.

When blitzed, Andrews has a 39% target per route run rate -- tying CeeDee Lamb for the highest in the NFL. When facing man coverage, Andrews has a 38% target per route run rate, only DK Metcalf has a higher rate.

If not using man coverage, the Giants are likely (33% rate) to fall back into Cover-3. Andrews has a 33% target per route run rate vs. Cover-3, only Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Drake London have been targeted at a higher rate when facing Cover-3.

Amari Cooper gets a man-heavy Patriots coverage scheme

The Patriots use man coverage 40% of the time defensively, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Amari Cooper has drawn a target on 32% of his routes run vs. man coverage as a Brown, and he shredded the only man-heavy coverage scheme that he's faced (Pittsburgh) for a 7-101-1 line on 11 targets.

The Patriots rank eighth in pass defense DVOA and are 28th vs. the run, and I'd expect Cleveland to lean on the run game in this one. New England has allowed some big games to receivers (6-116 to Allen Lazard, 6-92 to Josh Reynolds, 8-94 to Tyreek Hill, and 4-69-1 to Jaylen Waddle), but there has yet to be a true explosion against this defense, and Rashod Bateman (2-59) and Diontae Johnson (6-57) were both held in check.

At a $5,900 price tag, Cooper brings the potential to produce a really strong point-per-dollar performance, but it feels unlikely that he's going to bring a truly tournament-winning output unless the Browns fall into an early hole and abandon the run game.

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