Fantasy Football Week 5 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found six spots that stand out.

One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: CeeDee Lamb against a Cover-3 heavy Rams defense. Top receivers get fed against Cover-3 schemes, and Lamb has one of the NFL's highest target per route run rates when facing Cover-3. 

Gibbs also identified what may be a prime bounce-back spot for an underachieving wide receiver. He wouldn't be surprised at all if that player turns his season around in a Week 5 matchup conducive to the types of routes that the receiver specializes in.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And is CeeDee Lamb a must-play in DFS against the Commanders? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

Atlanta's league-high Cover-2 rate is good news for Tom Brady and Chris Godwin

No team uses Cover-2 more than the Atlanta Falcons. I detailed Cover-2's effect on opposing passing games in the tweets below.

Tom Brady has the second-best passer rating vs. Cover-2 since the start of 2021. Brady is drastically underpriced on DraftKings, and he should find success in this spot. If you're pairing him with a receiver, I lean strongly towards Chris Godwin over Mike Evans.

L.A.'s Cover-3 scheme has been shredded by opposing WR1s -- it could be another big CeeDee Lamb week

The Rams used Cover-3 47% of the time in 2021. Their 2022 Cover-3 rate sits at 57% -- the highest in the NFL.

Miami's passing game should move the ball with ease against New York

Not only does this Jets defense rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, but they also present a near-perfect schematic fit for Teddy Bridgewater.

Bridgewater is notably better vs. man coverage. Check out his man/zone splits below.

Teddy Bridgewater's passer rating vs. man/zone coverage (2020-22):

Man -- 108.4 (+14.2% vs. the NFL average)
Zone -- 85.2 (-3.9% vs. the NFL average)

The Jets use man coverage at the NFL's 10th-highest rate (28%). New York's other notable schematic tendency is their league-high Cover-4 usage (29%). Guess which zone coverage scheme is the one and only that Teddy Bridgewater ranks above the NFL average against? Since the start of 2020, Bridgewater's passer rating ranks 7th among 21 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts vs. Cover-4.

And guess which wide receivers just happen to have the highest and second-highest target per route run rate against Cover-4 since the start of 2021?

Target per route run rate vs. Cover-4:
(rank among 54 qualified wide receivers in parentheses)

32.7% -- Jaylen Waddle (1st)
30.6% -- Tyreek Hill (2nd)

Yard per route run rate vs. Cover-4:
(rank among 54 qualified wide receivers in parentheses)

3.30 -- Tyreek Hill (1st)
2.45 -- Jaylen Waddle (10th)

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There might be something here

A.J. Brown brings explosive upside against Arizona

The Cardinals rank 11th in rush defense DVOA but are just 28th against the pass. Arizona hasn't used man coverage as often in 2022 as in 2021, but they still rank 15th in man coverage rate. One tendency that has not fallen off in 2022 is their blitz rate -- the Cardinals bring the blitz 43% of the time, ranking second behind only the Giants.

Since the start of 2021, A.J. Brown has the NFL's fourth-highest target per route run rate (32.9%) and second-highest yard per route run rate (3.49) when his QB is blitzed.

There's not much that stands out vs. the NFL average about Arizona's schematic tendencies other than their blitz rate. Their coverage rates are all right in line with the league average. I like this spot for Brown because of the blitz rate and because Arizona's defense forces short passing. The Cardinals have the sixth-lowest opponent average depth of target, and because they are so often bringing extra pass rushers, they've allowed the second-highest yards after the catch per reception.

It makes sense for Philadelphia to utilize Brown's catch-and-run ability to take advantage of Arizona's tendencies. Brown's average route depth is down from 9.9 yards as a Titan to 7.8 with Philadelphia, and his yardage after the catch per reception is the highest it has been since his rookie season. We saw Philly really shorten his route tree (6.3 yard average route depth) in Week 1 against a similarly blitz-heavy defense (Detroit), as 63 of Brown's 155 receiving yards came after the catch.

The Cardinals have held D.J. Moore and Cooper Kupp to 50 yards or less in back-to-back weeks, so I wouldn't view this as a sure-thing for Brown. There's definitely upside for him to break loose against this blitz-heavy scheme, though.

Yet another coverage scheme that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis should be able to take advantage of

In spite of notably better splits vs. man coverage, Buffalo's passing game has faltered in back-to-back matchups that seemed likely to yield big performances.

In Week 5, they'll get another crack at a man-heavy coverage unit in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers use man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and they've allowed highly Fantasy-relevant performances to opposing wide receivers each week so far.

Wide receivers vs. Pittsburgh:

Ja'Marr Chase -- 10-129-1
Jakobi Meyers -- 9-95
Nelson Agholor -- 6-110-1
Amari Cooper -- 7-101-1
Corey Davis -- 5-74-1

Both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have been much better against man coverage throughout their career and could get loose against a Steelers secondary that has been susceptible to perimeter wide receivers.

DeVante Parker and Jakobi Meyers have excellent splits vs. man coverage

Jakobi Meyers hasn't played since Week 2, but his practice reports leading up to Week 5's game suggest that he could make his return. Both he and DeVante Parker have quite pronounced splits vs. man coverage -- if what we've seen from Bailey Zappe in the preseason and in Week 4 is repeatable, either or both New England receivers could put up a big total against Detroit's man-heavy coverage schemes.

The Lions have the NFL's third-highest man coverage rate, and while this defense has been the easiest to attack on the ground, they rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA. A.J. Brown totaled 155 receiving yards against this secondary in Week 1, and we saw DK Metcalf go for 149 in Week 4. Now, Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker aren't exactly Brown or Metcalf-caliber players, but we've seen Detroit allow big Fantasy production to guys like Curtis Samuel (22.9 DK points), Adam Thielen (18.1) and Jahan Dotson (17.9). This is certainly a winnable matchup for the New England receivers, who should see a noticeable efficiency boost with Detroit's scheme bringing man coverage looks over 40% of the time.

Jakobi Meyers' splits vs. man/zone coverage (2021-22):

Target per route run rate:
29.8% -- man coverage
21.5% -- zone coverage

Yards per route run:
1.96 -- man coverage
1.64 -- zone coverage

DeVante Parker's splits vs. man/zone coverage (2021-22):

Target per route run rate:
24.4% -- man coverage
16.3% -- zone coverage

Yards per route run:
1.54 -- man coverage
1.47 -- zone coverage

Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase could go nuts on Sunday night

Baltimore uses man coverage at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL, and there's not a tougher passing game to try to stop in single-man coverage than Cincinnati's.

Yard per route run rate vs. man coverage:
(2021-22 seasons -- rank among 54 qualified wide receivers in parentheses)

2.89 -- Ja'Marr Chase (4th)
2.32 -- Tee Higgins (14th)

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