Fantasy Football Week 4 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game in Week 4 and found six spots that stand out.

One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: CeeDee Lamb against a blitz-heavy Commanders defense. Lamb has been a target hog in 2022, and blitzes have only caused Cooper Rush (and Lamb's past quarterbacks) to lean on the WR1 even more heavily. 

Gibbs also identified what may be a prime bounce-back spot for an underachieving wide receiver. He wouldn't be surprised at all if that player turns his season around in a Week 4 matchup conducive to the types of routes that the receiver specializes in.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And is CeeDee Lamb a must-play in DFS against the Commanders? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

My Thursday night action is centered around the Cincinnati passing game

Before we get into the Dolphins matchup, I want to point you in the direction of a Twitter thread that I put together. If you want a deeper understanding of schematic matchup data and how your research process can improve, it will be worth your time to give this thread a read.

Okay, let's get on with it. It's time for one of my favorite pastimes -- talking about Tee Higgins.

Anytime that the Bengals draw a man-heavy coverage scheme, it's a matchup that we should consider attacking. Cincinnati gets that in the form of a Dolphins defense that uses man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL in addition to ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. On top of that, Miami is traveling north on a short week after playing a game in which heat was causing noticeable issues -- not only for Buffalo Bills players but for Miami's guys as well.

The Bengals are listed as 3.5-point favorites, even though the respective play of these two teams doesn't suggest that Cincinnati warrants that type of respect. This feels like a perfect bounce-back opportunity for the Bengals, and the players who stand out as having the best schematic fit for attacking Miami happens to be Cincinnati's two best offensive weapons -- Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase.

Of the two, Higgins stands out as being more undervalued across DFS sites, and his receiving prop lines are a bit lower.

When both players have been healthy, Higgins has outproduced Chase -- he is the one who I am more aggressively targeting, but I made sure to get exposure to both players. Of the two, Chase has seen the bigger boost in his rates when facing man coverage.

Career man/zone splits:

Tee Higgins

Man coverage:
25.9% -- Target per route run rate
2.24 -- Yards per route run

Zone coverage:
21.1% -- Target per route run rate
2.09 -- Yards per route run

Ja'Marr Chase

Man coverage:
26.0% -- Target per route run rate
2.97 -- Yards per route run

Zone coverage:
21.3% -- Target per route run rate
2.18 -- Yards per route run

Chase has the fourth-highest yard per route run rate against man coverage since the start of 2021. Only Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, and DK Metcalf rank ahead of him. Higgins comes in ranked 13th during that time. It should come as no surprise, then, that Joe Burrow has the second-highest passer rating against man coverage since the start of last season.

In addition to using a lot of man coverage, the Dolphins love to blitz. Miami blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL in 2021, which is also good news for Chase and Higgins.

I have bets on both Higgins (+880) and Chase (+550) to hit 125+ receiving yards in this spot, as well as Burrow (+550) to hit 350+ yards passing -- if either receiver hits the 125-yard mark, it pays for all three bets. The Week 4 prop bet helper won't be published until Friday, so I wanted to make sure to at least get you this information prior to the Thursday night game -- the value on Cincinnati's wide receivers is one of the most exploitable edges that I've found in any Week 4 game.

Marcus Mariota's tendencies vs. Cover-3 support the 47.5-point over/under in the CLE-ATL game

I was really surprised to see the Falcons implied for 23 points against Cleveland, but the more that I've dug into the matchup the more confidence I feel that Marcus Mariota will be able to support this type of offensive environment. In fact, Mariota's tendency to attack aggressively downfield when facing zone coverage provides upside for this game to turn into a surprising shootout if he's able to connect on those deep shots.

Okay, let's get into Cleveland's defense before we spend any more time on Mariota -- the Browns almost never blitz (18% -- 27th in the NFL), are 26th in pressure rate (20%), and may be playing without Myles Garrett in Week 4. Cleveland uses almost exclusively zone coverage schemes -- only five teams have used less man coverage in 2022 -- with Cover-3 being their most prevalent scheme (44% -- compared to a 35% NFL average).

In 2021, Cleveland ranked middle of the pack in opponent average depth of target. In 2022, they have the second-highest opponent aDOT (9.5 yards) in the NFL. That's a bit of a surprise. The Browns do also use Cover-6 at an above-average rate, and Cover-6 looks lead to more downfield passing.

I expected Cleveland's defense to be a frustrating matchup for opposing passing games, but that has definitely not been the case over the past two weeks. Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky have moved the ball with relative ease against this defense, and Mariota -- who has been much better vs. zone coverage throughout his career -- is playing at a much higher level than those two.

What stood out to me about Mariota's career data was that his average depth of target was actually higher against zone coverage than man. That's atypical.

Cleveland ranked below the NFL average in opponent average passer rating on passes that traveled 10-plus or 15-plus air yards -- teams have been able to throw deep against the Browns, they just didn't do so at a very high rate in 2021. In 2022, they are throwing downfield at a high rate, and they're finding even more success -- Cleveland ranks 27th in opponent passer rating on passes traveling 10-plus air yards through three games. Their opponents were Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, and Mitch Trubuisky.

I expect Mariota to continue to look for and find Kyle Pitts and Drake London down the field in this matchup.

CeeDee Lamb should pile up targets against Washington's blitz-heavy defense

The Commanders have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the NFL after ranking sixth in 2021. While they are blitzing a lot, Washington ranks outside of the top 12 in both pressure and hurry rate. They rank 28th in overall defensive DVOA and are 29th against the pass. Wide receivers -- particularly 'slot-plus' types like Lamb -- have been targeted at a high rate and found little resistance against this defense.

Week 1 -- Christian Kirk (6-117 on 12 targets)
Week 2 -- Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-116-2 on 12 targets)
Week 3 -- DeVonta Smith (8-169-1 on 12 targets) and A.J. Brown (5-85-1 on 10 targets)

A similar outcome from Lamb should come as no surprise.

Lamb's target per route run rate when blitzed:
(since 2021)

Blitzed: 29.2% (9th of 109 receivers)
Not-blitzed: 21.9% (28th of 109 receivers)

Want to build your own winning NFL DFS lineups? Introducing our brand-new Daily Fantasy Lineup Builder tool. Use the model that powered three major Fantasy sites to create smart NFL DFS lineups. Our DFS optimizer simulates every game 10k times to give you the most up-to-date projections. Save your NFL DFS picks, get projected NFL DFS ownership percentages and see every player's projected ceiling and floor ... all with this one winning tool! Available right here for NFL DFS.

There might be something here

There's upside for Washington's downfield route runners against the Cowboys

We could get a shootout in this game. Both defenses have a lot of talent but are aggressive and put themselves in vulnerable positions when taking risks.

Both teams use man coverage and blitz at an above-average rate, with Washington standing out as slightly more aggressive in both regards.

Washington's defense has been much worse than Dallas'. The Cowboys are not a defense that we want to go out of our way to attack. They're eighth in overall defensive DVOA and sixth against the pass in 2022 after ranking second in both in 2021. There's a reason that Washington's Week 4 implied point total 19.25 points, and there's a reason that I am writing about the Commanders wide receivers in the 'there might be something here' section -- this is a good Dallas defense.

This is also a Dallas defense that occasionally allows big performances to wide receivers. D.J. Moore and Kadarius Toney both went nuts against this defense in 2021, and there were a handful of other 100-plus yard performances at the WR position. In 2022, both Mike Evans and Tee Higgins have gone for 71 yards and a score against Dallas. Perimeter wide receivers can beat this matchup.

Both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson bring exciting upside in this spot. Dallas has the seventh-highest opponent average depth of target in neutral situations (score within six points) since the start of 2021, and McLaurin and Dotson bring by far the highest aDOT for the Commanders.

We have more data on McLaurin than Dotson, and it fits this matchup quite well. McLaurin has been significantly better vs. man than zone, and his target per route run rate spikes when his QB has been blitzed. The DFS price point on Dotson is much more appealing, but that will likely result in an even lower rostered rate for McLaurin.

The Bills passing game brings explosive upside in another man-heavy matchup

Buffalo disappointed in a man-heavy matchup against Miami in Week 3, but they could bounce back against Baltimore. After ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA in 2021, the Ravens sit at 15th through three games. Baltimore also has not used man coverage nearly as much (25%) in 2022 as in 2021 (35%).

Pricing is a bit tighter this week than it has been to open the season, and I haven't found myself going all the way up for the Bills outside of game stacks in early builds. Each of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis bring notably better splits vs. man coverage, though, and this Ravens secondary has been one of the easiest to attack downfield for quite some time. There's upside -- between the Bills passing game splits and their banged-up defense, this game could quickly turn into a shootout.

If any defense could enable a D.J. Moore bounce-back, it's Arizona's

The Cardinals blitz at the highest rate in the NFL.

D.J. Moore when blitzed -- 29% target per route run rate
D.J. Moore when not blitzed -- 23% target per route run rate
(2021-22)

Of course, Baker Mayfield has only targeted Moore on 21% of his routes when blitzed in 2022.

The Cardinals also use a lot of man coverage -- Arizona is one of 11 teams to use man coverage over 30% of the time in 2022.

D.J. Moore vs. man coverage -- 29% target per route run rate
D.J. Moore vs. zone coverage -- 23% target per route run rate
(2021-22)

Mayfield has targeted Moore on 28% of his routes run vs. man coverage, so at least he has that going for him. Only three of the targets have been catchable. Moore caught all three and turned them into 61 yards and a touchdown.

Will D.J. Moore shred this Arizona secondary? Almost certainly. Will that result in any Fantasy points? I am even more certain that we have absolutely no idea what the answer is to that question. Do you want to place your faith in Baker Mayfield?

Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp action on the total, and props you can take to the window? Join Jonathan Coachman on the Early Edge as he speaks with SportsLine's top handicappers to preview every day's biggest games. We promise to keep it short, sweet and to put some green in your pocket. Early Edge is under 10 minutes and in your feed every single day by 11 AM ET. Download right here or wherever you get your podcasts.