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Fantasy Football Week 3 TE value watch: Kyle Pitts among risers, plus fallers to know based on key usage metrics
Get updated on everything you need to know about tight end usage in Week 3 from one of the nation's top Fantasy experts
Each week, we learn new information as the ever-changing Fantasy landscape at the tight end position reshapes itself. There are many specific usage stats that affect a TE's Fantasy projection, and outside of a few players, we see those underlying usage metrics fluctuate throughout the course of a season. And the first few weeks of the season present us with a flood of new data to make sense of.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will examine all of this new information and provide a data-driven deep dive into Sunday's games to offer a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
Here, we'll look at the leaderboards in several key metrics around tight end usage, then share our look at whose stock is rising after this weekend's action. That includes Atlanta's Kyle Pitts, who "had the second-highest target share of any player in Week 3," according to Gibbs.
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Week 3 Leaders
Route involvement rate -- the percentage of a team's routes on which a player runs a route.
Week 3 TE route involvement leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
93% - Travis Kelce
91% - Mark Andrews
89% - Darren Waller
87% - Zach Ertz
84% - Tyler Higbee, Cameron Brate
82% - David Njoku, George Kittle
80% - Evan Engram
77% - Cole Kmet
73% - Tyler Conklin, Gerald Everett, TJ Hockenson
68% - Kyle Pitts
To draw a target, a tight end must first be running a route. To run a route, a tight end's team must first be dropping back to pass.
Dropback rates -- which teams seem to want to pass the ball at the highest/lowest rates?
Dropback leaders on first down through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
Above average (53%)
67% - New Orleans
66% - Washington
65% - Arizona
64% - Buffalo
61% - NY Jets, LA Chargers, Minnesota
Low rates:
34% - Cleveland
35% - San Francisco (48% in Garoppolo's first start)
37% - Tennessee
Dropback rate leaders in the first half through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
Above average (63%)
79% - Buffalo
70% - Cincinnati, NY Giants
69% - Las Vegas, Washington
Low rates:
47% - San Francisco, Chicago
55% - Pittsburgh
56% - Dallas
57% - Tennessee
In the tweets above, I examined team tendencies on first downs and in the first half -- the thought process behind using this subset was that it gives a true representation of what the teams would like to do. What was their plan? For teams like the Bills and the Commanders, it was clear that the plan was to pass as often as possible. For the 49ers and Bears, the opposite was true.
Another way to get an idea of a team's intention is to look at their dropback rate when the game was still close.
Dropback rate in neutral situations (score within six points) through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
Above average (61%)
79% - Cincinnati
77% - Buffalo
74% - Minnesota
71% - Arizona
69% - Baltimore, NY Jets
Low rates:
43% - Chicago
52% - Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, San Francisco
54% - Philly
So, we have an idea of which teams really want to pass the ball at a high rate. Which teams were intentional about pushing the ball down the field? And which teams were the least aggressive?
% of passes thru 3 weeks that traveled 15+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
Above average (19%)
33% - Justin Fields
29% - Mac Jones
28% - Jameis Winston
26% - Mitch Trubisky, Lamar Jackson
Low rates:
12% - Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissett, Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray
13% - Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence
I believe it is important to examine both of these average depth of target stats. One or two long heaves (which often have a very low probability of resulting in a reception) can throw off aDOT data in a significant way, especially when we are examining a small sample.
Highest average depth of target through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
11.5 yards - Jameis Winston
10.8 - Lamar Jackson
10.4 - Marcus Mariota
10.3 - Mac Jones
9.7 - Justin Fields
9.2 - Mitch Trubisky
Lowest:
5.4 - Aaron Rodgers
5.9 - Daniel Jones
6.0 - Kyler Murray
6.3 - Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders. Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
The following teams stand out as having provided the most or fewest air yards.
These offenses have provided the most air yardage through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
1,294 yards - New Orleans
1,149 - NY Jets
1,032 - Washington
986 - New England
952 - Detroit
937 - Las Vegas
927 - Baltimore
And the fewest:
426 - Chicago
526 - Green Bay
531 - Carolina
563 - Cleveland
A key precursor to accumulating air yardage -- actually running down the field. Displayed below are the players whose average route depth (the distance at which the initial cut on their route took place on average) stood out the most.
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders! Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
TE average route depth standouts, through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
High:
8.6 yards - Juwan Johnson
8.2 - Hunter Henry
7.9 - Dallas Goedert
7.8 - Kyle Pitts
Low:
3.9 - Jonnu Smith
4.1 - Mike Gesicki
4.4 - Cole Kmet
4.9 - Robert Tonyan, George Kittle
TE average depth of target standouts through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
High:
15.7 yards - Kyle Pitts
12.1 - Mark Andrews
10.8 - Logan Thomas, Juwan Johnson
10.4 - Darren Waller
Low:
2.1 - Tyler Conklin
2.2 - George Kittle
2.5 - Robert Tonyan
2.7 - Albert O
3.8 - Dawson Knox
Week 3 Air Yardage Leaders at TE:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
165 - Kyle Pitts
152 - Mark Andrews
74 - Gerald Everett
67 - Pat Freiermuth
59 - Zach Ertz
56 - Travis Kelce
52 - Cole Kmet
49 - Darren Waller
In addition to knowing which players drew massive air yardage totals, it is important to be familiar with air yardage shares. The rate version of this stat can help identify players who might break out if their offensive environment improves and produces more air yards in the future.
TE air yardage share leaders through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
41% - Mark Andrews
36% - Kyle Pitts
26% - Travis Kelce
21% - Darren Waller
19% - Pat Freiermuth
17% - Gerald Everett, Zach Ertz
15% - Logan Thomas
14% - Harrison Bryant, Irv Smith
12% - Cole Kmet, TJ Hock
It is rough out here
Speaking of rate stats, it's about time that we got to the oh-so-important target share leaderboard.
Week 3 TE target share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
48% - Mark Andrews
42% - Kyle Pitts
32% - David Njoku
24% - Travis Kelce
21% - Robert Tonyan
19% - Cole Kmet
18% - Zach Ertz
17% - George Kittle, Tyler Conklin
16% - Irv Smith, Tyler Higbee
15% - Gerald Everett, Cameron Brate
TE target share leaders through three weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2022
37% - Mark Andrews
24% - Tyler Higbee, Kyle Pitts
23% - Travis Kelce
21% - Pat Freiermuth
18% - David Njoku, Zach Ertz
17% - TJ Hockenson, Gerlad Everett
16% - Darren Waller, Tyler Conklin
15% - Dallas Goedert, Robert Tonyan
Come dig into the full data on Week 3 TE usage rates with us.
Which tight end's route involvement indicates that better days are ahead? And which tight end is officially a fine drop in Fantasy now that we have confirmation of his role? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Wide Receiver Usage Report, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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Jacob Gibbs
