Fantasy Football Week 17: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including a bounce-back for Trey McBride

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 17 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player who Gibbs has his eye on: Trey McBride in a bounce-back spot against a susceptible Eagles secondary. "As was outlined in this space prior to Week 16, McBride's matchup against Chicago was a really difficult one. Nothing changed from a volume perspective -- McBride still registered a team-high 29% first-read target rate. I'm expecting a bounce back in Week 17," Gibbs said. "With more slot work available to him, McBride would seem to be perfectly positioned while working against the weakness of Philly's defense over the middle area of the field."

You NEED to see Gibbs' full analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 17? And which under-the-radar running back could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.

Unless stated otherwise, all data referenced in this article comes from TruMedia or FantasyPoints.com. TruMedia is not publicly available, but you can check out the FP Data Suite here. FantasyPoints CEO Scott Barrett joined Heath Cummings and me on Fantasy Football Today for a discussion about all of the tools that the Data Suite has to offer, if you're curious!

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 17.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions

Over/Under -- 53.5 points (opened at 50.5)

Cowboys (29.5 points) -- Minnesota's flip-flop in offensive philosophy from Week 15 to Week 16 exemplifies exactly how Detroit's defense impacts opponents. Just one week after feeding Ty Chandler 23 rush attempts, the Vikings only handed the ball off to Chandler eight times against the Lions. Over the past five games, none of Detroit's opponents have given a running back 15+ rushes. On the year, the Lions have the ninth-highest situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate (59.3%), and over the five-game stretch that I just referenced, that rate is up to 64.7%. Austin Ekeler's 67 rushing yards in Week 10 is the highest single-game mark put up by any running back against Detroit's defense.

Meanwhile, Nick Mullens threw for 411 yards in Week 16. The Lions have surrendered the eighth-most Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have been particularly susceptible to downfield passing. This could be a matchup where Brandin Cooks pops up for a big game, but CeeDee Lamb is of course the most likely candidate to take advantage of this secondary.

Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions have been able to disrupt opposing passing games by generating pressure at the league's fourth-highest rate, but Dak Prescott has been excellent against pressure. He and Geno Smith are the only quarterbacks with a single-digit off-target rate when pressured.

Lions (24 points) -- The Cowboys defense is one of just three with a higher pressure rate than the Lions. Dallas ranks first in pressure rate, and Jared Goff actually ranks second behind only Sam Howell (11) with eight interceptions against pressure in 2023. His off-target rate when pressured is slightly worse than league average, while his turnover-worthy throw rate vs. pressure is in the bottom-third of the league, so there is something here, but his actual interception total is probably a bit random.

When Goff has not been pressured, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been targeted on 35% of his routes. That rate plummets to 15% when his QB is under pressure. Goff's most-targeted players (on a per-route basis) vs. pressure are his running backs and Sam LaPorta.

Another potential indicator pointing in LaPorta's direction:

Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 44)

Colts (23.5 points) -- This Raiders defense has not been one to attack for Fantasy purposes lately.

In his first game back, Jonathan Taylor handled 86% of the team's RB rush attempts, played 60% of the offensive snaps, and ran a route on 41% of Gardner Minshew's dropbacks. According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite's expected points model, Taylor's usage ranked him as the expected Fantasy RB10 in Week 16. The way to attack this Vegas defense has been on the ground; the opportunity is certainly there for a big game from Taylor, even though his efficiency has left a lot to be desired this season.

Raiders (20 points) -- No defense uses Cover-3 more than the Gus Bradley-led Colts. Davante Adams has a 34% target per route run rate vs. Cover-3, which trails only Tyreek Hill. When Aidan O'Connell has been his QB, Adams has been targeted on 37% of his routes vs. Cover-3. Jakobi Meyers has been targeted on only 6 of 64 routes run vs. Cover-3 with O'Connell at QB.

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

Over/Under -- 38 points (opened at 37.5)

Bears (20.5 points) -- The Falcons have allowed the eighth-fewest Fantasy points per dropback when using single-high safety coverage but the eighth-most when using two-high safeties. Though, strangely, Atlanta uses two-high safeties at the seventh-highest rate. The strength of this defense is the cornerback play, so it came as no surprise to find that when relying on the corner backs (single-high coverage schemes), the Falcons have been one of the most efficient defenses in the league.

Predictably, D.J. Moore's numbers are significantly better when he has faced single-high safety coverage. Justin Fields ranks 26th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating vs. two-high safeties and is 17th against single-high. Cole Kmet is the player who has seen a notable boost against two-high safeties, which makes sense as the team's preferred option to work the middle of the field.

Falcons (17.5 points) -- Bijan Robinson was the RB3 in the FantasyPoints Data Suite's expected Fantasy points model in Week 16. That was thanks in large part to a season-high 10 targets, which was backed by a season-high 91% route participation rate. No defense has allowed more receiving Fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Bears.

Amari Cooper is the only receiver who has topped 80 receiving yards against this Bears defense since Mike Evans went for 171 in Week 2. Chicago has faced Amon-Ra St. Brown (twice), Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Chris Olave, and Terry McLaurin during that time.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Over/Under -- 38 points (opened at 39.5)

Jags (22.25 points) -- The Panthers have not had an opponent finish a game with 30+ pass attempts in any of the past five games. Only one of Carolina's past 12 opposing quarterbacks has finished with more than 35 attempts. The past two offenses to face the Panthers each finished with more rush attempts than pass attempts.

It has been roughly one month since Travis Etienne rushed for more than 60 yards in a game and two months since his last 80+ rushing yard performance, so he's far from a lock to take advantage of this matchup. To be fair to Etienne, only one of Jacksonville's past seven opponents rank in the bottom-half of the league in rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs.

I have no idea what type of volume we can expect from Jacksonville's passing game in this game, but Calvin Ridley has been drawing elite WR1-type volume since Christian Kirk's injury. On the year, Ridley's target per route run rate is up from 18% while sharing the field with Kirk to 25% with Kirk sidelined.

Panthers (15.75 points) -- Jacksonville's opponent situation-neutral pass rate (60.4%) is the seventh-highest, and no team has more opponent RB targets and receptions than the Jags. This could be a good matchup for Chuba Hubbard to pile up additional targets, although Miles Sanders ran more routes than Hubbard in Week 16.

After several encouraging underlying volume data points that resulted in little-to-no production, Jonathan Mingo was targeted only once in Week 16. Instead, D.J. Chark emerged from nowhere to lead the Panthers with 8 targets, 98 receiving yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Chark registered a 23% first-read target rate, which trailed only Adam Thielen (27%). In a matchup against a Jaguars secondary that has been susceptible to the deep ball, against a defense that is likely to facilitate more Carolina passing volume than usual, Chark has some sneaky appeal for Week 17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 41.5)

Buccaneers (22.5 points) -- The Saints have still fared reasonably well against some tough opposing wide receivers while playing without Marshon Lattimore -- until Week 16, at least. Lattimore has missed Weeks 12-16, and displayed below are the finishes for opposing WR1's against New Orleans during that time.

Week 12 -- Drake London (5-91 receiving on 7 targets)
Week 13 -- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2-49-1 on 6 targets)
Week 14 -- Adam Thielen (5-74 on 7 targets)
Week 15 -- Giants
Week 16 -- Puka Nacua (9-164-1 on 11 targets)

The only real threat to push the ball vertically against this aggressive Saints press coverage unit during the Lattimore-less weeks was Matthew Stafford and Nacua, and they connected for several splash plays. Mike Evans brings similar upside in Week 17.

Chris Godwin is also intriguing as an overlooked and underpriced DFS option. After recording 23 straight games without 100+ air yards, Godwin reached that mark in both Weeks 14 and 15. In Week 16, Godwin had 96 air yards. He's being used down the field more and brings more Fantasy upside than he has in quite some time as a result.

Saints (20 points) -- Prior to Week 16, Alvin Kamara's snap rate had dropped in five consecutive games. His snap rate rose from 52% in Week 15 to 74% in Week 16. The Saints only produced 58 offensive plays (66 is the season-long average for New Orleans), so Kamara's overall volume was down, but his underlying Week 16 usage rates were encouraging.

Just as Tampa Bay's defense finally got both cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Devin White back on the field, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Lavonte David appear set to miss Week 17's game against the Saints.

After a three-game skid in which he failed to reach a target share above 22% from Weeks 4-6, Chris Olave has hit that mark in eight straight games. During that time, Olave's 28.7% target per route run rate ranks eighth among 90 qualified receivers. Olave has 110+ receiving yards in three of his past four games and hasn't finished with fewer than 12 PPR points since Week 8. The early stages of the season were frustrating for Olave believers, but he's smoothed things out and assumed his ascending superstar trajectory.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under -- 48 points (opened at 47)

Eagles (29.25 points) -- Two tendencies stick out to me from Arizona's defensive data.

1. Arizona blitzes only 21.6% of the time, the NFL's fourth-lowest rate.

2. The Cardinals use Cover-4 at a league-high 31% rate. The NFL average is 15%.

Given that the league average rate is just 15%, I included Philly's 2022 data to give myself a larger sample size. Across the 2022-23 seasons, DeVonta Smith has 209 routes run vs. Cover-4, while A.J. Brown's sample is 198 routes. Smith has produced 545 receiving yards to Brown's 357 within that subset. Smith's target per route run rate has risen vs. Cover-4, while Brown's has dropped and Dallas Goedert's has dropped rather dramatically (albeit, on only a 118-route sample size). 

Arizona's low blitz rate also would seem to be a negative matchup factor for Brown. When Hurts has been blitzed over the past two seasons, Brown has registered a 31% target per route run rate with a 2.90 yard per route run rate. When Hurts hasn't been blitzed, Brown's rates fall to 25% and 2.42. Smith's rate have been mostly unaffected by the blitz, while Goedert's rates have risen slightly when Hurts has not been blitzed.

Cardinals (18.75 points) -- No defense has allowed more Fantasy points to opposing receivers than Philly's, but with Marquise Brown still not practicing, Arizona might not have any wide receivers to take advantage of this matchup. It's worth noting that Trey McBride's percentage of snaps aligned in-line at the tight end position has been shrinking all season and hit a season-low 37% rate in Week 16. With more slot work available to him, McBride would seem to be perfectly positioned to bounce back while working against the weakness of Philly's defense over the middle area of the field.

As was outlined in this space prior to Week 16, McBride's matchup against Chicago was a really difficult one. Nothing changed from a volume perspective -- McBride still registered a team-high 29% first-read target rate. I'm expecting a bounce back in Week 17.

James Conner has quietly been really good in 2023, and the Eagles are really banged-up at linebacker. Nicholas Morrow's potential return could help, but I still view this as a neutral matchup rather than the clear-cut avoid that Philly's run defense appeared to be in the early stages of the season.

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under -- 49.5 points (opened at 42)

Commanders (18.25 points) -- The target distribution has been spread evenly among Terry McLaurin (23%), Curtis Samuel (18%), and Jahan Dotson (18%) during Jacoby Brissett's 25 dropbacks, while 122 of 224 receiving yards have gone to McLaurin.

Only the Lions (58 yards) have allowed fewer rushing yards per game to opposing running backs than San Francisco (65), and only the Commanders have a higher opponent situation-neutral pass rate than the Niners. It's unlikely that we'll see much rushing volume for Washington in this game.

49ers (31.25 points) -- In the two games without linebacker Jamin Davis, Washington's defense has been lit up by opposing running backs. Breece Hall followed up Kyren Williams' 30-point performance with 43.1 DraftKings points. This Washington defense is no longer just a pass funnel -- opposing offenses can put up video game numbers on the ground as well.

I tweeted this stat about Washington's lack of pressure prior to their Week 16 game. The Commanders had a 27.5% pressure rate in Week 16.

Brock Purdy has been the NFL's best QB when not pressured. All three of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle have seen their per-route data skyrocket when Purdy has not been pressured.

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 45)

Giants (19.5 points) -- Darren Waller's route participation rose from 48% in Week 15 to 76% in his second game back from an extended absence. On the year, Waller has 189 routes run without Tyrod Taylor at QB and 108 routes with Taylor. In the split without Taylor, Waller has a 20% target per route run rate and 1.31 yard per route run rate. With Taylor at QB, Waller has a 22% target per route run rate and 1.93 yards per route run.

The Rams have allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Rams (25 points) -- When both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have been on the field together and Matthew Stafford has been blitzed (90 dropbacks), Kupp has a 31% target per route run rate and Nacua's rate is at 22%. Kupp has produced 176 receiving yards on his 28 targets within that subset, while Nacua has 223 yards on 20 targets. I bring up this specific set of splits because the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate (45%) in the NFL.

While Wink Martindale's defense blitzes a ton, the Giants actually only rank 29th in pressure rate. Stafford has been bothered by the blitz, but I think that he could find success against New York blitzes that don't actually get to the QB all that often.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Over/Under -- 40.5 points (opened at 45.5)

Bills (26.75 points) -- The Patriots defense has not allowed a rusher to top 40 yards on the ground in any of the past four games, and Raheem Mostert (121 rushing yards in Week 2) is the only back to top 80 yards against this rush defense all year. New England has allowed the second-fewest yards per rush (3.3) to opposing running backs on the year. Specifically against man/gap schemed rushes, no team has a lower yards per rush allowed (3.16) than the Pats. The Bills use man/gap scheme rushes at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and no running back has more man/gap rushing yards than James Cook.

It will be interesting to see how Buffalo attacks this game offensively. The Bills have leaned heavily on the ground game recently, but New England's run defense has been nearly impenetrable.

With the return of Dawson Knox coinciding with a heavy emphasis on the run game in recent weeks, we've seen Dalton Kincaid's playing time and usage fall off of a cliff. Kincaid's Week 15 snap rate (49.2%) tied a season-low, and he then posted a 40.4% snap rate in Week 16. Kincaid has finished with just 13 and 12 routes run in his past two games. He has four total targets and 10 total air yards over his past two games.

Patriots (13.75 points) -- The Bills have the fourth-highest opponent running back target rate and the fifth most receiving yards allowed to the RB position. Buffalo also has the sixth-highest opponent running back average yards per rush allowed and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate on running back rush attempts.

Ezekiel Elliott leads the Patriots with 14 receptions over the past two weeks. No other Patriot player even has that many targets during that time. Since taking over New England's backfield in Week 14, Elliott has a higher snap rate (86%) than any RB other than Christian McCaffrey. He has a higher target total (25) during that time than any RB other than Breece Hall. Only Kyren Williams and Rachaad White have more total opportunities than Elliott (70) during that three-game stretch. Zeke actually has more PPR points than Williams over the past three games -- McCaffrey, Hall, White, James Cook, and Jahmyr Gibbs are the only higher scoring Fantasy RB's during that time.

Demario Douglas saw his route participation rise from 71% in his first game back to 94% in Week 16, and his receiving volume followed. Douglas led the team with a 28% first-read target rate in Week 16 and finished with a 26% target share, 38% air yardage share, and 12.4 PPR points.

The Bills have the league's lowest opponent average depth of target thanks to an "umbrella" zone coverage strategy that keeps everything in front of their safeties. Buffalo's opponent slot target rate is the fifth-highest, and we should expect to see a lot of catch-and-run opportunities for Douglas in this matchup.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 43)

Texans (24.5 points) -- We have a 130-route sample size of Nico Collins playing with C.J. Stroud on the field and Tank Dell off of the field. Within that subset, Collins' numbers paint him as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.

If Collins is healthy enough to suit up for this favorable matchup against Tennessee, he will carry one of the highest projections of any wide receiver.

Titans (19 points) -- The Texans have allowed only 3.1 yards per rush to opposing running backs, the lowest rate in the NFL. This is the defense that held Derrick Henry to 10 scrimmage yards on 20 touches just two weeks ago.

This is also not a favorable matchup for DeAndre Hopkins, as the Texans bring the sixth-lowest single-high safety rate and ninth-lowest Cover-3 rate. As we've tracked in this space all year, Hopkins has really only been usable for Fantasy purposes when facing Cover-3-heavy defenses.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins

Over/Under -- 47 points (opened at 46.5)

Ravens (25 points) -- Zay Flowers was invisible in an easy Week 15 win over the Jags but has target totals of 8, 10, and 13 in the other games following the injury to Mark Andrews.

Isaiah Likely is second on the team with an 18% target share in the four games following the Andrews injury. He's scored at least eight PPR points in every game and is again a decent streaming option in a potential shootout.

Gus Edwards was, of course, the back who found the end zone in Week 16. All other usage metrics favored Justice Hill.

Week 16 rush attempts:

10 -- Hill
9 -- Edwards

Week 16 snap rate:

62% -- Hill
43% -- Edwards

Week 16 routes run:

21 -- Hill
11 -- Edwards

Dolphins (22 points) -- Raheem Mostert barely played in the second half of Week 16's win over the Cowboys, and Jeff Wilson ended up splitting work nearly evenly with De'Von Achane in Mostert's absence. Achane registered an 87% second-half route participation rate, so he's clearly the preference on passing downs. Wilson saw four rush attempts to Achane's five in the second half.

Beyond that, I'm not sure what value I can add in regards to this matchup. The Ravens are possibly the NFL's most adaptable week-to-week defensive scheme, and there's little predictability to what their approach will be. On top of that, the status of Mostert (ankle/knee) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle/shin) is unknown.

I guess I can offer you this -- Tyreek Hill has an absolutely absurd 48% target per route run rate and 5.15 yard per route run rate on 120 routes run without Waddle on the field. I'm starting Hill in the championship matchups where I roster him.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 45)

Seahawks (22 points) -- Since losing linebackers Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander in Week 10, the Steelers have a 13% missed tackle rate on RB rush attempts. That rate was at 9% prior to Week 10.

Pittsburgh's opponent RB schedule during that time makes the rise in missed tackle rate even more notable, because the recent running backs to face the Steelers are not exactly elusive. A.J. Dillon turned nine rush attempts into 70 yards in Week 10. James Conner rushed for 105 yards and two scores in his return to Pittsburgh. Ezekiel Elliott piled up 140 scrimmage yards against this defense, which was followed up by 147 rushing yards from the Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson combo in Week 15. The Steelers did manage to corral Joe Mixon in two matchups, and the Browns found little success on the ground against Pittsburgh, but this should be a positive matchup for Kenneth Walker on the ground.

Tee Higgins went nuts against the Steelers in Week 16, so I decided to check out Joey Porter Jr.'s data to see how much of Higgins' production came against him. Pittsburgh's rookie cornerback has prolific coverage data, allowing only a 42% catch rate (lowest in the NFL among qualified corners) and being targeted at one of the lowest per-route rates in coverage. TruMedia only credited Porter with one catch allowed for 15 yards in Week 16. That seemed suspect, so I watched all of Higgins' catches.

All five of his catches came against zone coverage, and Porter only stayed attached to Higgins after an initial press at the line on one of those catches. The Steelers use one of the most man-heavy coverage schemes, only five teams use less zone coverage.

What does all of this mean for Seattle? Well, by all indications, Porter remains one of the best cover corners in the NFL. Nothing about Higgins' huge Week 16 seems to negate that, and 80 of his receiving yards came on one play that had nothing to do with Porter.

Higgins is the only receiver to put up a big game against this defense since Porter's installment as a full-time player other than Puka Nacua back in Week 7. I don't view this as a positive matchup for any of the Seahawks receivers, but it's worth noting that the two receivers who have performed well against this defense both profile similarly to DK Metcalf. Also noteworthy -- the Steelers use single-high safety coverage schemes at the fifth-highest rate (61%) and Metcalf has seen a huge boost in his yard per route run production when facing single-high coverage -- up from 1.75 vs. two-high to 2.75 vs. one-high.

Target per route run rate vs. two-high safeties:

23% -- Tyler Lockett
22% -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
16% -- Metcalf

Target per route run rate vs. one-high safety:

30% -- Metcalf
24% -- Lockett
21% -- Smith-Njigba

Steelers (19 points) -- The Seahawks use press coverage at the sixth-highest rate (66%) and are third in Cover-3 rate (46%). Both tendencies typically boost production for true X-receiver types, and George Pickens is exactly that. Pickens was dominant against press coverage at the collegiate level, and he immediately became one of the NFL's best press coverage beaters upon his arrival. Across the 2022-23 seasons, only Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Mike Williams have a higher yard per route run rate vs. press than Pickens. Against Cover-3, Pickens ranks 13th among 72 qualified receivers in yards per route run in 2023.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 50.5)

Chiefs (25.5 points) -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire played 86% of the snaps following Isiah Pacheco's Week 16 concussion. With Pacheco likely to miss Week 17's game and Jerick McKinnon on IR, Edwards-Helaire may fill an every-down role against a Bengals defense that has the second-highest missed tackle rate and seventh-most yards per rush allowed on opposing RB attempts. 

Bengals (18.5 points) -- The Chiefs rank last in single-high safety coverage (34%) use defensively and are one of just two teams with a rate below 40%. Kansas City invites opposing passing games to beat their defense with short passing, and that's Jake Browning's game. Tee Higgins has been targeted at a notably lower per-route rate (25% vs. single-high and 18% vs. two-high) when facing two-high safeties, but he was highly productive against zone coverage in Week 16. Ja'Marr Chase's rate drops from 27% vs. single-high to 24% vs. two-high, but he actually has a higher yard per route run rate vs. two-high coverage. Schematically, this would present as a neutral matchup for Chase, but it is a brutal one from a talent perspective. The list of receivers L'Jarius Sneed and the Chiefs have shut down is a long one. Davante Adams added his name with a one-catch and four-yard performance on six targets in Week 16.

If Sneed (calf) misses Week 17's game, I'd provide a matchup boost for the Cincinnati receivers.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers 

Over/Under -- 36.5 points (opened at 38)

Broncos (19.75 points) -- Even with the news that Jarrett Stidham will start in Week 17, the Broncos carry a decent implied team total (19.75 points). Denver's opening point total was 20.5 points, so the removal of Russell Wilson did not impact Denver's expectations much.

Courtland Sutton only ran two routes before suffering a concussion in Week 16, and still Marvin Mims ranked fourth among Denver's receivers in route participation (52%). The rookie led Denver's offense in receiving yards (63), and only Jaleel McLaughlin had more scrimmage yards (67).

Jerry Jeudy's 2023 sample size without Sutton on the field is not large (48 routes), but his data within that split is not any good. Jeudy has taken a massive step backward in 2023 and has offered no encouraging data points. His highest single-game receiving yardage total (81) and PPR point output (13.1) came back in Week 3. The Chargers defense has been among the most inviting matchups available to opposing pass-catchers; maybe in combination with a QB change, Jeudy will come to life in Week 16. I wish that we had any compelling data to suggest some sort of change might be coming.

Javonte Williams found the end zone in Week 16, but he also failed to top 30 rushing yards for the second-straight game and registered his lowest snap rate (39%) since Week 6. I'd rather avoid the entire offense, even in a positive matchup.

Chargers (16.75 points) -- L.A. got second-year running back Isaiah Spiller heavily involved in the blowout loss to the Raiders in Week 15, but Austin Ekeler returned to dominating the rushing share in a more competitive Week 16 game. There's no predictability to what might happen in this Week 17 matchup between two dysfunctional franchises, but Ekeler should be able to turn in a decent Fantasy point total if he sees last week's usage against Denver's league-worst rushing defense.

The player who I'm the most intrigued by from the L.A. side of things is Gerald Everett. Prior to Week 16, Everett had not recorded a route participation rate above 70% in a single 2023 game. He was involved as a route runner on 82% of L.A.'s Week 16 dropbacks, and the result was a season-high seven catches. Everett has eight targets in each of the past three games and could put up a big yardage total against Denver's shoddy tackling. Icing on the cake -- no team has allowed more Fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Broncos.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 44.5)

Vikings (22.75 points) -- Ty Chandler's usage fell off in Week 16, but I believe that had more to do with the matchup against Detroit's pass-funnel defense than Alexander Mattison's return. Mattison only played eight percent of the snaps in Week 16.

In Week 17, Chandler's offense will be led by fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall into battle against a Packers defense that has the second-highest opponent situation-neutral rush rate (48.7%). I'd expect a heavy dose of the ground game in this matchup.

Packers (21.75 points) -- Dontayvion Wicks (chest/ankle) ran only 13 routes before leaving injured in Week 16. Neither Wicks or Christian Watson practiced on Thursday, but Jayden Reed was back at practice. Reed has been by far the most-targeted player when Jordan Love has been blitzed, so he has a chance to go for a huge game against the most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL if able to return to the field in Week 17.

Minnesota's rush defense is not an inviting matchup, allowing only 3.6 yards per rush (fifth-lowest) to opposing backs. However, it's possible that this is actually a decent schematic fit for Aaron Jones. Zone-schemed rushes account for 64% (ninth-highest among qualified backs) of his total rushes, and the Vikings have been notably worse against zone rushing. The Vikings have the NFL's second-lowest opponent yards per rush allowed (3.4) on man/gap-concept runs, but their 4.0 yards per rush allowed on zone rushes ranks middle-of-the-pack. Jones put together his best rushing performance (127 yards on 21 attempts) against the Panthers in Week 16, so maybe he's healthy and ready to finish his season strong.

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