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Fantasy Football Week 14 value watch: Elijah Moore among risers, plus fallers to know based on key usage metrics
Get updated on everything you need to know about Week 14 from one of the nation's top Fantasy experts
We learn new information on a weekly basis as the ever-changing Fantasy landscape reshapes itself. There are many specific usage stats that affect a player's Fantasy projection, and outside of a few players, we see those underlying usage metrics fluctuate throughout the course of a season.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will examine all of this new information and provide a data-driven deep dive into Sunday's games to offer a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
Here, we'll look at the leaderboards in several key metrics around player usage, then examine whose stock is rising or falling after the weekend's action. This week, that includes Jets receiver Elijah Moore.
"Year 2 has been a tumultuous one for Elijah Moore," Gibbs said. "Week 14 provided Moore with his first encouraging data point in a very long time. The last time that New York's second-year wideout recorded more than two receptions in a game was back in Week 4. With Corey Davis suffering a Week 14 concussion, Moore stepped into a more prominent role and caught 6 of 10 targets for 60 yards."
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Week 14 Leaders -- Running Back
Snap rate
Week 14 RB snap rate leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
91% - Travis Homer
86% - Dalvin Cook
83% - Josh Jacobs
76% - Derrick Henry
75% - Travis Etienne
74% - Raheem Mostert
68% - CMC, Miles Sanders
61% - Nick Chubb
59% - Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler
58% - Tony Pollard
57% - Jerick McKinnon, Najee Harris
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the running back position than snap rate.
Route involvement rate
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above ran a route on at least half of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
RB route involvement rate leaders Week 14
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
86% - Christian McCaffrey
70% - Raheem Mostert
65% - Josh Jacobs
64% - Travis Homer
60% - Michael Carter, Tony Pollard
58% - Travis Etienne
55% - Jerick McKinnon
54% - Leonard Fournette
50% - Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb
Red zone usage
Week 14 RB red zone snap rates
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
100% - Travis Homer, Dalvin Cook
91% - Josh Jacobs
90% - Derrick Henry
86% - Travis Etienne, Najee Harris
83% - Christian McCaffrey
80% - Jerick McKinnon, Cam Akers
75% - Kareem Hunt
74% - Austin Ekeler
67% - Miles Sanders, Rachaad White
Red zone snap rate over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
97% - Dalvin Cook
93% - Jonathan Taylor, Jeff Wilson
87% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Samaje Perine
85% - Josh Jacobs
84% - David Montgomery
83% - Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson
82% - Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey
78% - Cordarrelle Patterson
Week 14 red zone touch (rush+rec) count:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
8 - Ezekiel Elliott
7 - Austin Ekeler
5 - Derrick Henry, D'Onta Foreman, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard
4 - Dameon Pierce
3 - Kareem Hunt, Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne, Dalvin Cook, Travis Homer, Chuba Hubbard
These RBs have the highest percentage of their team's total red zone touches (rush+rec) over the past month
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
65% - Jonathan Taylor
63% - Aaron Jones
60% - Josh Jacobs
52% - Dalvin Cook
50% - Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery
47% - Ezekiel Elliott
45% - James Conner, Bam Knight
Another fun RB stat that I look at on a weekly basis is tackles avoided. Some backs are able to mitigate the damage while playing behind porous offensive lines by consistently making would-be tacklers miss and creating extra yards after contact. Here's who stands out:
Avoided tackle rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
(% of rushes where a tackle was avoided)
37% - Eno Benjamin
36% - Austin Ekeler, Dameon Pierce
35% - Nick Chubb
34% - Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery
32% - Samaje Perine
31% - D'Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson
30% - Kenneth Walker, James Cook
And here's who stands out in terms of creating explosive plays:
Explosive rush (10+ yards) rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 6, 2022
28% - Lamar Jackson
21% - Justin Fields
18% - Tony Pollard
16% - Jalen Hurts, Nick Chubb
15% - Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenneth Walker
14% - Josh Jacobs, Raheem Mostert, Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt
13% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis ETN
Week 14 Leaders -- Wide Receiver
Target per route run rate - past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
(min 250 routes)
32% - Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown
31% - Davante Adams
30% - Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp
28% - Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs
27% - Alvin Kamara, CMC, DK Metcalf, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave, Drake London
Yards per route run - past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
(min 250 routes)
3.23- Tyreek Hill
2.76 - Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.72 - Cooper Kupp
2.70 - Davante Adams
2.57 - AJ Brown
2.47 - Ja'Marr Chase
2.46 - Chris Olave
2.38 - Stefon Diggs
2.33 - Jaylen Waddle
2.21 - Tee Higgins
Highest 'off-target' rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
30% - Kyle Pitts
24% - DJ Moore
23% - Jahan Dotson
22% - Marvin Jones
21% - Darnell Mooney
20% - Elijah Moore, Nico Collins
19% - Drake London
18% - Robbie Anderson
16% - Jerry Jeudy
15% - Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Amari Cooper
Season-long air yardage share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
45% - DJ Moore
42% - Justin Jefferson
41% - CeeDee Lamb
40% - AJ Brown, Davante Adams
39% - Amari Cooper
38% - Chris Olave, Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin
37% - DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs
34% - Tyler Lockett, Darnell Mooney
33% - Mark Andrews
Week 14 air yardage leaders at WR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
230 - Justin Jefferson
178 - Donovan Peoples-Jones
160 - DK Metcalf
152 - Tyreek Hill
134 - Davante Adams
133 - Diontae Johnson
129 - Zay Jones
119 - Ja'Marr Chase
116 - Tutu Atwell
107 - Noah Brown
104 - Elijah Moore
In addition to knowing which players drew massive air yardage totals, it is important to be familiar with air yardage shares. The rate version of this stat can help identify players who might break out if their offensive environment improves and produces more air yards in the future.
Week 14 air yardage share leaders at WR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
71% - Davante Adams
61% - Donovan Peoples-Jones
57% - Chris Moore
52% - Ja'Marr Chase
51% - Tyreek Hill
50% - Justin Jefferson
48% - Demarcus Robinson
43% - Zay Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, Brandon Aiyuk
41% - DK Metcalf
40% - Tutu Atwell
Speaking of rate stats, it's about time that we got to the oh-so-important target share leaderboard.
Week 14 target share leaders at WR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
47% - Ja'Marr Chase
46% - Chris Moore
42% - Tyreek Hill
38% - Justin Jefferson
37% - Davante Adams
35% - Demarcus Robinson
31% - Donovan Peoples-Jones
29% - Keenan Allen, Zay Jones
28% - DK Metcalf, Richie James
27% - Tutu Atwell
Those who produce well in both metrics get to be part of the highly exclusive 30-30 club.
Week 14
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
30-30 club
(L - TGT share)
(R - Air yardage share)
47% - Ja'Marr Chase - 52%
46% - Chris Moore - 57%
42% - Tyreek Hill - 51%
38% - Justin Jefferson - 50%
37% - Davante Adams - 71%
35% - Demarcus Robinson - 48%
31% - Donovan Peoples-Jones - 61%
30% - Nelson Agholor - 55%
Understanding which players are demanding the most volume is important, but it's also worth remembering that player volume starts at a team level. Diontae Johnson's massive volume rates with little-to-no actual production exemplifies this fact perfectly.
So, which teams were intentional about pushing the ball down the field? And which teams were the least aggressive?
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders. Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
The following teams stand out as having provided the most or fewest air yards.
These teams have provided the most air yardage per game over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 7, 2022
362 - Miami
321 - Las Vegas
299 - Tampa
293 - Buffalo
291 - Minnesota
284 - Cleveland
273 - Denver
And the fewest:
142 - Carolina
185 - Detroit
192 - Chicago
196 - Indianapolis
198 - San Fran
204 - NYG
'Off-target' rates
These quarterbacks stand out as the most or least accurate passers in 2022.
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 10+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
28% - Davis Mills
26% - Taylor Heinecke, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
24% - Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson
Lowest:
12% - Josh Allen, Andy Dalton
13% - Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa
These quarterbacks have been the most or least accurate on short attempts.
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 10 or fewer air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
12% - Marcus Mariota, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields
11% - Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinecke
9% - Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa
Lowest:
4% - Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow
5% - Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith
And these quarterbacks stand out on downfield throws.
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 10+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
28% - Davis Mills
26% - Taylor Heinecke, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
24% - Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson
Lowest:
12% - Josh Allen, Andy Dalton
13% - Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 20+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
50% - Zach Wilson
49% - Marcus Mariota
44% - Lamar Jackson
40% - Justin Fields, Taylor Heinecke
37% - Jared Goff
36% - Derek Carr
Lowest:
17% - Geno Smith
18% - Josh Allen
20% - Justin Herbert
21% - Tom Brady
Week 14 Leaders -- Tight End
Week 14 target share leaders at TE:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
36% - Evan Engram
35% - Mark Andrews
26% - Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox
23% - David Nkoku, George Kittle
21% - Travis Kelce
20% - TJ Hockenson
19% - Greg Dulcich, Pat Freiermuth
18% - Tyler Conklin
17% - Gerald Everett
16% - Chig Okwonkwo
Week 14 TE air yardage share leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
38% - Greg Dulcich
34% - Travis Kelce
32% - Dalton Schultz
29% - Dawson Knox, Evan Engram
25% - Mark Andrews
15% - Pat Freiermuth
14% - TJ Hockenson, Tyler Conklin
13% - George Kittle, Mike Gesicki
12% - Gerald Everett
11% - David Njoku
Route involvement rate -- the percentage of a team's routes on which a player runs a route.
Week 14 TE route involvement leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
96% - George Kittle, Foster Moreau, Mark Andrews
94% - David Njoku, Dawson Knox
91% - TJ Hockenson
88% - Dalton Schultz
84% - Evan Engram
82% - Travis Kelce
79% - Daniel Bellinger
77% - Tyler Conklin
74% - Greg Dulcich
To draw a target, a tight end must first be running a route. The players above ran a route on the highest percentage of their team's dropbacks.
Target per route run rate
Target share isn't the only stat that captures a player's ability to demand targets -- target per route run rate is another important metric. With more route-running opportunities, these players could be highly productive in Fantasy.
Garrett Wilson without Zach Wilson would rank 2nd in target per route run rate and 9th in yard per route run rate among this group:https://t.co/AMmneIE5IK
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 6, 2022
I tweet about Chris Olave's insane rookie per-route rates every week it feels like.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
Chris Olave's rates *really* are insane, though.
28% on a 334 route sample. Just below prime Kupp/Diggs. Above Year 3/4 ascension seasons from Metcalf/Jefferson.
As a rookie.
Insane.
One month later and Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon are still on track for career years as pass-catchers ⬇️https://t.co/9hTz8qkf9F
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
Target per route run leaders at TE
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
29% - Kyle Pitts
27% - Mark Andrews
25% - Travis Kelce
24% - Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee
23% - Jonnu Smith
22% - Dalton Schultz, TJ Hockenson
21% - David Njoku, Isaiah Likely
20% - Gerald Everett, Robert Tonyan, Irv Smith
19% - Dallas Goedert
QBs with the highest percentage of passes targeting the RB position:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
27% - Justin Herbert
24% - Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Davis Mills
23% - Joe Burrow
22% - Mac Jones
21% - Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers
Lowest:
12% - Jalen Hurts
13% - Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota
We cry for Travis Etienne.
Let's dig into the full data on Week 14 usage rates.
Which RB saw promising usage rates despite disappointing Fantasy production? And which wide receiver is going to have a difficult time replicating their big Week 14? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Usage Report, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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Jacob Gibbs
