Fantasy Football Week 12 value watch: Marquise Brown among risers, plus fallers to know based on key usage metrics
Get updated on everything you need to know about Week 12 from one of the nation's top Fantasy experts
We learn new information on a weekly basis as the ever-changing Fantasy landscape reshapes itself. There are many specific usage stats that affect a player's Fantasy projection, and outside of a few players, we see those underlying usage metrics fluctuate throughout the course of a season.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will examine all of this new information and provide a data-driven deep dive into Sunday's games to offer a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
Here, we'll look at the leaderboards in several key metrics around player usage, then examine whose stock is rising or falling after the weekend's action. This week, that includes Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown.
"Marquise Brown was the only Cardinals offensive player to run a route on all 33 of Kyler Murray's dropbacks," Gibbs said. "He led the team with a 28% target share and drew a target on half of Arizona's first down pass attempts. If his target volume sustains, Brown could close the season as a weekly top-20 Fantasy option at his position."
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Week 12 Leaders -- Running Back
Snap rate
Week 12 RB snap rate leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
97% - James Conner
91% - Rachaad White
85% - Dalvin Cook
83% - Latavius Murray
82% - Rhamondre Stevenson
80% - Samaje Perine
79% - Josh Jacobs, JaMycal Hasty
78% - Devin Singletary
75% - Saquon Barkley
71% - Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the running back position than snap rate.
Route involvement rate
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above ran a route on at least half of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
RB route involvement rate leaders Week 12
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
88% - James Conner
76% - Rachaad White
75% - Aaron Jones
72% - Jeff Wilson, Kyren Williams
71% - Dalvin Cook
69% - Samaje Perine, CMC
65% - Latavius Murray
64% - Devin Singletary, Rhamondre Stevenson
62% - JaMycal Hasty, Josh Jacobs
Red zone usage
Week 12 RB red zone snap rates
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
100% - Rachaad White, Jeff Wilson, Kenneth Walker, Latavius Murray, James Conner, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary
88% - Samaje Perine
86% - Cordarrelle Patterson
83% - JaMycal Hasty
80% - Alvin Kamara
78% - Rhamondre Stevenson
Red zone snap rate over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
97% - Kenneth Walker
96% - Dalvin Cook
90% - James Conner
86% - Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, Rhamondre Stevenson
80% - Najee Harris
79% - Jeff Wilson, David Montgomery
77% - Latavius Murray
75% - Jonathan Taylor
74% - Josh Jacobs
Week 12 red zone touch (rush+rec) count:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
12 - Isiah Pacheco 🤯
7 - Dalvin Cook
6 - Gus Edwards, Jamaal Williams, D'Onta Foreman
5 - JaMycal Hasty, Josh Jacobs
4 - Kenneth Walker, Jeff Wilson
These RBs have the highest percentage of their team's total red zone touches (rush+rec) over the past month
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
82% - Jonathan Taylor
76% - Kenneth Walker
65% - Austin Ekeler
57% - Rhamondre Stevenson
54% - James Conner
53% - Devin Singletary
52% - D'Onta Foreman
50% - Josh Jacobs
Another fun RB stat that I look at on a weekly basis is tackles avoided. Some backs are able to mitigate the damage while playing behind porous offensive lines by consistently making would-be tacklers miss and creating extra yards after contact. Here's who stands out:
Avoided tackle rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
(% of rushes where a tackle was avoided)
38% - Dameon Pierce
37% - Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler
35% - Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones
32% - Travis Etienne
31% - CMC
29% - Kenneth Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson
28% - Jonathan Taylor
27% - Khalil Herbert
And here's who stands out in terms of creating explosive plays:
Explosive rush (10+ yards) rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
21% - Justin Fields
17% - Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb
15% - Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook
14% - Jalen Hurts, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Walker
13% - Travis Etienne
12% - Rhamondre Stevenson
11% - Dameon Pierce, CMC
Week 12 Leaders -- Wide Receiver
Target per route run rate over the past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
(min 250 routes)
32% - ARSB ☀️
30% - Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill
29% - Cooper Kupp
28% - Justin Jefferson, Austin Ekeler, AJ Brown, Mark Andrews, Stefon Diggs, Alvin Kamara
27% - Chris Olave, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Gibson
Yard per route run rate over the past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
(min 250 routes)
3.04 - Tyreek Hill
2.74 - Cooper Kupp
2.69 - Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown
2.65 - Jaylen Waddle 🐧👀
2.58 - Davante Adams
2.53 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.51 - Tee Higgins
2.49 - Chris Olave
2.32 - Stefon Diggs
Highest 'off-target' rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
30% - Kyle Pitts
24% - DJ Moore
23% - Jahan Dotson
22% - Marvin Jones
21% - Darnell Mooney
20% - Elijah Moore, Nico Collins
19% - Drake London
18% - Robbie Anderson
16% - Jerry Jeudy
15% - Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Amari Cooper
Season-long air yardage share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
45% - DJ Moore
42% - Justin Jefferson
41% - CeeDee Lamb
40% - AJ Brown, Davante Adams
39% - Amari Cooper
38% - Chris Olave, Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin
37% - DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs
34% - Tyler Lockett, Darnell Mooney
33% - Mark Andrews
Week 12 air yardage leaders at WR:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
188 - Amari Cooper
171 - Jaylen Waddle
168 - CeeDee Lamb
141 - DJ Moore
135 - Stefon Diggs, Michael Gallup
132 - Zay Jones
131 - Isaiah McKenzie, Chris Olave
130 - Tee Higgins, Mike Evans
108 - Darius Slayton, Justin Jefferson, Treylon Burks
In addition to knowing which players drew massive air yardage totals, it is important to be familiar with air yardage shares. The rate version of this stat can help identify players who might break out if their offensive environment improves and produces more air yards in the future.
Week 12 air yardage share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
78% - DJ Moore
59% - Olamide Zaccheus
53% - Chris Olave, Darius Slayton
52% - Tee Higgins, Zay Jones
51% - Amari Cooper, Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool
48% - CeeDee Lamb, Van Jefferson
46% - DeVonta Smith
45% - Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin
Speaking of rate stats, it's about time that we got to the oh-so-important target share leaderboard.
Week 12 target share leaders at WR:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
41% - DK Metcalf
39% - Stefon Diggs
38% - CeeDee Lamb, Zay Jones
36% - DeVonta Smith
35% - DJ Moore
33% - Olamide Zaccheus, Amari Cooper
31% - Chris Godwin, Davante Adams
30% - Chris Olave, Justin Jefferson, Marquise Brown
29% - Van Jefferson
Those who produce well in both metrics get to be part of the highly exclusive 30-30 club.
Week 12 30-30 club continued:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
33% - Amari Cooper - 51%
31% - Davante Adams - 31%
30% - Chris Olave - 53%
30% - Justin Jefferson - 51%
30% - Marquise Brown - 32%
Understanding which players are demanding the most volume is important, but it's also worth remembering that player volume starts at a team level. Darnell Mooney barely had an opportunity to accumulate receiving stats as a member of Chicago's anemic passing offense before he got hurt, for example.
So, which teams were intentional about pushing the ball down the field? And which teams were the least aggressive?
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders. Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
The following teams stand out as having provided the most or fewest air yards.
These offenses have provided the most air yards per game:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 24, 2022
347 - New Orleans
311 - Miami
307 - Buffalo
304 - Denver
298 - Tampa Bay
295 - Pittsburgh
294 - Detroit
And the fewest:
168 - NY Giants
171 - Chicago
182 - Tennessee
183 - Carolina
200 - Philadelphia
204 - Atlanta
'Off-target' rates
Highest off-target rate thru 10 weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
(min 150 attempts)
19% - Justin Fields
18% - Marcus Mariota
15% - Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush
14% - Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson
13% - Mac Jones, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff
12% - Derek Carr
These quarterbacks have been the NFL's least accurate. Displayed below are the most accurate QBs.
Lowest off-target rate thru 10 weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
(min 150 attempts)
7% - Matt Ryan, Geno Smith, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts
8% - Andy Dalton, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones
9% - Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill
10% - Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Jimmy G
And these quarterbacks have been the least accurate on downfield throws.
Highest off-target rate on deep attempts (+15 air yards)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
39% - Lamar Jackson
38% - Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford
38% - Baker Mayfield
35% - Justin Fields
33% - Trevor Lawrence
32% - Mac Jones
31% - Jameis Winston
29% - Jared Goff
28% - Zach Wilson
27% - Davis Mills, PJ Walker
And the most accurate downfield passers:
Lowest off-target rate on deep attempts (+15 air yards)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
9% - Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa
15% - Geno Smith
17% - Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts
18% - Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton
19% - Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett
20% - Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan
21% - Joe Burrow
Week 12 Leaders -- Tight End
Week 12 target share leaders at TE:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
25% - Cole Kmet, Hayden Hurst
23% - Mark Andrews
22% - Travis Kelce
20% - Josh Oliver
19% - David Njoku, Foster Moreau
18% - John Bates
16% - TJ Hockenson
15% - Chigoziem Okonkwo
14% - Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry
Week 12 TE air yardage share leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
30% - Foster Moreau
26% - Mark Andrews
24% - Cole Kmet
23% - Travis Kelce
22% - John Bates
21% - Josh Oliver
17% - Tyler Conklin, Chigoziem Okonkwo
16% - David Njoku
15% - Hunter Henry
14% - Hayden Hurst
12% - TJ Hockenson
Week 12 TE air yardage leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
94 - Foster Moreau
92 - Mark Andrews
74 - Josh Oliver
57 - David Njoku
49 - Travis Kelce
47 - Chigoziem Okonkwu
44 - Hunter Henry
42 - Cole Kmet
35 - Hayden Hurst
Route involvement rate -- the percentage of a team's routes on which a player runs a route.
Week 12 TE route involvement leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 28, 2022
95% - Mark Andrews
93% - Cole Kmet
90% - Foster Moreau, George Kittle
81% - Evan Engram
80% - Greg Dulcich
79% - Hayden Hurst
77% - Dawson Knox
76% - Austin Hooper, Tyler Conklin
74% - Travis Kelce, David Njoku, TJ Hockenson
To draw a target, a tight end must first be running a route. The players above ran a route on the highest percentage of their team's dropbacks.
Target per route run rate
Target share isn't the only stat that captures a player's ability to demand targets -- target per route run rate is another important metric. With more route-running opportunities, these players could be highly productive in Fantasy.
I tweet about Chris Olave's insane rookie per-route rates every week it feels like.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
Chris Olave's rates *really* are insane, though.
28% on a 334 route sample. Just below prime Kupp/Diggs. Above Year 3/4 ascension seasons from Metcalf/Jefferson.
As a rookie.
Insane.
Target per route run leaders at RB
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
33% - Austin Ekeler
29% - Alvin Kamara
28% - Breece Hall, Christian McCaffrey
27% - D'Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson
26% - Antonio Gibson
25% - Rex Burkhead
24% - Joe Mixon
23% - Derrick Henry 👀
22% - Tony Pollard, Samaje Perine
Target per route run leaders at TE
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
29% - Kyle Pitts
27% - Mark Andrews
25% - Travis Kelce
24% - Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee
23% - Jonnu Smith
22% - Dalton Schultz, TJ Hockenson
21% - David Njoku, Isaiah Likely
20% - Gerald Everett, Robert Tonyan, Irv Smith
19% - Dallas Goedert
QBs with the lowest percentage of passes targeting the RB position:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
10% - Dak Prescott
11% - Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford
13% - Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith
14% - Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins
15% - Trevor Lawrence, Jameis Winston
Let's dig into the full data on Week 12 usage rates.
Which RB saw promising usage rates despite disappointing Fantasy production? And which wide receiver is going to have a difficult time replicating their big Week 12? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Usage Report, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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