Fantasy Football Week 11 value watch: Gabe Davis among risers, plus fallers to know based on key usage metrics
Get updated on everything you need to know about Week 11 from one of the nation's top Fantasy experts
We learn new information on a weekly basis as the ever-changing Fantasy landscape reshapes itself. There are many specific usage stats that affect a player's Fantasy projection, and outside of a few players, we see those underlying usage metrics fluctuate throughout the course of a season.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will examine all of this new information and provide a data-driven deep dive into Sunday's games to offer a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
Here, we'll look at the leaderboards in several key metrics around player usage, then examine whose stock is rising or falling after the weekend's action. This week, that includes Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis.
"Don't look now, but Gabe Davis has finally begun to demand targets with consistency." Gibbs says. "He accounted for 28% of Buffalo's targets and 50% of the air yardage in Week 11. Over the past month, Davis has a target share of 24% or higher in 3 of his past four games. Prior to that stretch, Davis hit that rate in just 1 of 37 games."
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Week 11 Leaders -- Running Back
Snap rate
Week 11 RB snap rate leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
93% - Najee Harris
82% - Josh Jacobs
79% - David Montgomery
78% - Saquon Barkley, Dameon Pierce
76% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Taylor
73% - Devin Singletary
70% - Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara
69% - Samaje Perine, Austin Ekeler
67% - Antonio Gibson
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the RB position than snap rate.
Route involvement rate
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above ran a route on at least half of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
RB route involvement rate leaders Week 11
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
84% - Najee Harris
79% - Rhamondre Stevenson
77% - David Montgomery
70% - Devin Singletary
69% - Alvin Kamara
64% - Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson
63% - Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams
58% - Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones
55% - Dameon Pierce
Red zone usage
Week 11 RB red zone snap rates
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
100% - Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Samaje Perine, Chuba Hubbard
91% - Alvin Kamara
87% - Devin Singletary
75% - Melvin Gordon, Kyren Williams, Kenyan Drake
Season-long red zone snap rate leaders at RB:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 24, 2022
90% - Joe Mixon
81% - Devin Singletary
76% - Saquon Barkley
75% - Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry
73% - Najee Harris
71% - Josh Jacobs
70% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Ekeler
67% - Dalvin Cook
66% - Dameon Pierce
Week 11 red zone touch (rush+rec) count:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
8 - Devin Singletary
7 - Austin Ekeler
6 - Jalen Hurts, Jonathan Taylor
5 - Marcus Mariota
4 - Antonio Gibson, Ezekiel Elliott, D'Andre Swift, Samaje Perine
3 - Jamaal Williams, David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Boston Scott
These RBs have the highest percentage of their team's total red zone touches (rush+rec) on the season
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 7, 2022
65% - Dameon Pierce
61% - Derrick Henry
51% - Jamaal Williams, Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker
50% - Joe Mixon
46% - Austin Ekeler
43% - Najee Harris
42% - Rhamondre Stevenson
These RBs have the highest percentage of their team's total red zone touches (rush+rec) over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
73% - Derrick Henry
70% - Kenneth Walker
68% - D'Onta Foreman
67% - Austin Ekeler, Dameon Pierce
60% - Rhamondre Stevenson
59% - Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon
Another fun RB stat that I look at on a weekly basis is tackles avoided. Some backs are able to mitigate the damage while playing behind porous offensive lines by consistently making would-be tacklers miss and creating extra yards after contact. Here's who stands out:
Past month's avoided tackle rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
38% - Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs
37% - Tyler Allgeier
34% - Aaron Jones
33% - Rhamondre Stevenson
29% - Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce
28% - Alvin Kamara
27% - Najee Harris
26% - Dalvin Cook
And here's who stands out in terms of creating explosive plays:
Explosive rush (10+ yards) rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
21% - Justin Fields
17% - Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb
15% - Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook
14% - Jalen Hurts, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Walker
13% - Travis Etienne
12% - Rhamondre Stevenson
11% - Dameon Pierce, CMC
Week 11 Leaders -- Wide Receiver
Target per route run rate over the past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
(min 250 routes)
32% - ARSB ☀️
30% - Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill
29% - Cooper Kupp
28% - Justin Jefferson, Austin Ekeler, AJ Brown, Mark Andrews, Stefon Diggs, Alvin Kamara
27% - Chris Olave, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Gibson
Yard per route run rate over the past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
(min 250 routes)
3.04 - Tyreek Hill
2.74 - Cooper Kupp
2.69 - Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown
2.65 - Jaylen Waddle 🐧👀
2.58 - Davante Adams
2.53 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.51 - Tee Higgins
2.49 - Chris Olave
2.32 - Stefon Diggs
Highest 'off-target' rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
30% - Kyle Pitts
24% - DJ Moore
23% - Jahan Dotson
22% - Marvin Jones
21% - Darnell Mooney
20% - Elijah Moore, Nico Collins
19% - Drake London
18% - Robbie Anderson
16% - Jerry Jeudy
15% - Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Amari Cooper
Elijah is sharp.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
And Darnell Mooney is a stud. His 68% catch rate is by far the highest among the high off-target rate players.https://t.co/uLWj6SmvMd
Week 11 air yardage leaders at WR:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
165 - Allen Lazard
160 - Davante Adams
153 - Amari Cooper
145 - Tee Higgins
122 - George Pickens
119 - DeVonta Smith
111 - Josh Palmer
109 - Terrace Marshall
108 - Wan'Dale Robinson
106 - Terry McLaurin
103 - Chris Olave
100 - Christian Watson
In addition to knowing which players drew massive air yardage totals, it is important to be familiar with air yardage shares. The rate version of this stat can help identify players who might break out if their offensive environment improves and produces more air yards in the future.
Week 11 air yardage share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
70% - Terrace Marshall
66% - Demarcus Robinson
64% - DeVonta Smith
52% - Amari Cooper
51% - Terry McLaurin
50% - Gabe Davis
49% - Tee Higgins, Josh Palmer
48% - Alec Pierce
47% - Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton
46% - Allen Lazard, Chris Olave
Speaking of rate stats, it's about time that we got to the oh-so-important target share leaderboard.
Week 11 target share leaders at WR:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
39% - DeVonta Smith
35% - Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, Josh Palmer
33% - Wan'Dale Robinson
32% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
31% - Amari Cooper
30% - AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, Denzel Mims, Allen Lazard, Treylon Burks
28% - Gabe Davis, Keenan Allen
Those who produce well in both metrics get to be part of the highly exclusive 30-30 club.
Week 11's 30-30 club continued:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
30% - Terry McLaurin - 51%
30% - Allen Lazard - 46%
30% - Treylon Burks - 42%
30% - Denzel Mims - 41%
Understanding which players are demanding the most volume is important, but it's also worth remembering that player volume starts at a team level. Darnell Mooney has hardly had an opportunity to accumulate receiving stats as a member of Chicago's anemic passing offense, for example.
So, which teams were intentional about pushing the ball down the field? And which teams were the least aggressive?
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders. Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
The following teams stand out as having provided the most or fewest air yards.
These offenses have provided the most air yards per game:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 24, 2022
347 - New Orleans
311 - Miami
307 - Buffalo
304 - Denver
298 - Tampa Bay
295 - Pittsburgh
294 - Detroit
And the fewest:
168 - NY Giants
171 - Chicago
182 - Tennessee
183 - Carolina
200 - Philadelphia
204 - Atlanta
'Off-target' rates
Highest off-target rate thru 10 weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
(min 150 attempts)
19% - Justin Fields
18% - Marcus Mariota
15% - Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush
14% - Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson
13% - Mac Jones, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff
12% - Derek Carr
These quarterbacks have been the NFL's least accurate. Displayed below are the most accurate QBs.
Lowest off-target rate thru 10 weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
(min 150 attempts)
7% - Matt Ryan, Geno Smith, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts
8% - Andy Dalton, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones
9% - Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill
10% - Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Jimmy G
And these quarterbacks have been the least accurate on downfield throws.
Highest off-target rate on deep attempts (+15 air yards)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
39% - Lamar Jackson
38% - Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford
38% - Baker Mayfield
35% - Justin Fields
33% - Trevor Lawrence
32% - Mac Jones
31% - Jameis Winston
29% - Jared Goff
28% - Zach Wilson
27% - Davis Mills, PJ Walker
And the most accurate downfield passers:
Lowest off-target rate on deep attempts (+15 air yards)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
9% - Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa
15% - Geno Smith
17% - Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts
18% - Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton
19% - Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett
20% - Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan
21% - Joe Burrow
Week 11 Leaders -- Tight End
Week 11 target share leaders at TE:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
32% - Travis Kelce, Pat Freiermuth, TJ Hockenson
30% - Tyler Higbee
28% - Dawson Knox, Kyle Pitts
26% - Logan Thomas
25% - Mark Andrews
21% - Cole Kmet
18% - Greg Dulcich, Harrison Bryant
17% - Dalton Schultz
15% - Tyler Conklin, Juwan Johnson
Week 11 TE air yardage share leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
45% - Mark Andrews
32% - Pat Freiermuth
31% - Kyle Pitts
26% - Juwan Johnson
24% - Greg Dulcich, TJ Hockenson
22% - Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas
21% - Dawson Knox
Week 11 TE air yardage leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
119 - Pat Freiermuth
60 - Mark Andrews
57 - Travis Kelce, Juwan Johnson
52 - Tyler Higbee
50 - TJ Hockenson
48 - Harrison Bryant
46 - Logan Thomas
42 - Greg Dulcich
40 - Dawson Knox
Route involvement rate -- the percentage of a team's routes on which a player runs a route.
Week 11 TE route involvement leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
100% - Foster Moreau
97% - Mark Andrews
89% - Tyler Higbee
86% - Greg Dulcich
84% - Cole Kmet
83% - Dawson Knox
82% - Pat Freiermuth
81% - Hayden Hurst
76% - Travis Kelce, TJ Hockenson (90% before starters were pulled)
To draw a target, a tight end must first be running a route. The players above ran a route on the highest percentage of their team's dropbacks.
Target per route run rate
Target share isn't the only stat that captures a player's ability to demand targets -- target per route run rate is another important metric. With more route-running opportunities, these players could be highly productive in Fantasy.
Some notably low rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 15, 2022
4.5% - Trey McBride
9.5% - Tre' McKitty
11% - Brock Wright, Mo Alie-Cox
13% - Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry
14% - Cole Kmet, Cade Otton
15% - Harrison Bryant, Mike Gesicki
16% - Greg Dulcich
17% - Darren Waller, Juwan Johnson, Austin Hooper, Evan Engram
Not enough routes... but here are some fun small sample size rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 15, 2022
47% - Laviska Shenault (with an average depth of target of -0.4 yards)
35% - Chase Claypool (with CHI)
27% - Kyle Philips
25% - Christian Watson
24% - Kadarius Toney
23% - Rashod Bateman 😢
21% - Treylon Burks
Target per route run leaders at RB
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 15, 2022
33% - Austin Ekeler
32% - Javonte Williams 😭
29% - CMC, Alvin Kamara
28% - Breece Hall, James Cook (seriously, why can't we have nice things?)
27% - Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines, Rex Burkhead
26% - JD McKissic, Rhamondre Stevenson
Bottom of the barrel:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 15, 2022
5% - Isiah Pacheco
7% - Ezekiel Elliott
9% - Khalil Herbert, Miles Sanders, Tyler Allgeier
10% - Brian Robinson, D'Onta Foreman
11% - Darrell Henderson
12% - David Montgomery
13% - Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, Cordarrelle Patterson
QBs with the lowest percentage of passes targeting the RB position:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
10% - Dak Prescott
11% - Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford
13% - Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith
14% - Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins
15% - Trevor Lawrence, Jameis Winston
Let's dig into the full data on Week 11 usage rates.
Which RB saw promising usage rates despite disappointing Fantasy production? And which wide receiver is going to have a difficult time replicating their big Week 11? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Usage Report, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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