Fantasy Football Week 10: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including another potential eruption spot for Dalton Schultz
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs provides one key thing to know about every team playing in Week 10.
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If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 10 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.
One player Gibbs is especially high on: Houston tight end Dalton Schultz in a potential shootout against the Bengals. Cincinnati's week-to-week defensive tendencies have been fluid, and Gibbs says that if the Bengals emulate what worked defensively against Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 9, it could be a long day for Tank Dell and Nico Collins while Schultz soaks up underneath targets. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 10? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses.
If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.
Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 10.
Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 40.5, meaning bettors have hit the Over this week)
Patriots (21 points) -- In Week 9, Mac Jones' tendency to shrivel up and dump it off to his running backs at a high rate when facing two-high safety coverage was highlighted in this space:
"Jones has a league-low completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) vs. two-high looks; only Bryce Young has a lowed yard per attempt rate. Jones has shrunk his average depth of target (aDOT) vs. two-high looks, with Rhamondre Stevenson (31% target per route run rate), Ezekiel Elliott (29%), and Demario Douglas (26%) being his most-targeted players on a per-route basis."
Douglas led the team in targets and receiving, while Stevenson and Elliott combined for 11 targets in Week 9. Digging into coverage type data is important.
In Week 10, the Patriots face a significantly different stylistic opponent. According to the newest Fantasy Points Data Suite tool -- the coverage matrix -- the Colts use single-high safety looks at the sixth-highest rate (61%) defensively.
Side note -- the data that FantasyPoints is making publicly available is so valuable. FantasyPoints CEO Scott Barrett is joining the Fantasy Football Today Dynasty podcast on November 21 to discuss all of their new tools with Heath Cummings and me, if you're curious!
The Colts don't leave the middle of the field open often, which increases the chance of Jones finding success moving the chains. He's been bottom-of-the-barrel against middle-field-open coverage but is middle-of-the-pack against single-high safety looks. We'll likely see fewer targets to the RB position, as Elliott's (17%) and Stevenson's (12%) target per route run rates plummet against single-high coverage.
Specifically, the Colts use Cover-3 at the highest rate (56%) in the NFL. When facing Cover-3, Jones has funneled targets to his tight end or his primary wide receiver (Kendrick Bourne or Demario Douglas). JuJu Smith-Schuster's target rates fall off against Cover-3.
Another factor working favor of Douglas -- the Patriots moved him out of the slot in Week 9.
The Colts only have a 26.4% opponent slot target rate, the fifth-lowest in the NFL. DeVante Parker's potential return might mean more slot work for Douglas, though.
Indianapolis' pronounced coverage splits make this feel like a great spot to start Douglas and Hunter Henry. Mike Gesicki is also interesting, as he led all Patriots pass-catchers in routes run in Week 9 and could come down with splash plays against Indy's single-high safety looks.
Colts (22.5 points) -- Zack Moss has seen his snap rate drop from 51% to 39% and then to 19% in his three most recent games. His 19% rate in Week 9 was by far the lowest of the season for Moss. As a result of this change, we saw Jonathan Taylor score 13.2 PPR points as a pass-catcher while leading all running backs in route participation rate in Week 9.
The Patriots have the ninth-highest situation-neutral (score within six points) opponent pass rate, and we've seen a pass rate of 64% or higher in each of the past three games against this banged-up defense. Gardner Minshew remains in streaming consideration, and we may see Taylor used a lot in the receiving game again.
If Josh Downs (knee) misses Week 10, Michael Pittman could really dominate the target share for Indy.
Over/Under -- 39 points (opened at 38)
Steelers (21 points) -- The Packers have the lowest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (48.4%). This defense invites opponents to run the ball. We'll likely see a lot of Najee Harris, although I wouldn't expect much of an uptick in his middling (that's putting it kindly) efficiency. The Packers have allowed just 3.7 yards per zone-concept rush (10th), and that's where 59% of Pittsburgh's attempts have come.
Jaylen Warren has been so much better.
Warren has been significantly better on man/gap concept runs (5.6 yards per) than zone-concept runs (3.9), while Harris is better suited for a zone-based scheme (4.3) than man/gap concept running (3.2). The Packers are notably better against zone than man rushing. Ideally, we'd see more Warren usage in this spot, but I've learned to not expect logic from Matt Canada's decision-making.
Green Bay's specific coverage tendencies favor George Pickens -- the Packers use a ton of Cover-3, and Pickens has feasted against single-high safety looks such as Cover-3. But, with Diontae Johnson back in the mix, it's tough to trust Pickens.
It's worth noting that Green Bay's defense has kept the ball out of the hands of first-reads -- only eight teams have a lower opponent first-read target rate than the Packers. The more that you dig into this matchup, it's clear that there's some appeal for Pickens in this matchup. He could create some big plays. But the overarching factors weigh heavily.
1. The Steelers are home favorites against a defense that offers light boxes to invite rushing -- it's unlikely that we see a high-volume day from the Pittsburgh passing attack.
2. The Packers have the third-lowest opponent average depth of target (6.6 yards), and Pickens was recently reinstated as a go route specialist.
3. The 39-point over/under in this game is one of the lowest in Week 10.
Packers (18 points) -- The Steelers use single-high safety coverage 63% of the time, the fourth-highest rate. Pittsburgh is one of five teams with a man coverage rate above 35% and one of nine to blitz over 35% of the time. As a result, the Steelers have seen the second-highest opponent average depth of target (9.4 yards).
Jordan Love ranks 34th among 40 qualified QBs against two-high safety looks but is 20th vs. single-high coverage. Love has the 10th-highest deep throw rate when facing single-high. Romeo Doubs is the Packer who has seen the biggest boost in target per route run rate -- up from 21% vs. two-high to 28% vs. single-high.
Someone on Twitter asked me if there were 2023 stats to make them feel better about Christian Watson. I don't see them.
If we zoom out, Watson still looks like one of the most productive receivers in the NFL.
Watson hasn't been nearly as productive in 2023, and the Packers offense has been horrendous recently. Hopefully a Week 10 matchup against Pittsburgh's aggressive defense will be a catalyst for some explosive plays. Football is more fun when Watson is scoring touchdowns.
Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 38.5)
Vikings (19 points) -- The Saints are one of five teams to use press coverage over 70% of the time defensively. When facing press coverage, Jordan Addison has averaged 1.30 yards per route run, compared to 1.87 when not pressed. When facing press coverage without Justin Jefferson on the field to attract extra defensive attention, Addison has averaged just 1.18 yards per route.
Saints (21.5 points) -- The Vikings remain the most blitz-heavy defense with a 53% blitz rate on the year. In four losses, Minnesota has a 60% biltz rate.
The Vikings are unique in that they call a lot of zone blitzes. Most blitz-heavy teams use more man coverage, but 63% of Minnesota's blitzes have been zone coverage looks. When facing zone blitzes, Chris Olave's target per route run rate rises to 30.6%, while Michael Thomas drops to a 20.4% rate. Thomas is a notorious man coverage beater.
This sets up as another game where targets could funnel through Olave. He has built some positive momentum after a slow start to the season.
Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 44.5 )
Bengals (27.25 points) -- Through the first two months of the season, Tee Higgins ranked 78th among 100 qualified receivers in PFF receiving grade (59.7). In Week 9, Higgins posted a season-best 83.5 PFF receiving grade and caught eight of his nine targets for 110 yards.
Houston's defense does not present well for downfield route runners, but a healthy Higgins can win in any matchup. His PFF grades of 71.3 and 83.5 since returning from a Week 7 bye indicate that Higgins is feeling much healthier than he was early in the season.
The way to attack Houston's defense is on the ground, as evidenced in a situation-neutral pass rate of 52.9% (seventh-lowest). The Texans have not faced many top-flight rushers in 2023, and yet Houston's defense has the third-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL. Joe Mixon presents one of the easiest tackle targets in the NFL, so it might not matter.
Texans (20.25 points) -- Prior to Week 9, the Bengals used single-high safety looks 63% of the time defensively, the fifth-most in the NFL. Against Josh Allen in Week 9, Cincinnati's single-high rate dropped to 41%. The Bengals did this to Allen in the 2022 playoffs and really disrupted his flow, and it worked again in Week 9.
I'm super curious about how Cincinnati will approach C.J. Stroud and the red-hot Texans in Week 10 -- I tweeted a thread working through my thoughts on the matchup and how a replica of Cincy's Week 9 defensive strategy might affect Stroud and his pass-catchers.
When both players have been on the field, Tank Dell has actually out-targeted and out-produced Nico Collins.
Dell's edge is small and could very well flip back in the favor of Collins on any given week. The point is not that Tank is clearly better than Collins, but that we don't have any statistical evidence at this point in time that suggests that we should rank Collins ahead of Dell in neutral matchups. Dell is running more routes than Collins every week. For some reason, the Texans have kept Collins at third in routes run regardless of which receivers have been healthy for Houston. Dell is outproducing him when both players are on the field, and he's seeing a handful of additional opportunities to run routes with Collins on the sideline.
There are specific instances where matchups favor Collins over Dell, as has been detailed in this space all year long. This week, I lean slightly towards Dell while admittedly feeling little confidence in predicting how the Bengals will approach this game defensively.
Over/Under -- 38.5 points (opened at 44)
Ravens (22.25 points) -- Lamar Jackson has the highest passer rating in the NFL when pressured. He completed 15 of 19 passes and totaled four touchdowns as the Ravens cruised to a W against the Browns in Week 4.
The Browns (46% pressure rate) are right up there with the Cowboys (48%) and Jets (45%) as the league's best at generating pressure. Cleveland also ranks first by a wide margin in single-high safety looks (74%), with the second-highest rate being 67%.
Jackson has been more likely to attack down the field against single-high looks, and Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers have been his top two targets. Mark Andrews has seen his target per route run rate dip from 31% vs. two-high to just 20% vs. single-high coverage.
The matchup is brutal, and he truly barely played at all in Week 9, so rookie speedster Keaton Mitchell is an extremely risky start for Week 10.
Really, Mitchell's emergence just further complicates things in this backfield and has me wanting to avoid all three members.
I'll be avoiding this game entirely for DFS purposes. A Jackson-Flowers-Cooper stack makes sense from a contrarian standpoint and could legitimately hit, but I've had enough of Flowers in DFS. This feels like a great chance to get a breather -- Todd Monken's passing attack has been very frustrating in 2023.
For season-long purposes, Andrews, Jackson, Cooper, Flowers, David Njoku, and Edwards are fine to plug in if you don't have better options. You can check out my Week 10 rankings or hit me up on X if you have tough start/sit decisions.
Browns (16.25 points) -- Jared Goff's 280 scoreless yards against Baltimore in Week 7 mark the high-point for opposing quarterbacks facing this vaunted Ravens defense, and it took him 53 attempts to get to that number. The Ravens haven't faced many dangerous passing attacks, but they have shut down everyone. Geno Smith only threw for 157 yards last week!
What we're seeing from Amari Cooper in 2023 is wildly impressive, but this feels like one of those games where his offensive environment prevents Cooper from producing. Baltimore's move to more zone coverage lately does not bode well for Cooper, either.
Over/Under -- 38.5 points (opened at 38.5)
Buccaneers (20 points) -- So far, 48% of opponent targets have gone to the "out wide" receiver vs. the Titans, the highest rate in the NFL. Tennessee's 77% opponent first-read target rate is the second-highest.
The Titans have the seventh-highest opponent passer rating (101.8) on attempts of 15+ air yards, and that rate rises to 112.2 when targeting wide receivers deep. On paper, this is an ideal spot for Mike Evans.
Titans (18.5 points) -- The Buccaneers are one of the handful of defenses that have allowed a higher passer rating than the Titans on deep passes to the wide receiver position, and no defense has been easier to attack through the air than Tampa Bay over the past month.
Over/Under -- 45 points (opened at 40.5)
Jaguars (21 points) -- The 49ers get pressure at the fifth highest rate in the league (40.6%), but actually rank only 26th in blitz rate (24%).
Trevor Lawrence ranks middle-of-the pack when pressured or not pressured, but his passer rating when blitzed ranks last among 28 qualified QBs. His average depth of target (10.1 yards) when blitzed is way above the NFL average (7.7). When not blitzed, Lawrence has just a 6.1-yard aDOT and ranks fourth in passer rating.
Evan Engram is the Jaguar who has seen a target spike when not blitzed, while Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk have both seen a target boost vs. the blitz.
Typically, this zone-heavy Niners defense results in lots of short passing, but we've seen several receivers get behind this secondary recently. Week 10 doesn't feel like a clear spot to avoid for Ridley, but the matchup definitely isn't in his favor. The Niners use press coverage 61% of the time, and Ridley's press coverage splits are concerning. I'm providing a slight matchup downgrade to Ridley and a slight upgrade to Engram.
49ers (24 points) -- Jacksonville has the highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (66%), and the 49ers actually are right in line with league average (57%) in situation-neutral pass rate. San Francisco has the third-fewest situation-neutral offensive plays, and we've seen the Niners produce the second-highest rush rate in the NFL as a result. The Niners will air it out when healthy (Deebo Samuel returned to practice on Tuesday, Trent Williams remains sidelined) and in close games. They're only three-point favorites in Week 10.
The Jaguars defense has performed well at times this season but has also given up two big games to Michael Pittman, allowed both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to top 100 receiving yards, and watched Tank Dell get loose for 145 yards and a score. Meanwhile, none of Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz, Kyle Pitts, or Dalton Kincaid topped 30 receiving yards against this defense. Jonnu Smith's 15.5 PPR points is the high-point for tight ends vs. Jacksonville.
Over the first month, the Jags ranked second in the NFL with a 58% Cover-3 rate. From Week 5 on, we've seen Jacksonville move to far more two-high safety looks (Cover-2 and Cover-4, namely). According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite's Coverage Matrix, Jacksonville's two-high safety rate has risen from 35% over the first month to 57% from Week 5 on.
This change is notable because Brock Purdy ranks 15th in passer rating vs. single-high but is first vs. two-high middle-field-open looks.
Deebo Samuel is the Niner whose per-route data has been the most dramatically impacted by two-high safety looks.
Two High/Open splits-- Deebo Samuel (59 routes - 2023)
31% -- Target per route run rate
4.32 -- Yard per route run rate
Single High/Close splits -- Deebo Samuel (68 routes - 2023)
19% -- Target per route run rate
0.69 -- Yard per route run rate
Those are wild splits! And while they have come on a small sample size, it's not a totally irrelevant one.
Over/Under -- 48.5 points (opened at 48.5)
Chargers (22.75 points) -- The Lions rank fourth in pressure rate (41.3%). According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, Justin Herbert has the second-highest off-target rate in the NFL when under pressure. Important context -- Herbert's 11.1-yard aDOT vs. pressure is the sixth-highest in the NFL -- but, come on, a 35% off-target rate?! That's nuts. Jordan Love has a higher aDOT (13 yards) vs. pressure and a lower off-target rate (31%).
Keenan Allen has been Herbert's target when under pressure. In spite of any accuracy issues from Herbert, Allen ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per route run when the QB is under pressure.
Lions (25.75 points) -- L.A.'s defense has sneakily become a pass-funnel unit, with the third-highest situation-neutral (64%) pass rate on the year. The Chargers are one of six defenses allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game and also rank top-10 in missed tackle rate (they're not missing tackles), and defensive rushing success rate.
Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 43.5)
Cardinals (21.25 points) -- Only 38% of opponent targets have gone to the "out wide" receiver vs. Atlanta. That's the fifth-lowest rate, as you'll find in the tweet below.
With a low WIDE TGT%, a negative YPTOE, and a middle-of-the-pack 1READ%, Atlanta stands out as one of the least appealing matchups for opposing wide receivers. I expect that better days are ahead for Marquise Brown with Kyler Murray back, but it may not come in a gross Week 10 game against Atlanta.
Trey McBride's route participation dropped in his second full game as a starter.
Hopefully it's back up in Week 10, because 48% of Atlanta's opponent targets have gone to the slot or inline tight end. McBride is still super cheap for DFS purposes.
Falcons (22.75 points) -- We all know that what is going on with the RB usage in Atlanta is silly. I don't have anything to add of value pertaining to what to expect from Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in Week 10. Robinson has been way more effective in short-yardage situations. For as long as Arthur Smith's around, it doesn't matter.
If Drake London suits up, this is an excellent spot for him to get back to piling up targets. The Cardinals have the third-highest opponent first-read target rate, and London had been establishing himself as the clear first-read for Atlanta's offense prior to his injury.
Over/Under -- 45.5 points (opened at 44.5)
Seahawks (25.75 points) -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted a season-high 41% first-read target share in Week 9.
The Seahawks were obliterated in Week 9, so there were far more three-receiver sets than usual. Still, though, we have yet another encouraging data point for the rookie. It does feel as if momentum has slowly built for Smith-Njigba as he's gotten healthier and more acclimated to the offense while both of his wide receiver teammates have battled injury.
In Week 10, the Seahawks face a Commanders defense that has been carved up by opposing passing games. Washington's opposing situation-neutral pass rate (61%) is the sixth-highest, and the Commanders haven't exactly been a good rush defense. Teams just prefer to attack through the air.
After trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, the Commanders are likely to continue to be attacked aggressively through the air.
When Geno Smith has been pressured, Smith-Njigba has a 9.7% target per route run rate. Smith has gone to his guys when pressured. When Smith has not been pressured, Smith-Njigba has the highest target per route run rate on the team.
Target per route run rate when Smith has not been pressured:
28.0% -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
26.8% -- DK Metcalf
24.7% -- Tyler Lockett
Smith-Njigba has produced more total PPR points when Geno has been blitzed, even though both of his veteran teammates have more routes run vs. the blitz.
Also working in Smith-Njigba's favor is Washington's heavy use of two-high safety coverages. The Commanders rank sixth in two-high usage and are tied for second in Fantasy points allowed per dropback when in two-high coverages. Geno Smith uncharacteristically (only Tua Tagovailoa was better in 2022) ranks 31st among 36 qualified passers in passer rating vs. single-high looks in 2023, but his passer rating vs. two-high coverages ranks eighth.
SEA target shares vs. two-high safety coverages:
21.6% -- Tyler Lockett
16.4% -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
13.5% -- DK Metcalf
The Seahawks really need to get Metcalf going. And the Commanders have allowed tons of big plays down the field. There's certainly potential for him to turn his season around in this spot. On paper, the matchup seems to favor Lockett and Smith-Njigba a bit more.
Commanders (19.75 points) -- Seattle falls in the middle of most defensive tendency metrics. Two factors stand out as unusual.
1. Seattle uses press coverage at the fifth-highest rate (71%), even while ranking first in the NFL in zone coverage (85%) rate.
Both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson have seen a notable dip in their per-route efficiency when running routes against press coverage. Dotson has drawn only four targets on 54 routes vs. press coverage into zone, specifically.
2. Seattle ranks top-10 in both opponent slot and inline tight end target rates while limiting opponents to just a 40% "wide" target rate.
Dotson and Terry McLaurin may struggle with Seattle's physical cornerback play, and Sam Howell's noticeably worse splits against single-high safety coverages don't bode well for this matchup either.
Over/Under -- 38.5 points (opened at 48)
Cowboys (27.5 points) -- CeeDee Lamb is on another level right now, and this matchup presents perfectly for him to continue dominating. Lamb's target rate skyrockets vs. the blitz, and the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. New York's aggressiveness defensively often leaves the secondary short-handed, which has resulted in opponents finding their first-read options with regularity. New York's opponent first-read target rate (76.4%) ranks third.
This could be yet another week where the game script gets completely out of control for the Cowboys. Lamb may not be needed for much if Dallas builds a huge lead early. There's potential for a 200+ yard game, though.
Giants (11 points) -- The Giants have run 88 offensive plays with Tommy DeVito at QB. In those plays, New York has a 39.8% pass rate and has produced four yards per play. On the year, only the Giants (4.1) and Panthers (4.2) are averaging fewer than 4.6 yards per play offensively.
Over/Under -- 36 points (opened at 37.5)
Raiders (17.75 points) -- Only 57.6% of the Jets' opponent targets have been first-read targets, by far the lowest in the NFL. Only 32% of opponent targets have gone to receivers lined up out wide, also by far the lowest.
The RB position has gotten 26.7% of the targets against the Jets, the highest in the league. Josh Jacobs will likely serve as the offensive focal point for Vegas in this game.
Jets (18.75 points) -- The Raiders join the Jets as one of four teams with an opponent RB target rate above 20%. The Raiders also have one of the lowest opponent average depth of target (6.34 yards - third-lowest) rates -- we could see Breece Hall get more involved as a pass-catcher in this spot.
Vegas has been even easier for running backs to attack on he ground. Only the Broncos have surrendered more rushing yards per game.
Over/Under -- 47 points (opened at 46.5)
Bills (27.25 points) -- Speaking of, no defense has missed more tackles than the Broncos, which has helped Denver's opponents compile an absurd 154 yards per game on the ground.
It has been a disheartening year for the James Cook believers, but the second-year back remains top-five in explosive rush (10+ yards) rate among 33 players with 75+ rush attempts. He could certainly bust loose for some big gains against the Broncos. Also working in Cook's favor -- Denver has the second-highest opponent RB target share (22%) and second-lowest opponent average depth of target.
Broncos (19.75 points) -- The Bills rank fourth in two-high safety usage (61%), fourth in press coverage rate (73%), have the lowest opponent average depth of target (6.3 yards), the fifth-lowest opponent first-read target rate (64.5%), and their opponent "wide" target rate (34.5%) also ranks fifth-lowest. All of those factors exist for Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy to contend with in Week 10. Specifically, Jeudy has been noticeably more sensitive to two-high safety coverages.
The best way to attack Buffalo's defense is on the ground. Buffalo's situation-neutral pass rate (54%) is the 10th-lowest, and their opponent yard per rush rate is the third-highest.
The Broncos are six-point road dogs, so don't get carried away with your expectations for Williams in this spot. He absolutely could get "game-scripted" out and finish with fewer than 15 rush attempts. We saw the Broncos feed him 30 touches in Week 8, and I'd expect him to be prioritized early and often in this spot. The Bills are certainly susceptible to playing down to the level of their competition, and it wouldn't surprise me if Denver hung around enough to keep being able to justify feeding Williams the rock.
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