Fantasy football recap -- What we learned from Week 9
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs dug into every game from the ninth week of the NFL season and found several interesting takeaways. See his full notes on each team here!
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will provide an analytical deep-dive into Sunday's games to help provide a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players. If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Offensive pace and scheme notes:
- Neutral pass-to-rush rate standouts:
*Neutral = when the score was within six points*
Season Long:
Seahawks -- 64% (Meaning they passed the ball on 64 percent of offensive plays when the score of the game was within six points)
Bengals -- 64%
Steelers -- 64%
Panthers -- 63%
Bears -- 63%
Bucs -- 62%
Texans -- 62%
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Las Vegas -- 52%
Arizona -- 52%
Cleveland -- 51%
New England -- 51%
Minnesota -- 44%
Baltimore -- 44%
- Average drive distance standouts:
Average drive distance = the amount of yards gained per offensive drive
(Points per drive in parentheses to offer some insight as to which offenses underperformed relative to the amount of yardage they gained on each drive. There's more context -- the average starting field position per drive, for example -- that should be considered, but this is definitely a good starting point for highlighting some outliers.)
*Outliers in bold*
Season Long:
Chiefs -- 42 (2.98)
Panthers -- 41 (2.5)
Raiders -- 40.4 (2.79)
Packers -- 39.2 (3.01)
Cardinals -- 38.3 (2.69)
Bills -- 37.2 (2.66)
Seahawks -- 37.1 (3.02)
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Eagles -- 29.2 (1.78)
Bears -- 29.1 (1.66)
Giants -- 28.9 (1.66)
Broncos -- 28.5 (1.78)
Washington -- 28 (1.68)
Jets -- 24.3 (1.00)
This Week:
Cardinals -- 52.7 (3.44)
Panthers -- 48.9 (3.44)
Chiefs -- 47.1 (3.67)
Vikings -- 42.7 (3.09)
Chargers -- 42 (2.6)
Seahawks -- 41.7 (3.09)
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Colts -- 28.7 (0.83)
Falcons -- 28.4 (2.43)
Giants -- 28.3 (1.92)
Ravens -- 27.2 (1.7)
Buccaneers -- 18 (0.27)
Titans -- 17.8 (1.42)
- Red zone efficiency standouts:
Red zone efficiency = Red zone touchdowns/red zone drives
Season Long:
(This is an easy way of illustrating which teams are over or underperforming when it comes to scoring touchdowns, and thus should be expected to see that rate correct as the season goes on.)
For reference: The league average rate in 2019 was 55.3 percent. The league-high rate was 71.4 percent, and the league-low was 31.3 percent. Four teams were above 70 percent and four were below 40 percent.
86.2% -- Seahawks (Meaning they scored a touchdown on 86 percent of their drives that reached the red zone)
80% -- Titans
76.9% -- Vikings
76% -- BrownsÂ
75% -- Buccaneers
75% -- Cardinals
74.2% -- Packers
-------------------------------------
52.9% -- Falcons
52.2% -- Patriots
51.9% -- Cowboys
50% -- Bears
45.8% -- Giants
25% -- Jets
This Week:
*Only had one red zone drive
100 percent club -- *Titans, Dolphins, Broncos, Panthers, Giants
-------------------------------------
33.3% -- Washington, 49ers
0% -- Cowboys, Buccaneers
I'll be updating this on a game-by-game basis throughout the night on Sunday and into the morning on Monday.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals gameplan clearly was to attack a Miami front seven that had been one of the league's easiest to beat on the ground, as they rushed 37 times for 178 yards in Week 9. They only dropped back to pass on half of their 64 dropbacks, and Kyler Murray only attempted 26 passes.
To the dismay of the Fantasy community, this run-heavy approach did not lead to a big day for fill-in starter Chase Edmonds. Edmonds played 96 percent of the snaps and handled 25 of 26 RB carries, so the role was clearly there. The result was a touchdown-less 70 rushing yards and 18 yards on three catches. The result was super frustrating for DFS or season-long players who trusted Edmonds for big things in this matchup, but the process was correct.
While the Dolphins did an excellent job of bottling up Edmonds, they had no answer for Kyler on the ground. He rushed for 106 yards and a score on 11 carries, and there were seemingly always open running lanes on the outside on read option plays.
The low passing volume led to a disappointing day for DeAndre Hopkins, who saw an uncharacteristically low target share. Instead, it was Christian Kirk who enjoyed a big day. Kirk led the team with eight targets, and he caught five of them for 123 yards and a touchdown. The arrow has been pointing up for Kirk for some time, and he should continue to play well with matchups against the Bills and Seahawks up next.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta built an early lead in this one, so we saw an uncharacteristically low dropback rate of just 55 percent. Todd Gurley chipped in his usual 2.79 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts, and he again found the end zone. Gurley's 62 percent snap rate is probably not what owners were hoping for in a game that Atlanta led throughout. As I have said all season, I am a-okay trading Gurley away if you can get a solid offer for him. His passing game limitations and dependency on finding the end zone are not traits I like in my Fantasy RBs.
So much for Christian Blake being Calvin Ridley's backup and Olamide Zaccheaus being Juliio Jones' backup. Blake was expected to play a large role in this one but ended up seeing just a 17 percent snap share. Meanwhile, Zaccheaus played 73 percent of the snaps and caught four of six targets for 103 yards and a score. I wouldn't be surprised if Ridley remains out in Week 10, and the Falcons have a favorable upcoming schedule for Fantasy WRs. Zaccheaaus is worth an add in most leagues.
Hayden Hurst ked the team with eight targets and caught seven of them for 62 yards. The eight targets matched a season-high, and Hurst is set up for sustained Fantasy success with matchups against the Saints, Raiders, and Saints again up next.
Baltimore Ravens
The Colts couldn't get much going offensively and never really posed much of a threat to Baltimore, so we saw a super run-heavy approach from the Ravens. In the end, just 46 percent of Baltimore's offensive plays were dropbacks. Lamar Jackson salvaged his Fantasy day with a rushing touchdown, but it was another disappointing performance from him as a passer.He threw for no touchdowns and just 170 yards, which made it difficult for any of his pass catchers to make a Fantasy impact. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews led the way with five targets each, but neither topped 40 yards on the day. In fact, not only did Andrews disappoint with 22 yards, but he played fewer snaps and ran fewer routes than Nick Boyle. The late-season schedule is soft enough to make Andrews and Brown decent buy low options, but my belief in this offense is growing smaller with each passing week.
Again, J.K. Dobbins led the backfield in playing time, but this time it was Gus Edwards who enjoyed the better Fantasy day. Dobbins played 56 percent of the snaps to Edwards' 38 percent rate, and he had one more rushing attempt (12) than Gus the Bus on the day. Dobbins was on the field for just one of nine plays from inside the 10-yard line, while Edwards played the other eight. Neither back topped 30 yards rushing in a truly impressive showing from Indy's defense. Rushing lanes will be much easier to find against New England next week.
Buffalo Bills
Week 9 provided yet another example of Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll dialing up an opponent-specific gameplan, as the Bills dropped back to pass on a massive 75 percent of their offensive plays against Seattle's pass funnel defense. 32 of 34 Buffalo's first half plays were dropbacks. The gameplan resulted in just one rushing yard on two carries for Devin Singletary and 18 rushing yards on nine carries for Zack Moss. After Moss dominated the work at the goal line in recent weeks, we saw the two backs each on the field for five of 10 plays from that range, and each back had one goal line rushing attempt.
After a 52/48 snap share split in favor of Moss last week, we saw Moss play 56 percent of the snaps to Singletary's 46 percent rate in Week 9. Moss was on the field for 24 of 48 designed passing plays, and he ran a route on 16 of those plays. Meanwhile, 29 of Singletary's 31 offensive snaps came on passing downs, and he ran a route on 25 of those plays.
It's also worth noting that Moss played more third down and two-minute snaps than Singletary for the first time this season. Upon closer examination, I'm pretty sure that was just a result of the game script, with the Bills playing with the lead for the majority of the game and not finding themselves in many third and long or obvious passing situations. I say this, because while Moss was on the field for 60 percent of the two-minute offense, he was only out there for 14 percent of the two-minute passing plays. While he was on the field for 62 percent of third downs, Moss only played 50 percent of the third down passing plays. It is interesting that Moss was used as a pass blocker more often than Singletary in this game; I theorized prior to the season that Moss could eventually take over the passing down role from Singletary, and Week 9 provided the first glimmer of hope of that being a real possibility.
Stefon Diggs and John Brown dominated the target share in this one. They combined to account for over 60 percent of Josh Allen's targets, and no other player saw a target share above 15 percent.
Tyler Kroft caught a touchdown in this game, but he was out-snapped by Dawson Knox in the sophomore tight end's first game back from injury. Neither tight end is worth owning in Fantasy at the moment, but there is an outside chance that Knox will carve out a Fantasy relevant role at some point this season.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers said that Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis would split the backfield in CMC's first game back, but, to no one's surprise, the split was far from even:
Snap rate -- CMC (70%), Davis (31%)
Targets -- CMC (10), Davis (6)
Carries -- CMC (18), Davis (1)
CMC looked like the back we've seen dominate the usage for the past few seasons in Week 9 -- he handled 28 touches, piled up 151 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, and was on the field for six of seven plays from inside the 10-yard line. Next week's matchup against the Bucs is far from ideal, but the schedule is super inviting after that. CMC has a real shot at being Fantasy's RB1 from Week 9 on.
Robby Anderson racked up another 13 targets, but Kansas City limited him to nine catches for 63 yards. Instead, it was Curtis Samuel who led the Panthers in receiving. Samuel caught all nine of his targets for 105 yards and a score, and he was used three times as a rusher -- one of which was a red zone attempt where he lined up in the backfield. Samuel has been on the field for at least 70 percent of the snaps in each of the past two games, and Carolina has found creative ways to get the ball in his hands in each of those contests. It might be tough for him to maintain the level of Fantasy relevancy he has enjoyed over the past two weeks, but Samuel's emergence is far from irrelevant for Fantasy. With Samuel playing an elevated role and CMC back in the mix, there wasn't much volume left for D.J. Moore in this spot. He led the team in snaps and routes run, but Bridgewater targeted Moore on just three of his 57 routes run. Moore is talented enough to transcend the less than ideal circumstances, as we saw on display over his recent strong stretch of Fantasy performances, but Fantasy owners are going to have to endure games like this on occasion.
Chicago Bears
I tweeted that prior to Chicago's Week 9 game, and we then saw Nick Foles lead the league with 56 dropbacks on Sunday. The Bears are passing at the highest rate in the NFL right now, even when games are close. And with the beautiful upcoming schedule they face, this should mean big results more often than not for Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Mooney led the way with 11 targets in Week 9, followed closely by A Rob (9) and Anthony Miller (8). Miller's snap rate (68 percent) was down a bit from what we saw last week, but it was still his second-highest rate this season. I'd view Robinson as a top-10 Fantasy WR going forward, while both Mooney and Miller are going to be in consideration as top-40 or 50 WR plays on a weekly basis with the favorable upcoming line of opponents.
In typical David Montgomery fashion, Montgomery turned 14 carries and three catches into 42 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns. The combination of Montgomery's lack of burst and Chicago's offensive line woes has led to some really poor efficiency, but it doesn't appear as if anything is going to change in terms of the heavy workload. In a more neutral game environment, Montgomery will have a better shot at returning the top-20 Fantasy RB value that owners are expecting from him.
Cincinnati Bengals
BYE
Cleveland Browns
BYE
Dallas Cowboys
Even though they were playing with a lead for a decent portion of this game, the Cowboys let Garrett Gilbert drop back to pass 41 times (58 percent of the offensive plays) against the Steelers. Gilbert found more success than recent fill-in starters, which allowed the Dallas pass-catchers to return to having some semblance of Fantasy value. CeeDee Lamb led the way with 71 yards and the team's only touchdown of the day, but his snap rate was low (52.8 percent) for the fifth-straight week. Lamb hasn't played more than 70 percent of the snaps in a game since Week 4.
Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz matched Lamb's team-high seven targets, and Amari Cooper was targeted six times. The only one I'd want in my Fantasy lineups going forward is Cooper, but owners won't be able to use any Cowboys until Week 11 with a Bye upcoming.
Even with injury concerns coming in, Ezekiel Elliott still played 65 percent of the snaps and handled 20 touches. Tony Pollard played 32 percent of the snaps and out-rushed Zeke 57-to-51 on half of the carries. The usage wasn't horrible for Zeke in this spot, and it was a difficult matchup, so I guess you can choose to be encouraged if he's on your team. Personally, I want no part of Zeke from this point on. He's outside of my top-20 rest of season Fantasy RBs, and it wouldn't surprise me if the now 2-7 Cowboys choose to sit him down the stretch.Â
Denver Broncos
The Broncos fell behind early and were facing a pass funnel (8th in DVOA vs the run but 29th vs the pass) Falcons defense, so 78 percent of the offensive plays were Drew Lock dropbacks. Lock ended with 313 passing yards and three touchdowns (two through the air) courtesy of some garbage time action, but his 52 percent completion rate tells the true story. Lock draws a similarly Fantasy friendly matchup against Las Vegas in Week 10, but just know that you are playing with fire if trusting him.
The Jerry Jeudy breakout came in a big way in this one, as he demanded a 33 percent target share (14 in total) and hung 7-125-1 on Atlanta's lowly secondary. Joining him in the double digit target club was fellow rookie K.J. Hamler, who maintained a Fantasy relevant role even with Tim Patrick back. Patrick played five more snaps and ran one more route than Hamler, bur it was the rook who finished with one more target and 46 more receiving yards. Jeudy cracked my top-30 WR rankings for Week 9, and he has a decent shot at that status once again in Week 10. I prefer Patrick slightly to Hamler at this point, but neither is someone I'd treat as a top-40 Fantasy WR going forward.
Noah Fant left the game in the first half with an ankle issue, but he ended up playing 78 percent of the snaps. He was the player who lost out most with Patrick returning to the lineup, as just three of Lock's 48 attempts were targeted at his talented tight end. Better days should be ahead for Fant, given the high route run count in this game and positive rest of season schedule.
With Denver falling behind big in this game, their preferred passing down back, Melvin Gordon, saw a clear lead over Phillip Lindsay. Gordon played 60 percent of the snaps, while Lindsay was on the field for just 38 percent of the plays. Gordon was targeted just one time after setting a season-high last week, and he rushed for just 18 yards on six carries. Lindsay actually out-touched Gordon, and there's a chance that he'll fare better in a more neutral game script.
Detroit Lions
The Lions again fell behind early, but this time, it didn't result in a snap rate spike for preferred passing down back D'Andre Swift. After playing a career-high 62 percent of the snaps in Week 8, Swift was on the field for just 40 percent of Detroit's plays in Week 9. He at least led the team with 16 touches, but it's frustrating to see Detroit continue to put limitations on their stud rookie. 16 touches was enough for Swift to compile 97 scrimmage yards against a decent Minnesota run defense. He was held out of the end zone in this one, and Detroit only used him on two of seven plays from inside the 10-yard line. Instead, it was Adrian Peterson who played four of seven plays from that range. Both backs saw two touches from inside the 10, and neither were able to find the end zone.
We saw rookie Quintez Cephus fill in for Kenny Golladay earlier in the season, and I thought there was a chance he'd play a larger role in this one, but he ended up with just two targets and a 41 percent snap rate. Instead, Marvin Hall finished second to Marvin Jones with a 71 percent snap rate. Danny Amendola's snap rate was just 64 percent, but he led the team with 10 targets. Jones is the Fantasy WR to own, but Amendola has some deep league PPR appeal with a favorable upcoming schedule.
T.J. Hockenson's 76 percent snap rate was his highest mark since Week 3, and he caught five of eight targets for 39 yards and a score. It was frustrating to see Hockenson used as a blocker on 42 percent of his snaps in a game that Detroit was playing from behind in. He could sneak into the Darren Waller and Mark Andrews tier of Fantasy TE if the Lions weren't so intent on running the ball, but without a coaching change, it is unlikely that we see Hockenson maximized as a pass-catching weapon.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay dropped back to pass on just 52 percent of their offensive plays in a game they won easily, and there really isn't much to take away from this one. Davante Adams put up yet another dominant performance, and while two of his next three opponents are tough draws, the Fantasy playoff schedule is super appealing for Fantasy players with Aaron Rodgers or Adams on their squads. If drafting for the rest of the season right now, I would select Adams first overall.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was left wide open on two of his four targets, and he caught both of them for touchdowns. There's no need to overreact to his big Fantasy day.
Robert Tonyan played just 62 percent of the snaps and ran a route on 19 of his 41 offensive plays. His highest snap rate this season is 67 percent, and Tonyan has been below the 60 percent mark in two of his past five games. He's not someone I'd rank inside the top-12 rest of season Fantasy TE.
With Dexter Williams leaving the game with an early injury, Aaron Jones probably had to play more (61 percent snap rate) than Green Bay would have liked. He was held out of the end zone and finished with 79 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. After a long week of rest, Jones should be good to go in a Week 10 game that could feature lots of rushing opportunities against the Jaguars.
Houston Texans
The Texans led for most of this game, but that didn't stop them from dropping back to pass on 65 percent of offensive plays. David Johnson played just seven snaps before leaving the game with an injury, which may have contributed somewhat to the high dropback rate.
Deshaun Watson struggled a bit with his accuracy in this spot, but he ended with a respectable 281 passing yards and two touchdowns to go with 50 rushing yards on 10 attempts.
For the second-straight game, we saw Brandin Cooks out-target Will Fuller. Cooks has 18 targets to Fuller's 11 over the past two games, but Fuller was the receiver who finished with more catches (5) and yards (100) than Cooks (3-83-1). Both wideouts will again be top-24 options in a potential shootout against the Browns in Week 10.
Duke Johnson played 90 percent of the snaps after David Johnson went down, and he turned 20 touches into 73 scrimmage yards and a goal line score. It is disappointing to see Johnson only rush for 41 yards on 16 carries against a subpar Jacksonville defense, but he's still someone you should prioritize on waivers if in need of RB help for Week 10. If David Johnson is unable to clear the concussion protocol prior to Week 10's game against Cleveland, Duke Johnson would have temporary top-15 Fantasy RB value.
Jordan Akins played just 34 percent of the snaps in his first game back, while Darren Fells was on the field for 52 percent of Houston's offensive plays. Akins ran three more routes than Fells and saw one more target. Akins played a fairly Fantasy friendly role early in the season, and we saw Fells flash Fantasy relevancy while he was sidelined, so this is a situation worth monitoring going forward.
Indianapolis Colts
After a super strong showing in Week 8, Indy's offense struggled against Baltimore. Philip Rivers dropped back to pass 41 times but was only able to turn that into 227 yards, and none of Indy's running backs were able to top 40 rushing yards on the day.
Jonathan Taylor dominated the work early on and even found the end zone, but he spent most of his day watching from the sideline after losing a fumble. He played just 31 percent of the snaps, while Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins each played 34 percent. Hines led the backfield with a 52 percent snap rate in the second half, but he still saw just four touches.
Michael Pittman's snap rate rose from 58 percent in his first game back to 87 percent in Week 9. He and Marcus Johnson (88 percent snap rate) were the only two receivers to play more than 60 percent of the snaps. Zach Pascal caught five of six targets for 55 yards, but his snap rate was down to 60 percent, and both Pittman and Johnson out-targeted him. Pascal needs heavy volume to be relevant in Fantasy, and if he's going to play behind both Pittman and Johnson, he is droppable in most formats.
Jack Doyle played just 32 percent of the snaps before leaving with a concussion, which led to Mo Alie-Cox leading the tight ends with a 52 percent snap rate. Trey Burton was out there for 43 percent of the snaps and actually ran six more routes than Big MAC, who was used as a blocker on half of his snaps. Alie-Cox caught all three of his targets for 43 yards, while Burton caught just one of four targets for six yards. The Colts have a quick turnaround, with their Week 10 game coming on Thursday against the Titans. I'd be surprised if Doyle plays in that game, so Big MAC is absolutely back on the streaming radar.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags played Houston pretty close in the first half, but ended up falling behind and having to drop back on 61 percent of their offensive plays as a result. Jake Luton actually played really well, completing 26 of 38 passes for 304 yards against a Bradley Roby-less Texans defense. He hit D.J. Chark for a 73-yard touchdown in the first quarter and added a surprise rushing touchdown, and with a matchup against a Green Bay defense that has struggled in 2020, Luton could again put up Fantasy-relevant production in Week 10.
Chark owners have to be thrilled with the results from his first game with Luton. After a frustrating first half of the season in which Chark dealt with inconsistent target totals and ranked near the bottom of the NFL in catchable target rate, he operated as the clear-cut number one option for Luton in Week 9. Chark caught seven of his 12 targets for 146 yards and a score, and he could see heavy volume again next week against the Packers. Shutdown corner Jaire Alexander suffered a concussion in Week 9, and if he's forced to miss Green Bay's Week 10 game, Chark has a decent shot at another strong Fantasy showing.
Laviska Shenault played just 15 percent of the snaps before leaving with a hamstring injury. Chris Conley's snap rate bumped up to 71 percent as a result, and he caught seven of eight targets for 52 yards. He should be on the deep league radar, as his target share stands to remain high if Chark has to contend with Alexander's shadow coverage.
As expected, James Robinson's 90 percent snap share in Jacksonville's last game came down with Chris Thompson back in the fold. He still played 72 percent of the snaps and handled 25 of 26 RB carries, which resulted in 99 yards and a score. Robinson is a bit game script dependent because of the lack of third down and two-minute offense involvement, but he is the centerpiece of Jacksonville's offensive gameplan. All but one of Jacksonville's remaining opponents has a winning record, so positive game scripts could be tough to come by going forward. I'd be fine selling Robinson if you can get top-10 RB value in return for him.Â
Kansas City Chiefs
I was cautiously optimistic that we'd see Clyde Edwards-Helaire return to the role he had prior to the Le'Veon Bell signing, but that was not the case in Week 9. CEH led the backfield in snaps and touches, but he played just 40 percent of the snaps and handled just eight touches. Kansas City worked Darrell Williams back into the rotation after he barely played in the previous two games. Williams played just one fewer snap than Bell, and he was on the field for 93 percent of third downs and 83 percent of the two-minute offense. It's just one game, but it appears as if Williams is back to his early-season role as the preferred back on obvious passing downs, which leaves CEH and Bell to split the early down work. When you combine that with Kansas City's extremely pass-heavy lean on offense lately (the dropped back to pass on 79 percent of plays in Week 9), the Fantasy outlook is quite bleak for CEH. The Chiefs are on Bye in Week 10, and it's possible that we see a change in the playing time distribution following the Bye, because Kansas City's rookie has clearly been their best back in terms of production and passing the eye-test. However, if the roles don't change, CEH owners are likely to be extremely disappointed by his production down the stretch.
Mecole Hardman out-snapped Demarcus Robinson in Week 8, but D-Rob played eight more snaps and ran seven more routes in this game. Hardman finished with 14 more yards and one more target, but Robinson found the end zone.
Really, this game was all about Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, whom the Panthers had no answer for. Hill saw a career-high 18 targets, which he parlayed into a 9-113-2 line, while Kelce caught 10 of 12 targets for 159 yards.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers dominated time of possession and ran 75 plays to Vegas' 50, which led to some weird results for the Raiders. For reference, only the Bucs (46) ran fewer offensive plays than Las Vegas this week.
Derek Carr was reasonably efficient, but a minuscule 26 dropbacks sunk the Fantasy value of all of the Vegas passing game members. Darren Waller saw a monstrous 44 percent target share, but that resulted in just five catches for 22 yards. He salvaged his day with a goal line score.
Nelson Agholor accounted for Carr's only other touchdown, and his 84 percent snap rate led all Vegas receivers. Henry Ruggs was close behind with a 78 percent rate, but it was Hunter Renfrow (58 percent snap rate) who led the team in receiving.
Even in a game that Vegas led in, Josh Jacobs played just 56 percent of the snaps and handled 57 percent of the RB touches. He was out-gained by Devontae Booker, who rushed eight times for 68 yards and a score. Jacobs truthers get mad at me on Twitter every time I mention that his role has been shrinking as the year has gone on, but that is the reality of the situation. He can still provide Fantasy value in the right game environment, but Jacobs is a really low-floor option on a week-to-week basis for someone with a perceived value as a top-10 Fantasy RB. The Raiders have a pretty favorable schedule going forward, so it might not matter that the team is getting multiple backs involved each week, but it is a trend that would concern me if I owned Jacobs anywhere.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Jackson played just two snaps before leaving the game with a knee injury. Here's how the backfield split between Joshua Kelley and Kalen Ballage shook out in his absence:
Snap rate -- Kelley (54%), Ballage (40%)
Carries -- Ballage (15), Kelley (9)
Goal line snaps -- Kelley (4), Ballage (4)
Goal line touches -- Ballage (2), Kelley (0)
Routes run -- Kelley (30), Ballage (13)
Targets -- Kelley (5), Ballage (3)
Third-down snaps: Kelley (63%), Ballage (25%)
Two-minute snaps: Kelley (63%), Ballage (31%)
In a very Chargers-esque move, Kelley -- who has been used as the preferred early down and short yardage option all season -- was used as the passing down back while Ballage moved into the early-down role. Logically, it doesn't make sense that Kelley was getting goal line work over Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson but lost out on those touches to Ballage. But, Ballage did produce 84 scrimmage yards and convert on a goal line carry, so who am I to question Anthony Lynn? It is just frustrating to not have any idea what is going to happen in this backfield on a weekly basis, and this week's developments just added more confusion to the mix.
No receiver has more than three-straight games with double-digit targets this season. Well, if you don't count games missed, Keenan Allen does. In fact, he now has double digit targets in all six games he has started with Justin Herbert. He caught nine of 11 passes for 103 yards and a score in Week 9, and while his Week 10 matchup is less than ideal, Allen is likely to again rank as a top-five Fantasy WR for me. Davante Adams is the only receiver playing a more Fantasy-friendly role than Allen. With matchups against the Jets, Bills, Falcons, and Raiders still remaining, Allen is set for a monster finish to the season.
The role is there for Hunter Henry, but he is just doing nothing with it. He played all but one snap, ran a route on 44 of 50 dropbacks, finished second on the team with seven targets against a porous Raiders defense, and the result was just four catches for 33 yards. I'd like to point to the upcoming schedule and tell you better days are ahead for Henry, but it's tough to feel confident in him at this point.
Los Angeles Rams
BYE
Miami Dolphins
Preston Williams was carted off the field in this one, and he's likely to miss some time with a foot injury. It's worth noting that Williams was dominating the target share prior to his injury. He had four catches for 60 yards and a score in the first half, and his five targets made him the only Dolphin with more than two passes thrown their way. With Williams sidelined in the second half, Tua Tagovailoa focused in on DeVante Parker. Parker racked up 45 yards on six targets in the second half, and his Fantasy outlook would certainly be boosted by Williams' absence.
Tua looked much better in this game, and the Dolphins weren't nearly as run-heavy as we saw last week. He dropped back to pass 33 times and finished with a respectable Fantasy day while enabling multiple pass catchers to have decent Fantasy showings. One pass catcher who didn't make a big impact on the stat sheet was Mike Gesicki, who caught just three passes for 42 yards. While the end result for Gesicki was a bummer, I was left encouraged by his usage. Gesicki's 70 percent snap rate was his highest mark since Week 1, and he ran a route on 32 of 33 dropbacks. Miami trading away Isaiah Ford opened up more playing time in the slot for Gesicki, and Preston Williams' injury could open up more targets. He's a borderline top-12 Fantasy TE going forward.
Salvon Ahmed led the backfield with a 46 percent snap rate, and none of the RBs had more than 10 touches. None of these guys are worth owning in Fantasy.
Minnesota Vikings
After recording the fewest single game dropbacks by any team this season with just 15 in Week 8, the Vikings dropped back to pass just 21 times in Week 9. Detroit never posed much of a real threat, and Dalvin Cook was able to run all over them. Upon reviewing the underlying numbers, there's really nothing to report here. Irv Smith's snap rate was way down; he was seen being tended to on the trainer's table at one point, but Minnesota never reported an official injury.
New England Patriots
Playing on MNF
New Orleans Saints
It's tough to really take much away from a game in which most of New Orleans' starters were pulled early in the fourth quarter. Michael Thomas led the Saints with five first half targets and appeared to generally be back to full speed. With matchups against the Falcons (twice), Eagles, and Vikings still remaining, Thomas has a decent shot at being a top-five Fantasy WR from this point on.
New York Giants
Golden Tate was suspended for this game, and it is unclear if he is going to be part of New York's rest of season plan or not. If he remains sidelined, Tate's absence should mean great things for Sterling Shepard. When both players have been healthy, Tate is the one who has soaked up most of the slot reps. However, with Tate out of action in Week 9, 67 percent of Shepard's snaps came from the slot. He has been much more efficient from the slot than perimeter historically, but Shepard was only able to turn his eight Week 9 targets into six catches for 39 yards.
That might not seem like much, but it's a lot more than what Darius Slayton gave his Fantasy owners. Slayton played 84 percent of the snaps, but somehow was targeted just once on Daniel Jones' 34 pass attempts. There are some juicy matchups on the horizon for Slayton and the Giants, but it is tough to trust a player who has a single target performance within his range of outcomes.
Wayne Gallman led the backfield with a 57 percent snap rate, while Dion Lewis (22 percent) and Alfred Morris (21 percent) were both mixed in as well. Gallman turned 15 touches into 77 scrimmage yards and a goal line score, but he was nearly out-gained on the ground by Alfred Morris, who had five fewer carries. Morris ran with authority in this one, piling up 67 yards on just nine attempts. It would likely take an injury for him to become trustworthy in Fantasy, so for now, Morris is just a thorn in the side of those who scooped Gallman up off of the waiver wire.
Of course he mixed in two drops to make sure his Fantasy owners didn't get their expectations too high going forward, but at least we saw Evan Engram doing things in this game. He led the team with 10 targets and caught five of them for 48 yards and a 16 yard touchdown that he laid out to make the catch on. Given New York's upcoming schedule, Engram has a shot at finishing the 2020 season relatively strong. He should be viewed as a low-end TE1 going forward.
New York Jets
Playing on MNF
Philadelphia Eagles
BYE
Pittsburgh Steelers
This was supposed to set up as a run-heavy game for Pittsburgh in an easy win, but instead they found themselves trailing for most of the game against Dallas. As a result, the Steelers dropped back to pass on 68 percent of their offensive plays in Week 9. The Steelers frequently used five receiver sets in this game, which resulted in the lowest snap rate (46 percent) for James Conner since Week 1. This schematic change also opened the door for JuJu Smith-Schuster (91 percent), Diontae Johnson (85 percent), and Chase Claypool (81 percent) all to play at least 80 percent of the snaps simultaneously for the first time all season.
James Washington caught a touchdown, but that was his only target of the day. He only played 19 percent of the snaps and actually found himself behind Ray-Ray McCloud (41 percent snap rate) on the depth chart for the second-consecutive game.
Claypool led the way with 13 targets, Diontae Johnson saw 10, JuJu finished with seven, and Eric Ebron caught three of six targets for 22 yards and a score. In addition to his team-high 29 percent target share, Claypool also dominated the air yard share. He accounted for 40 percent of Pittsburgh's air yards, while no other player had a rate above 20 percent. There's no telling how the volume will shake out going forward, but it is promising that Claypool showed the ability to dominate the usage with Diontae and JuJu both healthy. He'd be my preference if forced to choose one Steelers wide receiver going forward, although all three are likely to be ranked as top-25 Fantasy receivers in a favorable matchup against Cincinnati in Week 10.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners ran the fourth-fewest offensive plays of any team in Week 9 in a game in which they predictably struggled without all of their starting skill players. Richie James was the only Niners player to top 70 scrimmage yards, as he led the way with nine catches on 13 targets for 184 yards and a touchdown. His 41 yard touchdown catch came on a busted coverage play late in a blowout, but the rest of his production looked sustainable. San Fran dialed up three designed screens for him and got him one touch pass, as we saw James sort of fill the Deebo Samuel role (but with even more downfield work). San Fran's next game comes against the Saints, and we should again expect a lot of passing in that spot. The Niners should have Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne back for that game, so we may see James' role scaled back quite a bit. However, with Samuel likely still on the shelf, James is worth an add in most leagues.
It was expected that JaMychal Hasty would lead the backfield, but instead it was Jerick McKinnon who dominated the work. His legs apparently weren't feeling as tired for this one, as McKinnon played 74 percent of the snaps and turned 15 touches into 68 scrimmage yards and a score. Hasty played just 26 percent of the snaps and compiled only 13 yards on six touches. McKinnon was on the field for all seven of San Fran's plays from inside the 10-yard line, and he appears to clearly be the back to own between the two.
Jordan Reed played just 23 percent of the snaps in his first game back. Ross Dwelley saw a 74 percent snap rate and ran a route on 26 of his 43 plays. If we get word that Reed is ready to play a larger percentage of the snaps after a long week of rest, he'll be in streaming consideration vs. a Saints defense that has struggled against the tight end position. If not, neither tight end is going to be viable for Fantasy.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks found themselves in a big hole early in this game and ended up dropping back to pass on 75 percent of their offensive plays as a result. Travis Homer ended up operating as the team's clear preferred passing down RB after we saw DeeJay Dallas dominate the playing time in Week 9. Homer was on the field for 77 percent of third downs and 76 percent of the two-minute offense. With Dallas filling more of an early down role and Homer the preferred passing down role, it was of course the latter who saw a higher snap rate (48 percent) on a day where Seattle was attempting to erase a large deficit. Dallas led the team in carries (just seven) and converted one of his three goal line rushing attempts into a touchdown, but he was on the field for just 31 percent of the offensive plays.
Even in a matchup against Tre'Davious White, DK Metcalf led the Seahawks in targets (nine), air yards (108), and receiving yards (108). Tyler Lockett caught just four of seven targets for 40 yards, but it's worth noting that he just missed on two potential touchdown opportunities. The matchup will set up better for Lockett against a Rams defense that funnels targets to the short and intermediate area of the field and focuses on preventing deep passing, but as we've seen multiple times already this season, DK Metcalf is proving to be matchup proof in his sophomore campaign.
Will Dissly led Seattle's tight end group in snap rate (63 percent) in Week 8, but it was Jacob Hollister (48 percent) who played the most in Week 9. With Hollister getting more involved in recent weeks, it is going to be hard for any of Seattle's tight ends to be Fantasy relevant.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs got absolutely boat raced by the Saints, so it's hard to really take much away from this one. Mike Evans ended up leading the team in receiving, but most of that came in garbage time. In the first half, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski tied for the team lead with four targets, while Evans saw just one. Godwin led the receivers with a 94 percent snap rate, and it was good to see no limitations on him after missing time. Antonio Brown played 78 percent of the snaps in his first game back, and his presence pushed Godwin back into the slot for 77 percent of his routes. Scotty Miller played just 38 percent of the offensive snaps and will have a tough time being Fantasy relevant with AB in the mix.
Rob Gronkowski's snap rate was down to a season-low 54 percent, but he played 70 percent of the snaps in the first half. I wouldn't be overly concerned as a Gronk owner.
We saw Ronald Jones dominate the work early in the game, but it was "passing down specialist" Leonard Fournette who ended up leading the backfield with a 66 percent snap rate in a game where Tampa Bay had to abandon the run. Fournette ran more routes than Gronk or Scotty Miller, and he tied for the team lead with six targets. A Week 10 matchup against the Panthers sets up as more of a RoJo spot, but with snap rates of just 32 and 24 percent over the past two weeks, Jones is going to be difficult to trust for Fantasy.
Tennessee Titans
Even in a brutal matchup against Chicago, on a day where Ryan Tannehill dropped back to pass just 25 times and threw for just 158 yards, A.J. Brown was able to finish with 101 yards and a touchdown. The dude is just ridiculous. He created 44 yards after the catch, and he finished the day with a 43 percent target share and 60 percent air yard share. The matchups don't get easier anytime soon, as the Titans will face the Colts (twice) and the Ravens in the next three games, but Brown has the ability to go off in any matchup.
Corey Davis saw three targets and 60 air yards, but he ended up with a donut in the box score on a day that Tannehill completed just 10 passes. He'll be tough to trust with the upcoming schedule, but be sure not to forget what we had seen from Davis prior to this brutal string of matchups. The final four games of the Fantasy season all set up as spots that Davis could thrive in, and there's a chance that you'll be able to scoop him off of the waiver wire if his owner grows frustrated with him during the upcoming set of tough matchups.
Jonnu Smith was only only targeted twice, but it was encouraging to see him run a route on 21 of 25 dropbacks. He actually ran more routes than A.J. Brown in Week 9. Smith had been somewhat neglected as a pass-catching weapon over the past few weeks, as the Titans elected to use him as a blocker more often and use Anthony Firkser more as a route runner. Smith is still going to be tough to trust with the upcoming schedule, but at least we saw his role improve somewhat in Week 9.
Washington Football Team
There was hope that Antonio Gibson would take on a larger role out of Washington's Week 8 Bye, but instead, we saw J.D. McKissic play a season-high 83 percent of the snaps while Gibson's snap rate fell to 46 percent. McKissic hadn't spent more than six snaps lined up in the slot all season prior to Week 7, but we've seen him play 15 snaps from the slot in each of the past two games. This is actually somewhat encouraging news for Gibson, as it could allow both backs to play above 50 percent of the snaps on a regular basis in more neutral game environments. Five of Gibson's carries and one of his targets in this game came with McKissic lined up in the slot. It seems clear that McKissic isn't going away at this point, and his team-leading 13 targets make it clear that he is a must-own in any sort of PPR format. McKissic is bordering on top-24 rest of season Fantasy RB status in full PPR formats with the amount of favorable matchups Washington still has remaining on the schedule.
Alex Smith threw for 325 yards, and it is super cool that he has been able to return to an NFL field, but I'm not entirely convinced that he belongs there (health reasons aside). He threw three interceptions in this game, and two of them were absolutely brutal attempts by Smith. 235 of his 325 yards came after the catch, as Smith's average depth of target was an NFL-low 3.34 yards. He's not someone I'd be rushing to add in 2QB leagues, and honestly, I'd be fine selling guys like Terry McLaurin, McKissic, or Gibson if you can get proper value for them. As we saw on display once again, McLaurin is an absolute stud who can transcend just about any poor QB performances. But, as we saw when the Alex Smith-led Washington offense totaled just 108 yards in Week 5, things can get ugly quickly for this offense. I hope that the upcoming schedule is soft enough to offset Smith's impact on the offense, but I am definitely worried as someone who owns a lot of McLaurin and Gibson across various formats.
