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    Fantasy Football 2023: Ten winners coming out of NFL free agency

    Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs took a look at all the moves from an eventful NFL free agency period and broke down which players' Fantasy value rose the most as a result.
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    After 2021 and 2022 treated us to two of the wildest offseasons in recent memory, the 2023 offseason has felt quite relaxed. Aside from Aaron Rodgers drama, we really haven't seen many superstars moved. Chicago trading away the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is of course a headlining story, but D.J. Moore joining a Bears offense that has yet to prove to be anything close to a competent passing attack just does not get the blood pumping like the Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown trades did in 2022.

    No, the story of the 2023 offseason hasn't focused on how superstars will fit in with new teams, but rather how longtime offensive stalwarts moving on will affect the players left behind. Ezekiel Elliott's tenure with the Cowboys finally has come to an end, and the Bears, Bills, and Eagles all moved on from their entrenched backfield starters too. Who will step up from these backfields? There's a trickle-down effect with any player movement, and as the dust settles on the 2023 free agency period, we have a more clear view of which players' Fantasy value has changed the most.

    If you've had a difficult time keeping up with all of the changes, here are the 10 players I believe to have benefited most from the 2023 free agency period:

    Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

    The Bears have put their belief in Justin Fields on full display. In addition to acquiring Chase Claypool during the 2022 regular season, Chicago traded away the top pick in the draft to the Panthers in a deal that included star wideout D.J. Moore as a "must" for the Bears. During the free agency period, Chicago beefed up the offensive line with guard Nate Davis and signed tight end Robert Tonyan. The Bears still could add to this offensive unit, too -- Chicago possesses four of the first 64 picks and eight of the top 157 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft.

    Similar to Jalen Hurts in 2021, Fields proved his ability to produce league-winning Fantasy scores as a rusher and now has an opportunity to take the next step as a passer. If his revamped offensive environment allows Fields to elevate his passing productivity, he absolutely could finish 2023 as the QB1 in Fantasy. Fields finished as the Fantasy QB6 with a supporting cast that was severely lacking in 2022, and he was by far the highest-scoring Fantasy QB for an extended stretch during the middle of the season. He belongs in the same tier as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts after this free agency period.

    Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

    There is a data-based argument that can be made that Khalil Herbert was the NFL's best rusher in 2022. He recorded a 17.1% explosive rush rate (the percentage of his attempts that gained 10+ yards) -- among backs with 100+ attempts, Herbert's rate ranked first in 2022 and ninth over the past 10 seasons.

    Herbert outproduced David Montgomery with his opportunities in a significant way as a rookie in 2021, and the discrepancy grew even wider in Year 2. Montgomery struggled to find yards before contact, ranking 35th among 41 qualified backs, which could be attributed to Chicago's offensive line woes. However, Herbert ranked fourth in yards before contact and has consistently outproduced Montgomery in this metric while running behind the same offensive line over the past two seasons. Herbert added the NFL's third-highest yardage after contact average to produce by far the highest yards per attempt clip (5.7) among running backs with 100+ rushes in 2022.

    I believe that comparing backs to their backfield teammates is one of the most insightful forms of RB analysis -- specifically, I am interested in comparing their success rates, explosive rush rates, and yards before contact. I will publish a follow-up article with the data points that stood out to me when comparing how each RB performed relative to their teammates. The target date for that article to go live on SportsLine is early May, once we know where the rookie backs have landed.

    There are exceptions -- the opportunities that Jamal Williams and D'Andre Swift received as rushers certainly were not the same in 2022 -- generally speaking, comparing how players perform while rushing behind the same offensive line offers insight into their ability. If a fill-in RB produces similar efficiency, it's possible that the starter's efficiency is a product of his offensive environment. If a member of a committee is consistently outproduced by his teammates in the yardage before contact department, it could indicate that he is struggling to find the holes that the offensive line is opening up.

    While researching backfield discrepancies for that article, few backfields stood out more than the Bears. Among qualified backs, the only one who produced a wider discrepancy between his teammates and himself than Herbert was Houston's rookie Dameon Pierce. The discrepancy score that I reference is the cumulative representation of the discrepancy between the back's rushing success rate, yards per attempt, and explosive rush rate relative to the combined rates attained by the other members of his backfield. Four backs finished with a rating of 100 or better: Pierce, Herbert, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler. Of that group, Herbert and Pollard are the two that really stand out -- while Ekeler's and Pierce's metrics were measured up against a group of highly inefficient backups, Herbert and Pollard stood out among their backfield while competing against players who were presumed to be starting caliber backs entering the 2022 season.

    Herbert faces no such competition as he looks forward to Year 3. The Bears did bring in D'Onta Foreman, but that investment (one-year, $3 million) hardly compares to their former offensive building block, David Montgomery. Foreman was a strong yardage-after-contact producer in 2022 and flashed five games of 100+ rushing yards, but Chuba Hubbard outproduced him in most efficiency metrics from the same backfield. In my opinion, the decision to move on from Montgomery speaks much louder than cheap additions of Foreman and Travis Homer. I am projecting Herbert to lead this backfield by a wide margin, which could turn out to be a lucrative Fantasy role if Justin Fields takes a big step forward in 2023. I currently have him ranked as a top-20 Fantasy RB for 2023, in the same range as J.K. Dobbins and Isiah Pacheco.

    Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

    Like Herbert, Pollard's 2021-22 numbers jump off the page -- especially when compared to his backfield teammates -- and it appears that the leading role in his backfield that his metrics so readily imply he deserves finally belongs to him as we look forward to the 2023 season.

    What Pollard has accomplished statistically over the past two seasons is so impressive. He has the ninth-highest target per route run rate at the RB position over the past two seasons, and that is including passing down specialists like Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic, and Ameer Abdullah. The only starting RBs with a higher rate are Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift, and Alvin Kamara. The only one with a higher yard per route run rate during that time is McCaffrey. None of those backs have averaged more yards after the catch per reception than Pollard.

    As a pass-catcher, Pollard has proven to been as good as they come. And there is no fall-off when comparing his rushing metrics.

    Pollard led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt in 2022, and only Nick Chubb (3.81 yards) has a higher rate (3.73 for Pollard) over the past two seasons. Chubb (16.6%) also stands as the only player with a higher explosive rush rate than Pollard (14.9%) over the past two seasons.

    Pollard's overall backfield discrepancy rating shows only Dameon Pierce and Khalil Herbert ahead of Pollard in 2022 and only Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara ahead of him across the 2021-22 seasons.

    By all indications, Pollard is one of the NFL's most explosive playmakers. The Cowboys have finally moved on from Ezekiel Elliott, and if Pollard's efficiency metrics hold up at even an 80-90% rate extrapolated over a larger workload, we could be looking at the RB1 in Fantasy.

    Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks

    Rashaad Penny doesn't have enough attempts to qualify, but if he did, all of the discrepancy metrics that I referenced attached to Herbert's and Pollard's awesomeness would include a "Behind only Rashaad Penny" qualifer. Kenneth Walker proved to be every bit the monster that we hoped that he might be during his rookie season. And still, Rashaad Penny's metrics were much more monstrous.

    Walker averaged 4.6 yards per rush, Penny nearly matched that average with his yards after contact per rush rate (4.23) alone. On the season, Penny averaged 6.1 yards on his 57 attempts. What's really insane is that if you include his 119 rushes from the 2021 season, Penny's rates get even better. On 176 attempts over the past two seasons, Penny has averaged 6.2 yards and 4.43 yards after contact. The next-highest yards after contact per rush rate among backs with 150+ attempts during that time is 3.81.

    The last time that we saw Penny healthy for a full season was 2017, when he rushed for 2,248 yards and 23 touchdowns -- no RB has topped that single-season rushing yardage total since then and only four have ever done so. He has been plagued by injuries at the pro level, but Penny finds himself poised to put the past behind him as a member of the Eagles in 2023.

    Philly has had arguably the best run blocking unit in the NFL, and that notion is backed up by their yardage before contact creation. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have averaged more yards before contact on RB rush attempts over the past two seasons than the Eagles, and one could speculate that their average has more to do with opposing defenses playing the pass than the excellence of their offensive line. Miles Sanders and company have benefited from massive running lanes, but their yardage after contact rates have certainly left something to be desired.

    Displayed below are the yardage after contact averages for Philly's RB group over the past two seasons:

    2.99 -- NFL RB average
    2.98 -- Miles Sanders
    2.84 -- Kenneth Gainwell
    2.61 -- Boston Scott

    Penny only received a one-year $1.35 million contract, so there is absolutely no guarantee that the 2023 starting job is his. The Eagles could still add to the RB position this offseason. However, they also re-signed Boston Scott and have three backs on the roster -- it's entirely possible that this is the crew that Philadelphia will enter the 2023 season with. In that scenario, a healthy Penny would project for a potentially massive workload. And if the efficiency that we've seen from him while running behind a far inferior offensive line in Seattle is any indication, Penny could again be the league's most efficient RB on a per-carry basis. There is legitimate Fantasy RB1 upside here.

    Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

    The only RB who has consistently broken off explosive runs at a higher rate than Rhamondre Stevenson over the past two seasons is Nick Chub.

    By all measures, Stevenson was incredible in 2022. He averaged five yards per attempt even while running behind an offensive line that was middling by most metrics. Everything that Stevenson got, he earned -- Tony Pollard (3.82 yards) was the only RB with a higher yardage after contact per rush rate than Stevenson (3.81) in 2022. Stevenson's success rate was 51.4% above his teammate RB average; no one else was even close, Travis Etienne (+28.2%) had the next-highest discrepancy among qualified backs.

    Stevenson's spectacular work on the ground was rivaled by his contributions to the passing game. D'Andre Swift (29.7%), Austin Ekeler (29.3%), ad Christian McCaffrey (26.7%) were the only backs who drew targets on a higher percentage of their routes than Stevenson (26.1%). He did it with remarkable game-to-game consistency, too.

    New England's offensive environment remains dismal -- just because Stevenson ranks near the top of the league in several metrics, we should not expect that level of Fantasy production from him. That type of upside is available to him, though, if Stevenson ever finds himself in an offensive environment more conducive to Fantasy scoring.

    The RB position is more tied to team-wide circumstances for Fantasy purposes than any other, and RB careers don't typically have long life spans -- talent evaluation is far from a guarantee that an RB will deliver the type of Dynasty value that we expect of him. Still, few players at any Fantasy position have done more to convince me of their talent over the past two seasons than Stevenson.

    Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys

    I love this landing spot for Brandin Cooks. I wrote about his fit with the Cowboys, how much receiving volume we can realistically expect him to see, and why I believe that he may still have gas left in the tank as he enters his age 30 season -- click on this link to read about all of that.

    Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

    Nico Collins is also covered in detail in the article linked above. And while this split came in a small sample size, Collins has been far more likely to draw targets on routes run without Brandin Cooks on the field:

    There's a typo in the tweet above, it should read:

    Cooks off -- 25.4%
    Cooks on -- 18.1%

    25% is probably not a sustainable rate for Collins, but he did post a healthy rate (23%) rate in Year 2. Few players improved their per-route data as dramatically as Collins did from 2021 to 2022.

    This is an exciting development for a receiver with decent draft capital who is entering his third season. When we also factor in that his team just traded away its established WR1 and is almost certain to add a franchise QB with the second overall pick, we suddenly have a really exciting outlook for Collins.  

    Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants

    Daniel Jones finished as the Fantasy QB9 in his first season under Brian Daboll. Following New York's Week 9 bye, Jones was the QB4 behind only Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen.

    This offseason, the Giants blessed Jones with a new contract and a cast of new pass-catchers. New York brought back Darius Slayton, who was among the NFL's best deep separators in 2022. He, Wan'Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, and late-season breakout Isaiah Hodgins remain on the roster and will be complemented by the addition of a field-stretching threat from the tight end position, Darren Waller. New York also added another speed threat and potential catch-and-run insurance if Robinson isn't ready to go in Parris Campbell. Campbell showed flashes even in a suffocating Indianapolis offensive environment in 2022 and his presence gives New York potentially five potent threats at the receiver position. Even if the injury bug bites the Giants again in 2023, their depth should prepare them for it.

    Justin Fields is the clearest QB winner from the 2023 offseason, but Jones profiles similarly and can be had for much cheaper in drafts.

    Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

    The fact that New Orleans brought Michael Thomas back keeps this offseason from being a true slam dunk for Chris Olave. While Thomas has shown no ability to remain on the field, he has drawn targets at a really high rate when he has been on the field. From a target competition perspective, a healthy Thomas clearly is a bigger threat to Olave than other receivers on the New Orleans roster.

    Olave highlights a 2022 rookie WR class that was awesome across the board.

    He is a special talent, and I absolutely still expect Olave to draw massive target and air yardage shares in 2023, but Thomas does make it slightly less likely that he reaches the top range of his outcomes in Year 2. And an outside possibility remains that Thomas returns to form and poses a true threat to Olave's volume.

    The most important note of Olave's offseason is that he will transition from one of the NFL's least aggressive passers in Year 1 to one of the most aggressive in Year 2. 

    Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns

    Matthew Berry speculated that Cleveland could look to add a speed receiver opposite Amari Cooper this offseason as they prepare for an offensive attack that looks much different than what we've seen in the past. Insert Elijah Moore, finally freed from New York.

    Elijah Moore was unbelievable as a rookie. His 2021 numbers popped off the page according to almost every advanced metric that I track.

    In 2022, his advanced analytics could not have been much worse. Among 92 qualified wide receivers, Moore posted the 85th-highest target per route run rate and ranked 86th in yards per route run. Those rates are truly difficult to believe after the tremendous data displayed by Moore at the collegiate level and as a rookie in 2021.

    I have no idea what to expect from Moore in 2023. Deshaun Watson played poorly in 2022. There's no way around that fact. Could Watson improve with an entire offseason to familiarize himself with the scheme and personnel in Cleveland? Of course. Similarly, one could speculate that Moore's metrics will rebound in a big way in a situation where he feels valued and motivated. He could even elevate his game to new heights -- the QB play and playcalling will assumedly be better than it ever was during his time with the Jets.

    Upon reaching this level of conjecture, attempting to find the "right" evaluation for Moore is entirely pointless. I would advise you to let your decision on where to reach for Moore in drafts be led more by your evaluation of the players being selected in a similar average draft position range --if you do not feel compelled by the upside proposition of the players on the board, why not take a risk on Moore? The talent was on clear display in 2021 and during his time at Ole Miss -- Moore is one of the most complete WR prospects to come out of the past three NFL Drafts. He is not someone who I will be reaching for in 2023 drafts, but I will not hesitate to pull the trigger on Moore if the price feels right.

    Jacob GibbsDFS Guru

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