Fantasy Football 2023: Positive regression candidates to target, including why DK Metcalf should improve

At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, DK Metcalf is a matchup nightmare. After scoring 7 touchdowns as a rookie, Metcalf went on to find the end zone 10 times in Year 2 and 12 times in Year 3. In his fourth season, Metcalf accounted for 46% of Seattle's red zone targets -- no one had a higher rate in 2022.

He probably scored a ton of touchdowns, right?

Nope! Metcalf's touchdown total (6) in 2022 was actually the lowest of his career. After scoring on 35% of his career red zone targets through three seasons, Metcalf only scored on 19% of his red zone opportunities -- ranked 26th among 32 qualified players.

Metcalf should score more touchdowns in 2023. Simply, a regression to the mean should result in more touchdowns. Big plays -- touchdowns, deep targets, explosive runs after the catch -- swing Fantasy football scores dramatically on a single-game or even single-season basis. These big plays, and the particular offenses and players who stood out as outliers through the lens of big plays, were the topic of a recent Beyond the Boxscore conversation with Draft Sharks Fantasy football analyst Jared Smola. According to FantasyPros, no Fantasy analyst has provided more accurate rankings across the 2020-22 seasons than Smola.

Beyond the Boxscore is a project launching on Fantasy Football Today this summer with a pursuit of adding context to the Fantasy football space and elevating the football experience. Spearheaded by CBS Fantasy experts Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier, and Jacob Gibbs, Beyond the Boxscore can be found on Fantasy Football Today's YouTube channel, and you can stream it on Fantasy Football Today wherever you listen to podcasts. 

The conversation with Smola was an enlightening one that highlighted several players with mispriced average draft positions following an outlier outcome in the big play department in 2022. In addition to Metcalf's surprising touchdown total, the BTB covered 2023 expectations for the Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, as well as specific analysis on several players who are worth either targeting or avoiding based on expected regression.

You can find the players and teams where positive regression is expected below to know who is worth targeting, and the negative regression candidates worth avoiding here.

Which players should we expect to convert on their big-play opportunities at a higher rate in 2023? And just how high could DK Metcalf's Fantasy point total push if he corrects his unusually low touchdown total from 2022? ... Join SportsLine here for a look at which players are currently undervalued for Fantasy and should be expected to regress positively in 2023, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!