Embracing Variance in Fantasy Football: 10 Players with League-Winning Upside

Embracing Variance in Fantasy Football: 10 Players with League-Winning Upside - SportsLine.com

Given the nature of the game, your eyes should be set higher than median projections -- especially in DFS where the majority of players are using a similar set of projections. Ricky Bobby isn't traditionally someone I appeal to for wisdom, but in this instance, his perspective is worth considering. The goal is to finish in first place, right? In most leagues, finishing third is effectively the same as finishing 12th.

This doesn't mean you should YOLO every pick in your drafts. There's a big difference between being intentional about searching for players with realistic access to a massive 2020 Fantasy ceiling and just taking shots in the dark on the riskiest players you can find and hoping for the best.

Sometimes a player flashes massive upside out of nowhere, like Aaron Jones in 2019. Anyone who had been paying attention knew that Jones was a talented player, but even as a ceiling projection, I don't think anyone thought Jones could score 19 touchdowns in 2020. That's not the type of upside we're hoping to hit on. No, instead, we're searching for the 2020 version of 2019's Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson, or Chris Godwin.

The goal is to identify players who have the opportunity and ability to put up a Fantasy league-winning outlier season if a couple unknowns break their way in 2020. For some players, all that is needed is for their already strong red zone usage to yield better results in the touchdown department. For others, an unexpected but realistic change in usage could unlock a monster Fantasy season.

In identifying my 10 favorite high-variance picks for 2020, I did my best to avoid stereotypical "boom/bust" players like Odell Beckham, Todd Gurley, James Conner, or Will Fuller, whose cases are based mostly on better health in 2020. Those players could easily crush expectations at their ADP if they enjoy a full season of health, but I am not capable of quantifying their chances of doing so. Instead, I focused my attention on players who are being drafted at or below where I project their statistical floor to be, while also having a path to returning league-winning value at their ADP if they hit the top of their range of outcomes for 2020.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 1.06 (RB5)

Kamara finished as the RB11 and was eighth at the position in Fantasy points per game, which felt like a disappointment after ranking inside the top-five in both of his first pro seasons. As such, you can draft him at a bit of a discount in 2020. Each of Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook are routinely being selected above Kamara, and Derrick Henry sometimes joins that group.

Coaching changes could impact the roles for McCaffrey, Barkley, and Elliott, but we pretty much know what to expect for Kamara from a usage standpoint in 2020. So, if we have a good understanding of Kamara's role, why does he highlight a list about players with a wide range of outcomes?

A common theme between the players listed is what prevented them from dominating their position in Fantasy during the 2019 season -- an inability to find their way into the end zone. Few players exemplify this better than Kamara.

After scoring 13 touchdowns as a rookie and then 18 in his second season, Kamara found the end zone just six times in 2019. Everything else from his Fantasy profile was the same. For the third-straight year, Kamara caught exactly 81 passes. He averaged 18 touches per game, down just slightly from 2018's 18.3 mark. Kamara also was targeted at the highest rate of his career last season.

Was the massive dip in touchdowns a fluke? A look at his red zone usage offers some interesting insight. Below is Kamara's red zone usage for each of his three seasons as a pro:

2019 -- 27 red zone carries (52.9 percent of the team's carries), 8 carries from within the five-yard line (75 percent), and 11 red zone targets (10 percent)
2018 -- 51 red zone carries (65.4 percent), 16 carries from within the five (53.3 percent), and 25 of 139 red zone targets (18 percent)
2017 -- 25 red zone carries (41 percent), 5 carries from within five (23.8 percent), 14 red zone targets (13.3 percent)

Kamara's split of the team's red zone carries in 2019 was nearly identical to his 54.7 percent mark through the first two years of his career. His percentage of the carries from within the five-yard line was actually the highest mark of his career, but his percentage of the red zone targets was down slightly. Overall, the percentage of scoring opportunities was right in line with what we've seen in years past. The only difference was that New Orleans' offense saw far fewer red zone scoring opportunities with Drew Brees missing five games.

Kamara's 71 red zone touches in 2018 was the third-most we've seen from a running back over the past five years. It beat out historic Fantasy outputs from Christian McCaffrey (68 red zone touches) in 2019 and David Johnson (67) in 2016. If New Orleans' offense returns to the dominant unit we saw in 2018, Kamara's 2019 red zone usage rates would suggest that he'll again be among the league leaders in red zone touches. That type of touchdown potential gives Kamara the highest Fantasy ceiling of any player outside of the top-five in average draft position.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 1.12 (WR4)

Adams finished second among receivers in Fantasy scoring during the 2018 season, but a turf toe injury caused him to miss four games in a slightly disappointing 2019 Fantasy season. Adams didn't average as many Fantasy points in 2019 as he did the year prior, but his 16-game pace for targets of 169 would have tied his career-high. He also averaged a career-best 2.33 yards per route run in 2019, good for the third-best mark among receivers with 100 targets.

If Adams' targets and yards per route run were both up, why was his Fantasy average down in 2019? Quite simply, it just came down to a bizarre inability for Rodgers and Adams to connect in the end zone. Nothing changed when it came to his red zone usage.

From 2016-18, Adams averaged 2.4 red zone targets per game. In 2019, he increased that average to 2.5. From 2016-18, he averaged 0.91 end zone targets per game. In 2019, he also averaged 0.91.

From 2016-18, Adams scored a touchdown on 29 percent of his red zone targets and 45 percent of his end zone targets. In 2019, he scored on 17 percent of his red zone targets and just 18 percent of his end zone targets.

Considering every other area of his 2019 statistical profile was on par with or better than his career year in 2018, I'm willing to chalk the dip in touchdown rate up to poor variance. If Adams' touchdown rate bounces back to his career norm, he could be in store for a WR1 type of Fantasy season while operating as the true alpha in Green Bay's passing attack.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 2.12 (TE2)

Per PFF, George Kittle was not just the best tight end in football last year, but the highest-graded player at any position in the entire NFL. A player's overall PFF grade has little to do with Fantasy production, you say? Well, Kittle also led the NFL in yards per route run -- a stat that correlates nearly as highly with Fantasy points as targets do. Kittle finished first, ahead of all running backs and receivers in yards per route run. In fact, his 2019 mark was the highest posted by any tight end in the history of the NFL, and it came while catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo. Kittle's 2019 was more efficient than any season Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Jimmy Graham could muster while catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, respectively.

There are several ways in which Kittle could increase his Fantasy output, and you can read about each one in detail. If even one of them occurs, he'll likely be the TE1 in Fantasy in 2020. If multiple of the possibilities come to fruition, Kittle could post one of the best Fantasy seasons we've ever seen.

First path to upside -- Kittle could simply see another natural step forward in his progression in his fourth pro season and second full one with Garoppolo at QB. No tight end has ever accomplished the statistical feats that he has from a yardage standpoint, and he did it in just his third season in the NFL.

Second path to upside -- Kittle could maintain his level of play and see more targets as a result of San Fran being forced to throw more in 2020. The 2019 Niners are one of just three teams to finish with a pass-to-rush ratio below 50 percent over the past five seasons, and a repeat in 2020 would be historically unprecedented.

Third path to upside -- Kittle could maintain his level of play while also seeing better luck in the touchdown department. Kittle ranks fourth at the tight end position in red zone targets during each of the past two seasons, yet somehow was 25th and 16th in red zone touchdowns during those years. Kittle has all the tools to dominate in the red zone, and if he is able to convert his red zone opportunities into scores at a higher rate, his Fantasy ceiling is through the roof.

It probably seems silly to include names like Kamara, Adams, and Kittle, who already are near the top of their position in ADP. We're not just talking about returning value on their draft cost, though -- the upside for each of these players is the number one finisher at their position, and for Kittle, the margin between him and the next-highest scorer at the TE spot could be quite wide. I prefer to use late-round fliers on the tight end position but am more than comfortable snagging Kittle in the middle of the second-round of Fantasy drafts given his upside to present a massive weekly edge over opponents in the same way that McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson did in 2019.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 2.04 (RB10)

After being acquired from the Dolphins in Week 9, Kenyan Drake almost immediately assumed a workhorse role for the Cardinals. Despite David Johnson and Chase Edmonds being relatively healthy during that time, Drake's snap rate never dropped below 64 percent in any individual game. He was Fantasy's RB3 from Week 9 on, and his 19.9 PPR points per game during that time would have trailed only Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook over the course of the full season.

With Johnson traded away, it's possible that Drake will assume workhorse responsibilities for the Cardinals again in 2020. Arizona failing to addresses the RB position thus far in the offseason illuminates just how much trust they have in Drake, and he projects for a massive workload. He's my RB9 at the moment, and the upside is there for much more.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: 3.09 (WR11)

Amari Cooper has thrived when running routes from the slot in recent years, and the CeeDee Lamb pick suggests that he will likely be used in that capacity even more often in 2020.

Cooper's slot rate fell from 24 percent with Dallas in 2018 to just 14 percent last year. With Randall Cobb gone and Lamb added, expect more slot work for Amari in 2020. Since becoming a Cowboy, Cooper has averaged 2.74 yards per route run from the slot. Not only is the significantly higher than his 2.14 yards per route run from the perimeter, but it is the second-best mark in the entire NFL.

Dallas' passing game could take a step forward in 2020, if Mike McCarthy's coach speak or track record are in any way indicative. In his 13 seasons as a head coach, McCarthy ranked inside the top 15 in rushing attempts just four times. He never had an offense that ranked inside the top-10 in rush attempts. Meanwhile, in Jason Garrett's 10 seasons as a head coach, he ranked inside the top half of the league in rushing attempts six times. Since Zeke arrived in 2016, Garrett's offenses have finished first, fifth, tenth, and eighth in rush attempts per game. McCarthy's offenses ranked 29th, 27th, and 32nd during that time.

The play calling also could look different when in the red zone. Dallas ran at the fourth-highest rate when in the red zone in 2019, but Green Bay's offenses under McCarthy were quite pass-happy when in scoring distance. During the seasons we have the data available, Green Bay had the league's third, eleventh, and second-highest pass-to-rush ratios in the red zone.

The team retained Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, which is more good news for Cooper and the passing game as a whole. Moore's priority on downfield passes was evidenced in Dak Prescott's career-high 12.8 percent deep ball rate and Amari Cooper's career-high air yardage total.

So, this all generally points towards a strong season for Dallas' passing game, but what is the path to a huge year from Cooper, specifically? I see Cooper potentially turning in a career year as a result of one of two things. The first is if Cooper sees a spike in his usage from the slot, as already mentioned. In the one game Randall Cobb missed last year, Tavon Austin and Jason Witten soaked up nearly all the reps from the slot. With none of Cobb, Austin, or Witten on the 2020 Cowboys roster, Cooper and Lamb stand out as the two logical choices for heavy slot usage.

If preseason roles around and we see Cooper lined up in the slot at a higher rate, he should shoot up draft boards. Slot targets are worth 11.5 percent more in Fantasy than perimeter targets. For reference, if you increased Cooper's 2019 Fantasy point total by 11.5 percent, he would have ranked as the WR2 rather than the WR10.

To add to that, Cooper is now playing for Mike McCarthy, who has loved targeting the slot historically. Dating all the way back to 2012, only one of McCarthy's teams has not featured at least one receiver who saw 60-plus targets, and it came in 2018 when Randall Cobb was pacing to finish well above that mark but was limited to just nine games. In 2014 and 15, McCarthy's offenses led the NFL in slot targets. And the propensity for utilizing his slot receiver hasn't been just a product of having a talented slot specialist in Cobb, either. Any time Cobb has missed games with injury, we have seen McCarthy increase the slot snap share of other top weapons -- whether it be Jordy Nelson in 2016 or Davante Adams in 2018.

The other path to massive upside for Cooper could come as a result of the team's 29th-ranked pass-to-rush ratio when in the red zone normalizing without Jason Garrett in charge. As referenced earlier, Mike McCarthy has been very pass-happy when in scoring distance, and the coaching change could mean far more red zone targets for Cooper in 2020. The Cowboys are missing 35.3 percent of their red zone targets from 2019, and it's unlikely that Lamb accounts for even a 20 percent target share as a rookie. Cooper ranked 15th among receivers in end zone targets in 2019, but was just 37th in red zone targets. Both an increase in the team's red zone target total and an increase in Cooper's percentage of said total are realistic outcomes for 2020.

If the slot role belongs to Amari Cooper in 2020, finishing as a top-five WR in Fantasy is within his grasp. If he gets the slot role and the Cowboys pass at a higher rate when in the red zone, Cooper could realistically finish 2020 as the WR1 for Fantasy. That type of upside is unique for a player being selected anywhere near Cooper's current ADP.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 4.07 (WR17)

A.J. Brown enjoyed a historical rookie season, in spite of everything working against him. For starters, the Titans refused to give him a full workload until Week 10. Before that point, Brown didn't register a snap count higher than 70 percent in a single game. He also didn't get to work with Ryan Tannehill -- one of the NFL's most accurate and efficient passers in 2020 -- until Week 7.

Despite questionable usage, Brown led all rookie receivers in yardage and touchdowns in 2020. He was the first rookie receiver in NFL history to top 1,000 yards on fewer than 60 catches. Following Tennessee's Week 11 Bye, Michael Thomas was the only receiver to score more Fantasy points than Brown. Brown scored 102.7 non-PPR points during that time, and no other receiver even topped 90.

As a rookie, Brown finished as the WR10 in non-PPR formats and WR21 in PPR while playing just a third of the season as a full-time starter. I don't expect him to average an insane 20 yards per catch ever again in his career, but the increase in snap rate and targets should be more than enough to offset a dip in efficiency. He's my WR12 for 2020 drafts, just one spot behind fellow breakout wide receiver Calvin Ridley.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 5.08 (WR25)

Robert Woods finished as the WR11 in Fantasy in 2018. In 2019, even with Jared Goff taking a major step backwards, Woods was the WR14. Now, with Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley no longer on the team, Woods is being drafted as the... no, that can't be right. Woods is being drafted as the WR25? He's outproduced that ranking in each of the past three seasons on a per-game basis and has more opportunity in 2020 than ever before.

Woods ADP will surely rise over the ensuing months, but still, the fact that his ADP could ever be this low suggests that there is a clear discrepancy between the public consensus and Woods' actual value. Maybe it is because he doesn't get the job done in spectacular fashion, but Woods is clearly undervalued by the Fantasy community.

But we aren't just searching for value today, we are in pursuit of league-winning upside. Even as a clear value at his ADP, is Woods someone who has the upside to present a weekly advantage over opposing Fantasy squads if things go right for him in 2020? His teammate Cooper Kupp has flashed the upside to be a top-five Fantasy WR, but can the same be said for Woods?

L.A. suddenly has a lot of touches to go around. In 2018, Cooks was one of just eight receivers to top 1,500 air yards. He also ranked second on the Rams in target share, receiving 22 percent of Goff's targets. His 2019 season was derailed by injuries, but Cooks still was on the field and targeted heavily when healthy.

When healthy during the past two seasons, Cooks and Gurley combined to account for nearly a 30 percent target market share and just over 50 percent of the red zone opportunities. That production will be partially replaced by a running back committee and receiver Josh Reynolds, but it's also plausible that Woods, Kupp, and L.A.'s tight end duo of Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett will play larger roles.

If Woods' role in the red zone improves, he could make the leap from a consistent top-15 Fantasy wideout into top-five territory. He finished as a top-15 receiver in Fantasy during each of the past two years while ranking just 19th in red zone targets in 2018 and 59th in 2019.

The main reason for Woods' low red zone target totals is that there just weren't many red zone targets to go around in Los Angeles over the past two seasons. The team leaned on Todd Gurley and their offensive line, running at the NFL's fifth-highest rate when in the red zone. Sean McVay ran at just the 14th-highest rate when in the red zone during his first season as head coach, so there's some hope that he'll return to at least a more neutral approach when in the red zone now that Gurley is no longer the centerpiece of the Rams offense.

Woods' NFL-worst target-to-touchdown ratio over the past two seasons already suggested that some positive regression was coming for him in 2020. He is one of eight players to be targeted at least 130 times in each of the past two seasons. Woods has just eight receiving touchdowns to show for it, while the other seven players have averaged 14.4 trips to the end zone. Everything points towards a correction coming Woods' way in 2020.

You don't have to draft him this high, given how low the Fantasy community seems to be on Woods, but I have him ranked as my WR13. Some notable receivers I would draft Woods ahead of include teammate Cooper Kupp, bust candidate Mike Evans, as well as bigger names like Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr., and Allen Robinson.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 10.12 (WR53)

Johnson finished as the WR39 as a rookie but is being drafted outside of the top-50 at the position heading into 2020. Like, just that alone is enough to make him stand out as one of the most undervalued receivers in Fantasy. And when you consider the context surrounding Johnson's rookie season, what he was able to achieve in his first year is almost unbelievable.

In terms of both their standing on the depth chart and the team's investment in each player, Johnson entered the year clearly behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, and James Washington. Finding the field as a rookie wasn't even a guarantee. And by the time he did find his way onto the field with regularity, Johnson had to endure one of the worst possible QB situations in the NFL while catching passes from Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges.

Per Next Gen Stats, Johnson led all receivers in average yards of separation in 2019, which helped him to make something out of nothing in an otherwise lost season for the Steelers. He saw a snap rate below 40 percent in the first two weeks, but was the WR34 in Fantasy from Week 3 on. He led Pittsburgh in targets per game from that point on, and there's an outside chance that he does the same in 2020 if Smith-Schuster again struggles with injury or inconsistency.

If Ben Roethlisberger returns to something near the level we saw from him over the past few years and Johnson's play doesn't fall off in his second year in the NFL, he has top-24 Fantasy wideout upside. And if Smith-Schuster's season goes anything like last year, Johnson could sneak into the top-15 at the position while operating as Roethlisberger's number one target.

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 12.04 (TE14)

Freed from the shadow of Mark Andrews, Hurst could immediately step into the Austin Hooper role in Atlanta's pass-happy offense. He'll go from the most run-heavy scheme in the NFL to the most pass-heavy. Only four tight ends saw more targets per game than Hooper, who also ranked sixth in red zone targets and third in end zone targets.

Hooper ran more pass routes (36.8) per game than any tight end in the NFL. For reference, Andrews led Baltimore's tight end group with 19.7 routes run per game. Hurst ran just 12.9 per game. Atlanta's willingness to part ways with a second-round pick in the loaded 2020 NFL Draft to acquire Hurst indicates that he will be used as a downfield weapon far more than we saw in Baltimore. He has no competition for playing time at the tight end position and should benefit from the frequent one-on-one coverage that comes with playing alongside Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

Hurst is an afterthought in Fantasy drafts at the moment, going off the board as the 14th tight end on average. I suppose that is because everyone assumes Calvin Ridley's impending breakout will get in the way of a productive season from Hurst. Even if Ridley sees a sizable boost in volume in year three, there should still be plenty of opportunity for Hurst to exceed his expected value at this ADP. I have him ranked as my TE7 entering 2020, and a top-five finish at the position is well within grasp.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 12.10 (QB20)

I have been extremely long-winded in detailing the case for most of these players, so I will keep this one short.

Ryan Tannehill's PFF grade of 92.5 was the highest of all quarterbacks in 2019, and he trailed only Lamar Jackson in fantasy points per start. He's being drafted as the QB20 for 2020.

I don't expect Tannehill to replicate his 2019 efficiency, but he doesn't even have to come close to doing so at this ADP. With another offseason of working with A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis, Tannethrill shouldn't have any trouble finishing as a top-12 QB in Fantasy.

Embracing Variance in Fantasy Football: 10 Players with League-Winning Upside

Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs highlights 10 players with a wide range of outcomes who could end up ranking near the top of their position in Fantasy points if things break their way in 2020.