George Kittle has finished as the TE2 and TE3 in Fantasy points per game during the past two seasons. Early 2020 offseason average draft position data has him going off the board as the TE1, just one spot ahead of Travis Kelce. Unless this is your first season playing Fantasy football, you already know that George Kittle is the freaking man.
You might not realize just how insanely efficient his 2019 season was, though. Kittle not only bested Kelce for the top PFF grade at the tight end position, he led the entire NFL in PFF player grade. No player at any position had a better 2019 season than Kittle, per PFF's grading.
A player's overall PFF grade has little to do with Fantasy production, you say? Well, Kittle also led the NFL in yards per route run -- a stat that correlates nearly as highly with Fantasy points as targets do. Kittle finished first, ahead of all running backs and receivers in yards per route run. In fact, his 2019 mark was the highest posted by any tight end in the history of the NFL, and it came while catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo of all people. Kittle's 2019 was more efficient than any season Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Jimmy Graham could muster while catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, respectively.
So, what kept Kittle from finishing as the unquestioned TE1 in Fantasy? One problem was health -- he missed two full games and part of another. Another issue was volume.
Kittle had no problem getting Garoppolo's attention, as evidenced by his 28.2 percent target market share, or the percentage of team targets that went Kittle's way in the games he played. Kelce's 23.1 percent target share was the next-highest mark at the tight end position.
No, the problem was the lack of pass attempts from San Fran's run-heavy offense. Only the Ravens threw at a lower rate than the Niners, who posted a 48.6 percent run-to-pass ratio in 2019. Only three teams have finished with a ratio below 50 percent over the past five years, and the two other teams had Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson accounted for 30 percent of Baltimore's rushing attempts, while Wilson was responsible for 13 percent of Seattle's.
Garoppolo accounted for just nine percent of San Fran's rushing attempts. This is worth noting, because it makes San Fran's 51.4 percent rush rate in 2019 seem all the more unsustainable. Almost all of those attempts came from the running backs, and RB carries are tied more to the percentage of plays during which the team held a lead, which is likely to fluctuate on a year-to-year basis. Everything came together perfectly for the 49ers in 2019 -- Sportsbooks set San Francisco's win total at just eight games, but they ended up finishing 13-3.
Only the Ravens and Chiefs spent more time playing with a lead or tie than the Niners, who only trailed on 28.7 percent of their offensive plays. Sportsbooks have San Fran's win total set at 10.5 for 2020, so it is possible that they again are among the NFL's top teams. Even if they reach their implied win total, probability doesn't favor San Fran's chances of another 13-win season.
Fewer wins means less offensive plays spent playing with the lead, which in turn means a more balanced approach. Combine that with the potential for an even larger role with former teammate Emmanuel Sanders in New Orleans, and it's realistic to expect Kittle's 107 target total from 2019 to finish closer to the 136 targets he saw in 2018. We've seen Kittle's yards per route run rise from 1.41 in 2017, to 2.81 in 2018, and all the way up to 3.12 last year. Another jump in his fourth season isn't completely out of the question, but all he needs to do is sustain a mark somewhere around three yards per route run. If Kittle's 24.1 routes run per game in 2019 comes close to matching his 30.5 mark from 2018, a yards per route run of three would put him in the 1,400-1,500 yard range.
Projecting a tight end for that type of yardage seems insane, but we have literally never seen a tight end capable of piling up yardage like George Kittle. He already holds the NFL single-season record for most yards by a tight end, at 1,377, and he fell just four yards short of the record for most receiving yards in a game for a tight end last season. If San Fran ups their pass rate even a little bit in 2020, it could result in some truly ridiculous numbers for Kittle.
Kittle has ranked fourth at the tight end position in red zone targets per game in each of the past two seasons, but ranks 25th and 16th in red zone touchdowns, respectively. Somehow, Kittle's 46 red zone targets and 16 end zone targets have netted him just five touchdowns across the past two seasons. Given Kittle's skillset, that is difficult to believe.
Kittle has been able to post some of the strongest Fantasy seasons at the TE position in recent memory, and it has come without even average touchdown production for the position. If Kittle has better luck in the touchdown department in 2020, and the 49ers are forced to increase their pass rate, we could be looking at the best Fantasy season ever for a tight end -- that is the type of upside Kittle possesses.
Kittle has been among the best Fantasy producers at the tight end position over the past two seasons, in spite of them being just his second and third in the league. And a longer look at how Kittle has delivered those results would suggest that there is still some meat left on the bone.
There are several ways in which Kittle could increase his Fantasy output. If even one of them occurs, he'll likely be the TE1 in Fantasy in 2020. If several of the possibilities come to fruition, Kittle could post one of the best Fantasy seasons we've ever seen. Kittle could simply see another natural step forward in his progression in his fourth pro season and second full one with Garoppolo at QB.
Another way for Kittle's Fantasy production to increase is to just maintain his level of play and see more targets as a result of San Fran being forced to throw more in 2020. The 2019 Niners are one of just three teams to finish with a pass-to-rush ratio below 50 percent over the past five seasons, and a repeat in 2020 would be historically unprecedented.
A third path to increased output is better luck in the touchdown department. Kittle ranks fourth at the tight end position in red zone targets during each of the past two seasons, yet somehow was 25th and 16th in red zone touchdowns during those years. Kittle has all the tools to dominate in the red zone, and if he is able to convert his red zone opportunities into scores at a higher rate, his Fantasy ceiling is through the roof.
At the moment, Kittle is being drafted just one spot ahead of Travis Kelce. With the Chiefs retaining both Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson, as well as adding a pass-catching threat in Ricky Seals-Jones to the tight end group, Kelce has a lot of competition for targets in his age-31 season. Given all of Kittle's potential paths to a truly-unique Fantasy contribution from the tight end position, he is the no-brainer pick of Kelce in 2020.
