For the first time in 20 years, Tom Brady will not be a member of the New England Patriots. after landing Brady, but .
Brady joins a Tampa Bay offense that is loaded with weapons and has churned out some ridiculous numbers through the air over the past couple years. In terms of maintaining his own Fantasy relevancy, Brady couldn't have chosen a better destination.
Here's how the Bucs and Patriots compare over the past couple seasons:
2019:
Tampa Bay -- 7th in pass-to-rush ratio, 1st in pass attempts, 1st in air yards
New England -- 19th in pass-to-rush ratio, 4th in pass attempts, 9th in air yards
2018:
Tampa Bay -- 6th in pass-to-rush ratio, 1st in pass attempts, 1st in air yards
New England -- 26th in pass-to-rush ratio, 10th in pass attempts, 9th in air yards
Now, Brady is a different type of passer than Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick. His skill set in his age-43 season doesn't seem like a natural fit in Bruce Arians' vertical downfield approach, and it is likely that Tampa Bay will conform their offense to best fit their $30M investment. I wouldn't expect the Bucs to lead the NFL in air yards in 2020.
Winston ranked fourth in deep ball rate last year, throwing it 20-plus yards in the air on 15.8 percent of his attempts. Here's the deep ball breakdown for his top two receivers:
Evans -- 407 deep yards (8th in the NFL) and 21.9 percent deep ball rate (percent of targets that were deep targets)
Godwin -- 298 deep yards (22nd) and just a 14.9 percent deep ball rate
Evans benefits more from the Arians-Winston combination than Godwin, and the transition to Brady's playstyle could be a bit of an issue, as evidenced by the numbers below:
2019:
Brady -- 10.1 percent deep ball rate (21st), 41.9 percent deep adjusted completion rate (11th)
Winston -- 15.8 percent deep ball rate (4th), 44.4 percent deep adjusted completion rate (8th)
I used PFF's 'receiving by direction' tool to chart every target Evans has received over the past three seasons to get a better idea of where he does most of his damage and compare that to Brady's performance when targeting that area of the field.
Over 50 percent of Evans' targets over the past three seasons have come in the 10-20 yard range, with almost one-third of his targets coming 10-20 yards down the field and between the numbers. That is an area of the field where Brady has excelled when throwing to. Last season, Brady had a passer rating of 136.4 when targeting the mid-left, 114 when targeting the mid-center, and 133.2 when targeting the mid-right. For reference, Winston had a passer rating of just 92.8, 94.9, and 97.1, respectively, when targeting those areas of the field. So, in the area where the majority of Evans' targets came, advantage Brady.
While the majority of his targets came in the 10-20 yard range, a case could be made that Evans' Fantasy value -- or his upside, at least -- is tied more to his targets that came 20-plus yards downfield. Despite having 191 targets in the 10-20 yard range and just 82 targets in the 20-plus yard range, Evans scored 10 touchdowns on throws that traveled 20-plus yards in the air and just eight on throws that traveled 10-20 yards.
That is noteworthy because Brady has struggled a bit when pushing the ball downfield -- especially when targeting the deep-center of the field. Brady's passer rating when targeting the deep-center of the field has been below 80 in each of the past three seasons. Last year, he posted a passer rating of 88.4 when targeting the deep-left, 77.8 to the deep-center, and 106.3 to the deep-right. Winston posted a passer rating of 36.2, 97.3, and 133.1, respectively.
Passer rating is impacted a lot by the receivers, so PFF's passing grade may be the better indicator. And while PFF graded Brady as elite (98.5) when targeting the deep left and right last year, his average grade over the past two seasons might be more telling of what to expect entering his 21st season. Brady's average passer grade when passing to the deep-left over the past two years is a stellar 97.9, but that drops to 80.1 when targeting the deep-center and 83.3 when targeting the deep-right, both of which are well below Winston's grades last season.
In addition to seeing fewer (and potentially less-accurate) downfield targets, Evans is likely to see fewer targets in general with Brady at the helm. Evans has benefited from a Bucs offense that has led the NFL in pass attempts in back-to-back seasons, and that could drastically change in 2020. The primary reason Tampa has been so pass heavy was the constant negative game scripts they found themselves in as a result of Winston's erratic play. They were leading for just 36.9 percent of their offensive plays in 2019 and just 31.7 percent in 2018. That should change with an improved defense and Brady under center. If the Bucs add a running back they feel confident in, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tampa fall from first to middle of the pack in terms of passing volume.
There's a possibility that not only will the overall target total in Tampa fall with Brady at the helm, but that the percentage of said targets that go to wide receivers could also fall. In 2019, 62.6 percent of Jameis Winston's pass attempts were directed at wide receivers. Over the past five seasons, Brady's receivers have accounted for a 55 percent target market share. Godwin and Evans were responsible for a combined 45 percent of Tampa Bay's targets in the games they played in. The highest combined target share for two of Brady's receivers over the past five years was 39.7 percent in 2016.
Evans' 2019 Fantasy value was kept afloat by massive spike weeks in which Winston locked onto him and aggressively and repeatedly attacked downfield -- often while trying to erase a large deficit on the scoreboard. Brady spreads the ball around more, which could result in fewer ceiling games for Evans. That, plus the overall downtick in passing volume in Tampa Bay could move Evans out of top-10 or even top-15 Fantasy WR consideration.
